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101.
Zhang Langping 《中国地震研究》2007,21(2):147-155
The variation of Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) against time for earthquakes in Kerman Province, Iran, on February 22, 2005, M6.4 and in Lorestan Province, Iran, on March 31, 2006, M6.1, has been calculated and analysed in this paper. The tempo-spatial scanning of LURR in the region of Iran during January 1, 2003 to March 31, 2006 has been conducted, with 1 year as a time-window, 1 month as a time-step, and the comparison of the LURR anomalous regions in 2004 with the actual earthquakes with M≥5.0 in the next year (2005) is also given, which shows that 11 earthquakes with M≥5.0 occurred in LURR anomalous regions while 12 earthquakes with M≥5.0 in LURR regions in 2005. Furthermore, the seismicity in this region is studied by investigating the evolvement of the anomalous LURR regions. 相似文献
102.
Mohammad Ashtari Jafari 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(1):237-252
The Bayesian probability estimation seems to have efficiencies that make it suitable for calculating different parameters
of seismicity. Generally this method is able to combine prior information on seismicity while at the same time including statistical
uncertainty associated with the estimation of the parameters used to quantify seismicity, in addition to the probabilistic
uncertainties associated with the inherent randomness of earthquake occurrence. In this article a time-independent Bayesian
approach, which yields the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude will be exceeded at certain time intervals is examined
for the region of Alborz, Iran, in order to consider the following consequences for the city of Tehran. This area is located
within the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Many active faults affect the Alborz, most of which are parallel to the
range and accommodate the present day oblique convergence across it. Tehran, the capital of Iran, with millions of inhabitants
is located near the foothills of the southern Central Alborz. This region has been affected several times by historical and
recent earthquakes that confirm the importance of seismic hazard assessment through it. As the first step in this study an
updated earthquake catalog is compiled for the Alborz. Then, by assuming a Poisson distribution for the number of earthquakes
which occur at a certain time interval, the probabilistic earthquake occurrence is computed by the Bayesian approach. The
highest probabilities are found for zone AA and the lowest probabilities for zones KD and CA, meanwhile the overall probability
is high. 相似文献
103.
应用检测地震活动水平相对变化的区域-时间-长度算法(RTL算法),分析研究了青海地区有相对较完备小震资料的14次6级以上震例。结果表明,该区6级以上地震发生前在源区或近源区大约120km半径的空间尺度内,‰值能检测到明显的1年内和2年内时间尺度的中期地震活动异常,地震活动增强的“上升型”异常和地震活动平静的“下降型”异常各占一半。 相似文献
104.
105.
An eruption on the eastern flank of Piton de la Fournaise volcano started on 16 November, 2002 after 10 months of quiescence.
After a relatively constant level of activity during the first 13 days of the eruption, lava discharge, volcanic tremor and
seismicity increased from 29 November to 3 December. Lava effusion suddenly ceased on 3 December while shallow earthquakes
beneath the Dolomieu summit crater were still recorded at a rate of about one per minute. This unusual activity continued
and increased in intensity over the next three weeks, ending with the formation of a pit crater within Dolomieu. Based on
ground deformation, measured by rapid-static and continuous GPS and an extensometer, seismic data, and lava effusion patterns,
the eruptive period is divided into five stages: 1) slow summit inflation and sporadic seismicity; 2) rapid summit inflation
and a short seismic crisis; 3) rapid flank inflation, onset of summit deflation, sporadic seismicity, accompanied by stable
effusion; 4) flank inflation, coupled with summit deflation, intense seismicity, and increased lava effusion; and finally
5) little deflation, intense shallow seismicity, and the end of lava effusion. We propose a model in which the pre-intrusive
inflation of Stage 1 in the months preceding the eruption was caused by a magma body located near sea level. The magma reservoir
was the source of an intrusion rising under the summit during Stage 2. In Stage 3, the magma ponded at a shallow level in
the edifice while the lateral injection of a radial dike reached the surface on the eastern flank of the basaltic volcano,
causing lava effusion. Pressure decrease in the magmatic plumbing system followed, resulting in upward migration of a collapse
front, forming a subterranean column of debris by faulting and stoping. This caused intense shallow seismicity, increase in
discharge of lava and volcanic tremor at the lateral vent in Stage 4 and, eventually the formation of a pit crater in Stage
5. 相似文献
106.
107.
东南沿海地区的断裂与地震 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
中国东部,相对来说东南沿海地区的地震活动较为频繁,断裂构造也十分发育。地震活动与断裂构造有非常密切的关系,震中与断裂构造的空间分布也关系密切。通过对东南沿海大量震例的调查和研究,分析三组断裂与地震的关系,得出东南沿海地区东西向、北东向和北西向的三组断裂构造,分别构成了区内的衰减构造、控震构造和发震构造,形成了东南沿海陆缘构造活动带。 相似文献
108.
在乌恰地区地震活动呈现长期平静异常的背景下,通过多种方法对2002年12月25日乌恰5.8级地震进行了1-3年的中长期预测。应用“模糊地震活动度”和“空区参数法”两种方法进行了1年和半年的中期预测,结合对该地区小震活动动态的分析与震例分析,尤其是预警地震的分析判断,提出了3个月的短期预测意见,较好地预测了这次地震。最后对预测情况进行了正反两个方面的总结和反思,提出了七点看法。 相似文献
109.
Strong earthquake occurrence (M ≥ 6.0) onshore and offshore the Cyprus Island constitutes significant seismic hazard because they occur close to populated areas. Seismicity is weak south of the Island along the Cyprean Arc and strong events are aligned along the Paphos transform fault and Larnaka thrust fault zone that were already known and the Lemessos thrust fault zone that defined in the present study. By combining the past history of strong (M ≥ 6.0) events and the long-term tectonic loading on these major fault zones, the evolution of the stress field from 1896 until the present is derived. Although uncertainties exist in the location, magnitude and fault geometries of the early earthquakes included in our stress evolutionary model, the resulting stress field provides an explanation of later earthquake triggering. It was evidenced that the locations of all the strong events were preceded by a static stress change that encouraged failure. The current state of the evolved stress field may provide evidence for the future seismic hazard. Areas of positive static stress changes were identified in the southwestern offshore area that can be considered as possible sites of future seismic activity. 相似文献
110.
M. Ruiz O. Gasp J. Gallart J. Díaz J.A. Pulgar J. García-Sansegundo C. Lpez-Fernndez J.M. Gonzlez-Cortina 《Tectonophysics》2006,424(3-4):223
On September 18, 2004, a 4.6 mbLg earthquake was widely felt in the region around Pamplona, at the western Pyrenees. Preliminary locations reported an epicenter less than 20 km ESE of Pamplona and close to the Itoiz reservoir, which started impounding in January 2004. The area apparently lacks of significant seismic activity in recent times. After the main shock, which was preceded by series of foreshocks reaching magnitudes of 3.3 mbLg, a dense temporal network of 13 seismic stations was deployed there to monitor the aftershocks series and to constrain the hypocentral pattern. Aftershock determinations obtained with a double-difference algorithm define a narrow epicentral zone of less than 10 km2, ESE–WNW oriented. The events are mainly concentrated between 3 and 9 km depth. Focal solutions were computed for the main event and 12 aftershocks including the highest secondary one of 3.8 mbLg. They show mainly normal faulting with some strike-slip component and one of the nodal planes oriented NW–SE and dipping to the NE. Cross-correlation techniques applied to detect and associate events with similar waveforms, provided up to 33 families relating the 67% of the 326 relocated aftershocks. Families show event clusters grouped by periods and migrating from NW to SE. Interestingly, the narrow epicentral zone inferred here is located less than 4 km away from the 111-m high Itoiz dam. These hypocentral results, and the correlation observed between fluctuations of the reservoir water level and the seismic activity, favour the explanation of this foreshock–aftershock series as a rapid response case of reservoir-triggered seismicity, burst by the first impoundment of the Itoiz reservoir. The region is folded and affected by shallow dipping thrusts, and the Itoiz reservoir is located on the hangingwall of a low angle southward verging thrust, which might be a case sensible to water level fluctuations. However, continued seismic monitoring in the coming years is mandatory in this area to infer more reliable seismotectonic and hazard assessments. 相似文献