Volcanic and Scientific Activity at Kick ’em Jenny Submarine Volcano 2001–2002: Implications for Volcanic Hazard in the Southern Grenadines,Lesser Antilles     

Jan?M.?LindsayEmail author  John?B.?Shepherd  Doug?Wilson 《Natural Hazards》2005,34(1):1-24

Kick em Jenny submarine volcano, ~8 km north of Grenada, has erupted at least 12 times since it was first discovered in 1939, making it the most frequently active volcano in the Lesser Antilles arc. The volcano lies in shallow water close to significant population centres and directly beneath a major shipping route, and as a consequence an understanding of the eruptive behaviour and potential hazards at the volcano is critical. The most recent eruption at Kick em Jenny occurred on December 4 2001, and differed significantly from past eruptions in that it was preceded by an intensive volcanic earthquake swarm. In March 2002 a multi-beam bathymetric survey of the volcano and its surroundings was carried out by the NOAA ship Ronald H Brown. This survey provided detailed three-dimensional images of the volcano, revealing the detailed morphology of the summit area. The volcano is capped by a summit crater which is breached to the northeast and which varies in diameter from 300 to 370 m. The depth to the summit (highest point on the crater rim) is 185 m and the depth to the lowest point inside the crater is 264 m. No dome is present within the crater. The crater and summit region of Kick em Jenny are located at the top of an asymmetrical cone which is about 1300 m from top to bottom on its western side. It lies within what appear to be the remnants of a much larger arcuate collapse structure. An evaluation of the morphology, bathymetry and eruptive history of the volcano indicates that the threat of eruption-generated tsunamis is considerably lower than previously thought, mainly because the volcano is no longer thought to be growing towards the surface. Of more major and immediate concern are the direct hazards associated with the volcano, such as ballistic ejecta, water disturbances and lowered water density due to degassing.  相似文献   

Atlanta’s urban heat island under extreme heat conditions and potential mitigation strategies   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Yan Zhou  J. Marshall Shepherd 《Natural Hazards》2010,52(3):639-668

The urban heat island (UHI), together with summertime heat waves, foster’s biophysical hazards such as heat stress, air pollution, and associated public health problems. Mitigation strategies such as increased vegetative cover and higher albedo surface materials have been proposed. Atlanta, Georgia, is often affected by extreme heat, and has recently been investigated to better understand its heat island and related weather modifications. The objectives of this research were to (1) characterize temporal variations in the magnitude of UHI around Metro Atlanta area, (2) identify climatological attributes of the UHI under extremely high temperature conditions during Atlanta’s summer (June, July, and August) period, and (3) conduct theoretical numerical simulations to quantify the first-order effects of proposed mitigation strategies. Over the period 1984–2007, the climatological mean UHI magnitude for Atlanta-Athens and Athens-Monticello was 1.31 and 1.71°C, respectively. There were statistically significant minimum temperature trends of 0.70°C per decade at Athens and −1.79°C per decade at Monticello while Atlanta’s minimum temperature remained unchanged. The largest (smallest) UHI magnitudes were in spring (summer) and may be coupled to cloud-radiative cycles. Heat waves in Atlanta occurred during 50% of the years spanning 1984–2007 and were exclusively summertime phenomena. The mean number of heat wave events in Atlanta during a given heat wave year was 1.83. On average, Atlanta heat waves lasted 14.18 days, although there was quite a bit of variability (standard deviation of 9.89). The mean maximum temperature during Atlanta’s heat waves was 35.85°C. The Atlanta-Athens UHI was not statistically larger during a heat wave although the Atlanta-Monticello UHI was. Model simulations captured daytime and nocturnal UHIs under heat wave conditions. Sensitivity results suggested that a 100% increase in Atlanta’s surface vegetation or a tripling of its albedo effectively reduced UHI surface temperature. However, from a mitigation and technological standpoint, there is low feasibility of tripling albedo in the foreseeable future. Increased vegetation seems to be a more likely choice for mitigating surface temperature.  相似文献   

Climate change and hydrology at the prairie margin: Historic and prospective future flows of Canada's Red Deer and other Rocky Mountain rivers          下载免费PDF全文

Laurens J. Philipsen  Karen M. Gill  Anita Shepherd  Stewart B. Rood 《水文研究》2018,32(17):2669-2684

The South Saskatchewan River Basin of southern Alberta drains the transboundary central Rocky Mountains region and provides the focus for irrigation agriculture in Canada. Following extensive development, two tributaries, the Oldman and Bow rivers, were closed for further water allocations, whereas the Red Deer River (RDR) remains open. The RDR basin is at the northern limit of the North American Great Plains and may be suitable for agricultural expansion with a warming climate. To consider irrigation development and ecological impacts, it is important to understand the regional hydrologic consequences of climate change. To analyse historic trends that could extend into the future, we developed century‐long discharge records for the RDR, by coordinating data across hydrometric gauges, estimating annual flows from seasonal records, and undertaking flow naturalization to compensate for river regulation. Analyses indicated some coordination with the Pacific decadal oscillation and slight decline in summer and annual flows from 1912 to 2016 (?0.13%/year, Sen's slope). Another forecasting approach involved regional downscaling from the global circulation models, CGCMI‐A, ECHAM4, HadCM3, and NCAR‐CCM3. These projected slight flow decreases from the mountain headwaters versus increases from the foothills and boreal regions, resulting in a slight increase in overall river flows (+0.1%/year). Prior projections from these and other global circulation models ranged from slight decrease to slight increase, and the average projection of ?0.05%/year approached the empirical trend. Assessments of other rivers draining the central and northern Rocky Mountains revealed a geographic transition in flow patterns over the past century. Flows from the rivers in Southern Alberta declined (around ?0.15%/year), in contrast to increasing flows in north‐eastern British Columbia and the Yukon. The RDR watershed approaches this transition, and this study thus revealed regional differentiation in the hydrological consequences from climate change.  相似文献   

A global climatology of extreme rainfall rates in the inner core of intense tropical cyclones     

Ian Chang  Mace L. Bentley  J. Marshall Shepherd 《自然地理学》2014,35(6):478-496

The localized rain rate maxima (R_M) of the inner core region of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are investigated using Version 6 of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis data-set from 1998 to 2010. Specifically, this study examines the probabilities of R_M exceeding 25 mm h^?1 (P25) in intense TCs. The 25 mm h^?1 R_M is the 90th percentile of all R_M observations during the study period. The descending order of P25 observed from intense TCs for the six major ocean basins is: the North Indian Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, the Northwest Pacific Ocean, the South Pacific Ocean, the South Indian Ocean, and the East-central Pacific Ocean. The six major basins have been subdivided into 29 sub-basins to discern regional variability of R_M. P25 increases with increasing TC category in all major basins, except for the South Pacific. Sub-basins with intense TCs that produce extreme rainfall rate maxima include the Bay of Bengal, the South Philippine Sea, the East China Sea, the north coast of Australia, southeast Melanesia, and the Northwest Atlantic. Sub-basins with a higher proportion of category 5 (CAT5) observations than category 3 (CAT3) observations tend to have a greater P25 beyond 60 km from the storm center.  相似文献   

Geological fracture mapping in coalfields and the stress fields of the Sydney Basin     

John Shepherd  Jonathan F. Huntington 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(3-4):299-309

In the fracture pattern of the Sydney Basin, various fracture and stress domains that are spatially related can be recognised. At least for the western region of the Basin, periodic, relatively narrow domains (termed fault and joint swarms) that have a submeridional trend are believed to be similar to the Lapstone Monocline‐Kurrajong Fault structures, and may extend into the Lower Palaeozoic basement. An overall, horizontal N‐S and NE‐SW oriented principal compressive stress (σ₁) measured in collieries and inferred from earthquake events at depths of 10–20 km is a regional phenomenon (possibly Basin‐wide), which can be expected to be locally modified close to geological structures, especially in and close to fault and joint swarms, near major normal faults, and near minor thrust and strike‐slip faults. The interaction of colliery roadway drivage, local structures (faults and/or cleat) and the stress field permits inferences to be made about virgin stresses in coal seams. Some earthquakes coincide with fault and joint swarms, and others tend to have occurred close to or at swarm endpoints. It is concluded that the overall fracture pattern resulted from the cumulative development of fault and joint systems from mid‐Permian to Recent time. The comprehensive analysis of this pattern and its relationship to stress fields and seismic activity will require much more information.  相似文献   

Comparison of dew point temperature estimation methods in Southwestern Georgia     

Marcus D. Williams  Scott L. Goodrick  Andrew Grundstein  Marshall Shepherd 《自然地理学》2013,34(4):255-267

Recent upward trends in acres irrigated have been linked to increasing near-surface moisture. Unfortunately, stations with dew point data for monitoring near-surface moisture are sparse. Thus, models that estimate dew points from more readily observed data sources are useful. Daily average dew temperatures were estimated and evaluated at 14 stations in Southwest Georgia using linear regression models and artificial neural networks (ANN). Estimation methods were drawn from simple and readily available meteorological observations, therefore only temperature and precipitation were considered as input variables. In total, three linear regression models and 27 ANN were analyzed. The two methods were evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and other model evaluation techniques to assess the skill of the estimation methods. Both methods produced adequate estimates of daily averaged dew point temperatures, with the ANN displaying the best overall skill. The optimal performance of both models was during the warm season. Both methods had higher error associated with colder dew points, potentially due to the lack of observed values at those ranges. On average, the ANN reduced RMSE by 6.86% and MAE by 8.30% when compared to the best performing linear regression model.  相似文献   

Remote sensing methods to detect land‐use/cover changes in New Zealand's ‘indigenous’ grasslands     

Emily S. Weeks  Anne‐Gaelle E. Ausseil  James D. Shepherd  John R. Dymond 《New Zealand geographer》2013,69(1):1-13

We compared four remote sensing methods to detect changes in New Zealand's grasslands (image differencing, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) differencing post‐classification and visual interpretation). The visual interpretation resulted in the best classification results, with a 98% overall accuracy when compared with ground‐truthed data. The tests on automatic classification (image differencing, NDVI differencing) and post classification had much lower accuracies, ranging from 47% to 56%. In the New Zealand grassland landscape, automatic detection methods were not able to differentiate between variations of soil moisture and vegetation phenology from variations in land‐use change. This, in combination with topographic effects, which have hampered the automated mapping of vegetation, is the main reason why visual interpretation of high‐resolution imagery is still needed.  相似文献   

Extended survivors analysis: An improved method for the analysis of catch-at-age data and abundance indices   总被引：15，自引：14，他引：1  

Shepherd  J. G. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1999,56(5):584-591

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Rocket measurements of oxygen and nitrogen emissions in the aurora     

A.J. Deans  G.G. Shepherd 《Planetary and Space Science》1978,26(4):319-333

Altitude distributions of electronically excited atoms and molecules of oxygen and nitrogen in the aurora have been obtained by means of rocket-borne wavelength scanning interference filter photometers launched from Fort Churchill, Manitoba (58.4°N, 94.1°W) on January 23, 1974. Atomic oxygen densities derived from mass spectrometer measurements obtained during the flight are used in conjunction with the volume emission rate ratio of the N₂(C³Π_u?B³Π_g) (0-0) second positive and N₂(A³Σ_u⁺, v = 1?X¹Σ_g⁺) Vegard-Kaplan bands to derive a rate constant for quenching of the N₂(A³Σ_u⁺, v = 1) level with O(³P) of 1.7(±0.8) × 10^?11 cm³ s^?1 These data, together with O den derived from the O₂(b¹Σ_g⁺) state nightglow emission observed during the rocket ascent, suggest that quenching of the N₂(A³Σ_u⁺, v = 1) level by O₂ has a significant positive temperature dependence. The processes involved in the production and loss of the N₂(A³Σ_u⁺) state are considered and energy transfer from the N₂(A³Σ_u⁺) state to O(³P) is found to be a significant source of the OI 5577 Å green line in this aurora at altitudes below 130 km. Emission from the NO(A²Σ⁺?X²Π) gamma bands was not detected, an observation which is consistent with the mass spectrometer data obtained during the flight indicating that the NO density was <10⁸ cm³ at 110 km. On the basis of previous rocket and satellite measurements of the NO gamma bands, energy transfer from the N₂(A³Σ_u⁺) state to NO(X²Π) is shown to be an insignificant source of the gamma bands in aurora. Altitude profiles of the N₂(a¹Π_g?X¹Σ_g⁺) Lyman-Birge-Hopfield band system are presented.  相似文献   

Direct measurement of conjugate photoelectrons and predawn 630 nm airglow     

G.G. Shepherd  J.F. Pieau  T. Ogawa  T. Tohmatsu  K. Oyama  Y. Watanabe 《Planetary and Space Science》1978,26(3):211-217

A sounding rocket was flown during the predawn on 17 January, 1976 from Uchinoura, Japan, to measure directly the behaviour of the conjugate photoelectrons at magnetically low latitudes. On board the rocket were an electron energy analyzer, 630 nm airglow photometer, and plasma probes to measure electron density and temperature. The incoming flux of the photoelectrons was measured in the altitude range between 210 and 340 km. The differential flux at the top of the atmosphere was determined to be $\text{F = (1.3 ± 0.4) × 10}{}^{11}\text{exp}\text{[?}\text{E(}\text{eV}\text{)}\text{12}\text{]}$ electron · m^?2 · sr^?1 · s^?1 in the energy range 10 ? E ? 50 eV. The emission rate of the 630 nm airglow was observed in the altitude range between 90 and 360 km. The apparent emission rate observed at 80 km was 32 ± 5 R. From a theoretical calculation of the optical excitation rate using the observed electron flux data along with a model distribution of atomic oxygen, it was estimated that more than 65% of the emission could be produced by direct impact of the photoelectrons with atomic oxygen in the thermosphere between 200 and 360 km. Using the observed electron density and the model distribution of oxygen molecules the residual of the emission was ascribed to the excitation of O(¹D) through dissociative recombination, $\text{O}{}_2{}^{\mathrm{+}}\text{+}\text{e}\text{→}\text{O}{}^1\text{+}\text{O}{}^7$. The direct collisional excitation by ambient electrons is estimated to be negligibly small at the level of observed electron temperature.  相似文献