Observation of vertical E-region neutral winds in two intense auroral arcs     

S. Peteherych  G.G. Shepherd  J.K. Walker 《Planetary and Space Science》1985,33(8):869-873

Vertical winds have been observed by optical Doppler measurements of the 557.7 nm emission in the aurora, using a Fabry-Perot spectrometer. Both upward and downward winds were observed, of 15 m s^?1 magnitude. The upward winds were associated with westward overhead currents, and with low altitude aurora (～ 110 km) as determined by the auroral temperature, while a high altitude aurora (～ 135 km) and eastward currents were associated with the downward wind. The Lorentz force of these currents has the wrong direction to act as a direct forcing mechanism. It is concluded that Joule heating is directly responsible for the upward winds, while the divergence of horizontal winds is responsible for the downward winds.  相似文献   

An observation of polar aurora and airglow from the ISIS-II spacecraft     

G.G. Shepherd  C.D. Anger  L.H. Brace  J.R. Burrows  W.J. Heikkila  J. Hoffman  E.J. Maier  J.H. Whitteker 《Planetary and Space Science》1973,21(5):819-829

This is a preliminary but comprehensive report on coordinated data obtained with the ISIS-II spacecraft, fourth in the ISIS series, launched 1 April 1971, into a near circular 1400 km orbit. The capabilites of the ISIS-I spacecraft have been extended in a number of ways, including the global mapping of the 3914 Å, 5577 Å and 6300 Å emissions. Data obtained during a 30-min pass over the south pole depict the nightside oval and polar cap, as well as mid-latitude airglow effects; these data are described and discussed.  相似文献   

Preliminary investigations of the tsunami hazard of Kick'em Jenny submarine volcano     

Martin S. Smith  John B. Shepherd 《Natural Hazards》1993,7(3):257-277

Kick'em Jenny is a submarine volcano situated 9 kilometres north of Grenada in the Lesser Antilles. A preliminary study suggests that the volcano is a prime candidate for tsunamigenic eruptions on a potentially hazardous scale, possibly affecting the whole of the Eastern Caribbean region. The uniqueness of individual volcanic eruptions means that attempts to generalise tsunamigenic mechanisms are extremely tentative. However, the theory of underwater explosion generated water waves is applicable to submarine volcanoes to model explosive eruptions. Using this theory, initial maximum ocean surface displacements are calculated for Kick'em Jenny hydroeruptions, corresponding to various event magnitudes (up to a worst-case scenario eruption on the scale of Krakatau, 1883). Wave propagation theories are then applied to the resulting tsunami wave dispersion, before beach shoaling equations are used to estimate the maximum tsunami run-up at adjacent coastal areas. Maps of the region have been prepared showing the paths of the wave-fronts (ray-tracing), travel times and maximum wave run-up amplitudes along coastlines. Finally, an attempt is made to assess how great a hazard the volcano represents, by considering the probability of each magnitude event occurring.  相似文献   

Long-term declines in two apex predators,bull sharks (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Carcharhinus leucas</Emphasis>) and alligator gar (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Atractosteus spatula</Emphasis>), in Lake Pontchartrain,an oligohaline estuary in southeastern Louisiana     

Martin T. O’Connell  Travis D. Shepherd  Ann M. U. O’Connell  Ransom A. Myers 《Estuaries and Coasts》2007,30(4):567-574

We analyzed historic and current fishery independent data to determine if the abundance of two apex predators, bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas) and alligator gar (Atractosteus spatula), in Lake Pontchartrain had changed significantly over the last half century. Lake Pontchartrain is an environmentally degraded oligohaline estuary in southeastern Louisiana that has experienced considerable changes in fish assemblage composition over this interval. Using gillnet, beach seine, and trawl data collected during three time periods (1953–1955, 1977–1978, and 1996–2005), we analyzed trends in abundance forC. leucas andA. spatula using generalized linear models with a negative binomial error structure and a log link. Lake Pontchartrain data were divided into four spatial locations (northwest, northeast, southwest, southeast) since each region represents a unique combination of anthropogenic and natural influences that could affect catches. For each species and gear type, we produced log-likelihood profiles for the instantaneous rate of change in relative abundance through time. Raw catches were generally lower for both species in the later surveys.C. leucas were not captured in beach seines since the 1950s andA. spatula were rarely captured in trawls or seines since the 1970s. Likelihood profiles of changes in abundance forC. leucas andA. spatula showed very large declines in both species since 1953.C. leucas declined by 98.6% (95% CI: 73.4–99.9%) in gillnets and became functionally extirpated in beach seines with a decline of 99.9% (95% CI: 23–99.9%). Among all gears,C. leucas declined by the same rate as in gillnets. The decline inA. spatula was also large with a decrease of 98.6% (95% CI: 73.4–99.9%) in beach seines and a decline of 99.2% (95% CI: 54.8–99.9%) in trawls since 1953. Catches ofA. spatula in gillnets did not show a significant change over the study period. The continued decline of these two apex predators could seriously affect efforts to restore this degraded estuarine ecosystem.  相似文献   

Millennial timescale carbon cycle and climate change in an efficient Earth system model     

T. M. Lenton  M. S. Williamson  N. R. Edwards  R. Marsh  A. R. Price  A. J. Ridgwell  J. G. Shepherd  S. J. Cox 《Climate Dynamics》2006,26(7-8):687-711

A new Earth system model, GENIE-1, is presented which comprises a 3-D frictional geostrophic ocean, phosphate-restoring marine biogeochemistry, dynamic and thermodynamic sea-ice, land surface physics and carbon cycling, and a seasonal 2-D energy-moisture balance atmosphere. Three sets of model climate parameters are used to explore the robustness of the results and for traceability to earlier work. The model versions have climate sensitivity of 2.8–3.3°C and predict atmospheric CO₂ close to present observations. Six idealized total fossil fuel CO₂ emissions scenarios are used to explore a range of 1,100–15,000 GtC total emissions and the effect of rate of emissions. Atmospheric CO₂ approaches equilibrium in year 3000 at 420–5,660 ppmv, giving 1.5–12.5°C global warming. The ocean is a robust carbon sink of up to 6.5 GtC year⁻¹. Under ‘business as usual’, the land becomes a carbon source around year 2100 which peaks at up to 2.5 GtC year⁻¹. Soil carbon is lost globally, boreal vegetation generally increases, whilst under extreme forcing, dieback of some tropical and sub-tropical vegetation occurs. Average ocean surface pH drops by up to 1.15 units. A Greenland ice sheet melt threshold of 2.6°C local warming is only briefly exceeded if total emissions are limited to 1,100 GtC, whilst 15,000 GtC emissions cause complete Greenland melt by year 3000, contributing 7 m to sea level rise. Total sea-level rise, including thermal expansion, is 0.4–10 m in year 3000 and ongoing. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shuts down in two out of three model versions, but only under extreme emissions including exotic fossil fuel resources.  相似文献   

Learning with Local Help: Expanding the Dialogue on Climate Change and Water Management in the Okanagan Region, British Columbia, Canada     

Stewart Cohen  Denise Neilsen  Scott Smith  Tina Neale  Bill Taylor  Mark Barton  Wendy Merritt  Younes Alila  Philippa Shepherd  Roger Mcneill  James Tansey  Jeff Carmichael  Stacy Langsdale 《Climatic change》2006,75(3):331-358

The research activity described in this report is a comprehensive regional assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and options for adaptation in the Okanagan Basin. The ultimate goal of the project is to develop integrated climate change and water resource scenarios to stimulate a multistakeholder discussion on the implications of climate change for water management in the region. The paper describes two main objectives: (a) providing a set of research products that will be of relevance to regional interests in the Okanagan, and (b) establishing a methodology for participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change impacts and adaptation that could be applied to climate-related concerns in Canada and other countries. This collaborative study has relied on field research, computer-based models, and dialogue exercises to generate an assessment of future implications, and to learn about regional views on the prospects for adaptation. Along the way, it has benefited from strong partnerships with governments, researchers, local water practitioners, and user groups. Building on the scenario-based study components, and a series of interviews and surveys undertaken for the water management and adaptation case study components, a set of stakeholder dialogue sessions were organized which focused on identifying preferred adaptation options and processes for their implementation. Rather than seeking consensus on the “best” option or process, regional interests were asked to consider a range of available options as part of an adaptation portfolio that could address both supply side and demand side aspects of water resources management in the Okanagan. The Canadian Crown reserves the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright.  相似文献   

Seismicity and seismic intensities in Jamaica,West Indies: A problem in risk assessment     

John B. Shepherd  W. P. Aspinall 《地震工程与结构动力学》1980,8(4):315-335

A review of the history of earthquake observations in Jamaica is presented; there have been several high-intensity earthquakes in the last 300 years. The observed seismicity of the Jamaica region is discussed in the context of what is known of regional tectonics, and possible source regions of earthquakes are identified but a comparison between instrumentally determined seismicity and macroseismicity shows that the instrumental data are of insufficient quantity or quality to permit direct assessment of earthquake risk by conventional techniques. An alternative approach has been adopted; consideration of the macroseismic record suggests that the peak acceleration in rock with 90 per cent probability of not being exceeded in any 50-year period is of order 0.3 g but that there are very significant local variations caused by near-surface geology. Especially this applies to the capital, Kingston, and envelope response spectra are derived for shallow, intermediate and deep thickness of sediments under the city to demonstate the possibility that localized amplification may occur. A current apparent decline in the seismicity of the Jamaica region is noted but it is shown that the decline in the number of earthquakes of engineering interest is not yet statistically significant.  相似文献   

Glass inclusions and melt compositions of the Toba Tuffs,northern Sumatra     

B. Beddoe-Stephens  J. A. Aspden  T. J. Shepherd 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1983,83(3-4):278-287

Glass (melt) inclusions in quartz, plagioclase and K-feldspar phenocrysts in Toba Tuff ignimbrites all exhibit highly evolved, rhyolitic compositions, identical to glass forming the matrix of the rocks. About 4% H₂O is present, dissolved in the glass, suggesting a water saturation pressure ( \(P_{{\text{H}}_{\text{2}} {\text{O}}}\) ) of about 1 kbar. Melt compositions are consistent with phase relations for the condition \(P_{{\text{H}}_{\text{2}} {\text{O}}}\) =P _total = 1 kbar. The residual rhyolitic melt formed as the result of fractional crystallisation from a more basic, possibly rhyodacitic melt, leading to the development of zoned feldspars. Water saturation in the melt probably arose as a result of this process. Melt temperatures prior to eruption and quenching were probably less than 800° C. However, hot-stage homogenisation experiments yield entrapment temperatures significantly higher (>900° C). This discrepancy is not clearly understood but indicates care must be taken in the interpretation of such experiments. Ignimbritic magmas at Toba, from pressure estimates, appear to have been erupted from about 3–4 kms depth and represent the silicic cap to a batholithic body consolidating beneath the Toba caldera.  相似文献   

Mineralisation at the Carrock Fell Tungsten Mine,N. England: Paragenetic,fluid inclusion and geochemical study     

T. K. Ball  N. J. Fortey  T. J. Shepherd 《Mineralium Deposita》1985,20(1):57-65

Tungsten ore at Carrock Fell Mine comprises wolframite and scheelite in polyminerallic quartz veins which traverse the Grainsgill Granite cupola and surrounding country rocks. In the veins, a wolframite-scheelite-apatite assemblage pre-dates a scheelite-arsenopyrite-pyrite (plus other sulphides) assemblages. Temperatures of mineralisation declined from a peak near 350°C to 170°C, and the hydrothermal fluid contained about 6 weight% NaCl and 3 wt% NaHCO₃. Contemporaneous greisenisation involved loss of Na, Cr, Ca and Ba from granite, but Si and K were retained while B, Be and Al increased slightly. Sn also increased but is always a trace constituent, and F appears to have decreased. Zones of intense alteration contain high concentrations of quartzhosted fluid inclusions resulting from penetration of the granite by fluid chemically similar to that in the vein quartz. The W-rich, Sn-poor nature of the mineralisation may relate to the weakly saline, F-deficient but CO₂-rich fluid chemistry. The alteration and mineralisation processes took place during late cooling of the Lower-Devonian Skiddaw Granite. Cross-cutting quartz-ankerite veins and argillitic zones which may be considerably younger than those producing the tungsten ore, have a distinct mineral suite lacking W and As and including major Pb and Zn. Temperatures at this late stage were below 150°C, and the fluid is estimated to have contained approximately 12 wt% NaCl and 15 wt% CaCl₂.  相似文献   

Amphibole-bearing basalts from the submarine volcano Kick’em-Jenny in the lesser antilles Island arc     

H. Sigurdsson  J. B. Shepherd 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1974,38(3):891-910

An oceanographic survey by H.M.S. Hecla of the 1974 active submarine volcano (12°18′N and 61°38′W) revealed a crater at 190 m below sea level and bottom-sampling yielded fresh olivine basalt pyroclastics with phenocrysts of olivine, plagioclase and clinopyroxene. Megacrysts of amphilbole, up to 16 modal percent, are subsilicic and nepheline-normative ferroan pargasites. The mineral assemblage Ol+Cpx+Pl+Amph appears to have been in equilibrium in the Kick’em-Jenny melt prior to eruption, although published experimental studies on hydrous (H₂O-saturated) or anhydrous alkali basaltic compositions have not yielded this mineral assemblage at any pressure. Interpolation between the experimentally determined phase relationships for dry and water-saturated alkali basaltic liquids indicates, however, that in an isobaric section at 5 kb the observed assemblage can exist in the water-undersaturated region. The Kick’em-Jenny olivine basalts belong to a suite of variably undersaturated basaltic rocks including alkali picrites and basanites, common in Grenada and the southern Grenadines, but although the available evidence indicates the importance of the presence of water in the genesis of these melts, their origin seems most likely to be associated with partial melting of upper mantle material rather than melting of amphibolite in an underthrust lithospheric slab.  相似文献