The vorticity and angular momentum budgets of Asian summer monsoon     

P. L. S. Rao  U. C. Mohanty  P. V. S. Raju  M. A. Arain 《Journal of Earth System Science》2004,113(3):281-298

The study delineates the vorticity and angular momentum balances of Asian summer monsoon during the evolution and established phases. It also elucidates the differences between these balances in the National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (NCMRWF) analysis fields. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for a 40 year period (1958-97) and the NCMRWF analysis for a three year (1994-96) period are made use of for the purpose. The time mean summer monsoon circulation is bifurcated into stable mean and transient eddy components and the mean component is elucidated. The generation of vorticity due to stretching of isobars balances most of the vorticity transported out of the monsoon domain during the evolution period. However, during the established period, the transportation by the relative and planetary vorticity components exceeds the generation due to stretching. The effective balancing mechanism is provided by vorticity generation due to sub-grid scale processes. The flux convergence of omega and relative momenta over the monsoon domain is effectively balanced by pressure torque during the evolution and established phases. Nevertheless, the balance is stronger during the established period due to the increase in the strength of circulation. Both the NCMRWF and NCEP fields indicate the mean features related to vorticity and angular momentum budgets realistically. Apart from the oceanic bias (strong circulation over oceans rather than continents), the summer monsoon circulation indicated by the NCEP is feeble compared to NCMRWF. The significant terms in the large-scale budgets of vorticity and angular momentum enunciate this aspect  相似文献   

A Preliminary Study on the Use of NCEP Temperature Images and Additive Tectonic Stress from Astro- Tidal- Triggering to Forecast Short-Impending Earthquakes   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Ma Weiyu 《中国地震研究》2007,21(1):85-93

Taking the three earthquakes which occurred in Tibet, China during the period of July 12 to August 25, 2004 as an example,the paper analyses the M_S≥6.0 earthquakes that occurred in China and M_S≥7.0 earthquakes that occurred overseas since May of 2003 by combining the image data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction of America(NCEP)with the additive tectonic stress from astro-tidal-triggering (ATSA) and makes the following conclusions: The abnormal temperature image data of NCEP can better reflect the spatial-temporal evolution process of tectonic earthquake activity; The ATSA has an evident triggering effect on the activity of a fault when the terra stress is in critical status; using the NCEP images and the ATSA to forecast short-impending earthquake is a new concept; The three earthquakes occurred during the same phase of the respective ATSA cycle, i.e. that occurred at the time when the ATSA reached the relatively steady end of a peak, rather than at the time when the variation rate was maximal. In addition, the author discovered that the occurrence time of other earthquake cases during 2003～2004 in Tibet was also in the same phase of the above-mentioned cycles, and therefore, further study of this feature is needed with more earthquake cases in other areas over longer periods of time.  相似文献   

河北平原一次春季强对流天气分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李江波  闫巨盛  马凤莲 《气象》2007,33(9):74-82

利用NCEP6小时一次1°×1°再分析资料、常规高空地面资料和自动站、FY-2C卫星云图及石家庄CINRAD/SA型多普勒雷达等资料,从天气形势、物理机制、雷达回波和云图演变特征、地形作用等方面入手,分析了河北平原一次春季强对流天气的演变和成因。结果表明:这次强对流天气过程发生在高空槽由垂直结构向前倾结构转变的过程中,中高层干冷平流、低层暖湿平流的大气层结增强了对流不稳定的发展,飑线是此次强对流天气的直接影响系统;太行山地形和平原南部的中尺度辐合线,对飑线系统的触发、组织、移动具有重要作用,强对流区发生在地面中尺度辐合线南侧的偏南气流里。分析还发现,低层θse高能区、水汽通量大值区、强的辐合上升区和CAPE的高值区等物理量场都与强对流天气区有较好的对应关系。  相似文献   

Reliability Analyses of Anomalies of NCEP/NCAR Reanalyzed Wind Speed and Surface Air Temperature in Climate Change Research in China   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

SHI Xiaohui  XU Xiangde  XIE Li''an 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2007,21(3):320-333

By means of varied statistical methods,such as normalized root mean square error(RMSE),correlation analysis,empirical orthogonal function(EOF)decomposition,etc.,the reliability of the varied seasonal anomalies of NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed wind speed and surface air temperature(SAT)data frequently used in the climate change research in China is studied.Results show that RMSEs of meteorological variables are smaller in eastern China than in western China,i.e.,the reliability of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis in eastern China is better than that in western China.This could be due to effects of the topography in the reanalysis model and the disposition of"dense-in-eastern-and-sparse-in-western"of meteorological stations in China. The RMSE of anomalies of reanalyzed wind speeds decreases with increasing height,further confirming the possible impact of topography on reliability of reanalysis.Results of correlation analysis inversely correspond to those of RMSE analysis,i.e.,if the RMSE is larger,the correlation between reanalyzed and observed data is worse,and vice versa.It is found from comparing the EOF eigenvectors of anomaly of reanalyzed and observed data that if a meteorological variable has smaller RMSE,the spatial patterns of corresponding EOF eigenvectors of anomaly of reanalyzed and observed data are similar and their time coefficients are significantly correlated,and vice versa.Therefore,the similarity of EOF modes and the consistency of their time coefficients can be used to objectively assess the reliability of the reanalysis.On the whole,the reliability of the reanalyzed wind speed is better in spring,summer,and autumn,but worse in winter;and for the reanalyzed SAT,it is the best in winter and the worst in summer.  相似文献   

大气水汽总量的垂直分解     

刘晓阳  毛节泰  李成才  王美华 《高原气象》2007,26(3):453-459

利用1986-2001年探空资料, 分析了我国5个不同地区的水汽垂直分布规律, 建立了大气边界层以上比湿随气压为幂函数分布, 边界层内比湿随气压线性分布的模型, 并用2004年11月-2005年10月的探空资料、 NCEP再分析资料作了对比检验和误差分析, 最后将模型应用于微波辐射计反演水汽总量的垂直分解.结果表明, 模型分解产生的误差越接近地面则越大, 对于1 mm总量的水汽, 分解得到的比湿最大误差为0.1 g·kg-1.  相似文献   

NCEP和ECMWF资料表征南海夏季风的差异   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

郑彬  谷德军  李春晖 《热带气象学报》2006,22(3):217-222

比较美国国家环境预报中心（NCEP）和欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）的再分析资料,分析了二者用低层风场表征南海夏季风上的差异.结果表明,NCEP得到的南海夏季风指数有明显的减小趋势,而ECMWF则没有;二者在年际尺度上都能较好地表征南海夏季风强度,而年代际尺度上有明显的位相差.与西沙站的探空资料比较结果表明,NCEP在经向风上更接近观测资料,而经向风的趋势变化正是西沙站西南风减小趋势的主要贡献项;ECMWF资料在年代际尺度变化上更接近观测资料.与1998年南海夏季风试验SCSMEX的再分析资料比较显示,NCEP资料在空间上与SCSMEX资料更相似.  相似文献   

马斯克林高压的变化特征   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

崔锦  杨修群  张爱忠 《气象科技》2008,36(1):35-42

利用历史天气图和NCEP再分析资料,普查了1980～2002年出现在华北平原地区的回流天气过程.依据500 hPa环流形势,对华北平原的回流天气形势分为两种:两槽一脊型和高纬低压带型.针对不同的天气分型对产生回流天气的动力条件、水汽来源进行了合成诊断分析.结果表明:涡度和散度的垂直分布与一般的降水过程不同,低层存在辐散和反气旋环流;自东北南下经渤海回流到华北平原的空气是比较干的.该文分析结果有助于预报业务人员了解回流天气,提高华北回流天气的预报准确率.  相似文献   

Artificial neural network approach for estimation of surface specific humidity and air temperature using multifrequency scanning microwave radiometer     

Randhir Singh  B. G. Vasudevan  P. K. Pal  P. C. Joshi 《Journal of Earth System Science》2004,113(1):89-101

Microwave sensor MSMR (Multifrequency Scanning Microwave Radiometer) data onboard Oceansat-1 was used for retrieval of monthly averages of near surface specific humidity (Q _a) and air temperature (T _a) by means of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The MSMR measures the microwave radiances in 8 channels at frequencies of 6.6, 10.7, 18 and 21 GHz for both vertical and horizontal polarizations. The artificial neural networks (ANN) technique is employed to find the transfer function relating the input MSMR observed brightness temperatures and output (Q _a andT _a) parameters. Input data consist of nearly 28 months (June 1999 – September 2001) of monthly averages of MSMR observed brightness temperature and surface marine observations ofQ _a andT _a from Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS). The performance of the algorithm is assessed with independent surface marine observations. The results indicate that the combination of MSMR observed brightness temperatures as input parameters provides reasonable estimates of monthly averaged surface parameters. The global root mean square (rms) differences are 1.0‡C and 1.1 g kg⁻¹ for air temperature and surface specific humidity respectively.  相似文献   

NCEP/NCAR40年再分析资料图形显示系统     

严军  刘健文 《气象》2002,28(5):37-39

针对美国国家环境预测中心（NCEP）及国家大气研究中心（NCAR）的40年（1958－1997）全球再分析资料，利用数据库开发软件Visual FoxPro结合气象图形显示和分析系统软件GrADS建立了一个图形显示处理系统，能够方便地绘制资料集中提供的各种气象要素在不同区域、不同时间和不同投影下的图形，还可导出所需要的数据供进一步研究。  相似文献   

Characteristics of tropical Pacific SST predictability in coupled GCM forecasts using the NCEP CFS     

Emilia K. Jin  James L. Kinter III 《Climate Dynamics》2009,32(5):675-691

The limits of predictability of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in coupled models are investigated based on retrospective forecasts of sea surface temperature (SST) made with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) coupled forecast system (CFS). The influence of initial uncertainties and model errors associated with coupled ENSO dynamics on forecast error growth are discussed. The total forecast error has maximum values in the equatorial Pacific and its growth is a strong function of season irrespective of lead time. The largest growth of systematic error of SST occurs mainly over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific and near the southeastern coast of the Americas associated with ENSO events. After subtracting the systematic error, the root-mean-square error of the retrospective forecast SST anomaly also shows a clear seasonal dependency associated with what is called spring barrier. The predictability with respect to ENSO phase shows that the phase locking of ENSO to the mean annual cycle has an influence on the seasonal dependence of skill, since the growth phase of ENSO events is more predictable than the decay phase. The overall characteristics of predictability in the coupled system are assessed by comparing the forecast error growth and the error growth between two model forecasts whose initial conditions are 1 month apart. For the ensemble mean, there is fast growth of error associated with initial uncertainties, becoming saturated within 2 months. The subsequent error growth follows the slow coupled mode related the model’s incorrect ENSO dynamics. As a result, the Lorenz curve of the ensemble mean NINO3 index does not grow, because the systematic error is identical to the same target month. In contrast, the errors of individual members grow as fast as forecast error due to the large instability of the coupled system. Because the model errors are so systematic, their influence on the forecast skill is investigated by analyzing the erroneous features in a long simulation. For the ENSO forecasts in CFS, a constant phase shift with respect to lead month is clear, using monthly forecast composite data. This feature is related to the typical ENSO behavior produced by the model that, unlike the observations, has a long life cycle with a JJA peak. Therefore, the systematic errors in the long run are reflected in the forecast skill as a major factor limiting predictability after the impact of initial uncertainties fades out.  相似文献