Effect of 2D spatial variability on slope reliability: A simplified FORM analysis     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2018,9(6):1631-1638

To meet the high demand for reliability based design of slopes, we present in this paper a simplified HLRF(Hasofere Linde Rackwitze Fiessler) iterative algorithm for first-order reliability method(FORM). It is simply formulated in x-space and requires neither transformation of correlated random variables nor optimization tools. The solution can be easily improved by iteratively adjusting the step length. The algorithm is particularly useful to practicing engineers for geotechnical reliability analysis where standalone(deterministic) numerical packages are used. Based on the proposed algorithm and through direct perturbation analysis of random variables, we conducted a case study of earth slope reliability with complete consideration of soil uncertainty and spatial variability.  相似文献   

A CRPS-Based Spatial Technique for the Verification of Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts     

赵滨  张博  李子良 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(1):24-33

Traditional precipitation skill scores are affected by the well-known“double penalty”problem caused by the slight spatial or temporal mismatches between forecasts and observations. The fuzzy (neighborhood) method has been proposed for deterministic simulations and shown some ability to solve this problem. The increasing resolution of ensemble forecasts of precipitation means that they now have similar problems as deterministic forecasts. We developed an ensemble precipitation verification skill score, i.e., the Spatial Continuous Ranked Probability Score (SCRPS), and used it to extend spatial verification from deterministic into ensemble forecasts. The SCRPS is a spatial technique based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the fuzzy method. A fast binomial random variation generator was used to obtain random indexes based on the climatological mean observed frequency, which were then used in the reference score to calculate the skill score of the SCRPS. The verification results obtained using daily forecast products from the ECMWF ensemble forecasts and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the OPERA datasets during June-August 2018 shows that the spatial score is not affected by the number of ensemble forecast members and that a consistent assessment can be obtained. The score can reflect the performance of ensemble forecasts in modeling precipitation and thus can be widely used.  相似文献   

A probability-weighted moment test to assess simple scaling     

Praveen Kumar  Peter Guttarp  Efi Foufoula-Georgiou 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1994,8(3):173-183

We present a statistically robust approach based on probability weighted moments to assess the presence of simple scaling in geophysical processes. The proposed approach is different from current approaches which rely on estimation of high order moments. High order moments of simple scaling processes (distributions) may not have theoretically defined values and consequently, their empirical estimates are highly variable and do not converge with increasing sample size. They are, therefore, not an appropriate tool for inference. On the other hand we show that the probability weighted moments of such processes (distributions) do exist and, hence, their empirical estimates are more robust. These moments, therefore, provide an appropriate tool for inferring the presence of scaling. We illustrate this using simulated Levystable processes and then draw inference on the nature of scaling in fluctuations of a spatial rainfall process.  相似文献   

从经验性预报向以物理为基础的概率预报过渡的若干问题   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

韩渭宾 《内陆地震》1990,4(4):319-331

前言 地震预报是一个既古老又年轻的课题。早在二千七百多年前我国就开始有地震记载。公元132年,东汉张衡发明了世界上最早的地震仪——候风地动仪。但是,世界性的比较科学的地震预报研究大体上从本世纪六十年代开始。日本从1965年开始执行第一个地震预报五年计划。苏联虽自1948年阿什哈巴德地震之后就提出地震预报,但是,在地震学、地球物理和地球化学等方面探索前兆,真正取得进展也始于六十年代末。我国有计划大规模开展地震预报从1966年邢台地震现场开始。美国地震预报起步稍晚,但进展很快。 二十多年的观测、研究和预报实践推动了地震预报事业的发展。地震预报已从束手无策的  相似文献   

THE FLUCTUATING CHARACTERISTICS OF HYDRODYNAMIC FORCES ON BED PARTICLE     

WANG Xingkui  AN Fengling 《国际泥沙研究》1994,(3)

ＴＨＥＦＬＵＣＴＵＡＴＩＮＧＣＨＡＲＡＣＴＥＲＩＳＴＩＣＳＯＦＨＹＤＲＯＤＹＮＡＭＩＣＦＯＲＣＥＳＯＮＢＥＤＰＡＲＴＩＣＬＥ￥ＷＡＮＧＸｉｎｇｋｕｉａｎｄＡＮＦｅｎｇｌｉｎｇ（ＴｈｅＦｉｎａｎｃｅｗａｓＳｕｐｐｏｒｔｅｄｂｙＮａｔｉｏｎａｌＳｃｉｅｎ...  相似文献   

Seismic Intensity Zoning Map of China (1990) and Its Explanation     

Compiling Committee of Seismic Intensity Zoning Map of China 《中国地震研究》1994,(4)

The Seismic Intensity Zoning Map of China(1990)was based on the probabilistic method of seismic hazard analysis.In compiling the map,the characteristics of inhomogeneity of earthquake distribution both in space and time in China are considered sufficiently,and some necessary modifications in the model of seismic hazard analysis are carried out.Based on the analysis of the seismic activity and seismotectonic environment,26 seismic provinces are divided first as the statistical elements of the seismicity analysis; the seismic potential source areas are then divided in the seismic provinces.The 733 potential source areas with various upper limit magnitudes have been divided in the country.According to the reliable time domain of earthquake data with various magnitude intervals,the b values in magnitude-frequency relationship are calculated in the seismic provinces.According to the analysis of the inhomogeneity of seismicity distribution both in space and time,the annual average occurrence rates of the eart  相似文献   

Temporal variations in bedload transport rates associated with the migration of bedforms     

Basil Gomez  Richard L. Naff  David W. Hubbell 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1989,14(2):135-156

Temporal variations in bedload transport rates that occur at a variety of timescales, even under steady flow conditions, are accepted as an inherent component of the bedload transport process. Rarely, however, has the cause of such variations been explained clearly. We consider three data sets, obtained from laboratory experiments, that refer to measurements of bedload transport made with continuously recording bedload traps. Each data set is characterized by a predominant low-frequency oscillation, on which additional higher-frequency oscillations generally are superimposed. The period of these oscillations, as isolated through the use of spectral analysts, ranged between 0·47 and 168 minutes, and was associated unequivocally with the migration of bedforms such as ripples, dunes, and bars. The extent to which such oscillatory behaviour may be recognized in a data set depends on the duration of sampling and the length of the sampling time, with respect to the period of a given bedform. Several theoretical probability distribution functions have been developed to describe the frequency distributions of (relative) bedload transport rates that are associated with the migration of bedforms (Einstein, 1937b; Hamamori, 1962; Carey and Hubbell, 1986). These distribution functions were derived without reference to a sampling interval. We present a modification of Hamamori's (1962) probability distribution function, generated by Monte Carlo simulation, which permits one to specify the sampling interval, in relation to the length of a bedform. Comparisons between the simulated and observed frequency distributions, that were undertaken on the basis of the data described herein, are good (significant at the 90 per cent confidence level). Finally, the implications that temporal variability, which is associated with the migration of bedforms, have for the accurate determination of bedload transport rates are considered.  相似文献   

对流边界层中的一个双高斯型PDF扩散模式     

朱忠湛  李宗恺 《气象学报》1995,53(1):74-81

对流边界层（ＣＢＬ）中的污染扩散是非高斯型的。本文在下列三个假设下建立了双高斯型几率分布函数（ＰＤＦ）模式：１．对流边界层任一确定高度铅直速度Ｗ的几率分布函数ｐｗ由两个高斯分布迭加而成；２．从污染源释放的粒子具有源高的铅直速度几率分布，且其轨迹是线性的；３．粒子在地面的反射为全反射，在混合层高度Ｚｉ为全反射或有部分吸收。然后分析了三个高度上铅直速度Ｗ的一些统计特征量，比较了由ＰＤＦ模式计算的横风向积分浓度和Ｌａｍｂ的数值模拟［１－３］，Ｄｅａｒｄｏｒｆｆ的水槽模拟［４－６］结果，并用美国ＣＯＮＤＯＲＳ计划的外场试验资料［７］对ＰＤＦ模式进行了验证，结果均相当一致。  相似文献   

Time independent seismic hazard analysis in Alborz and surrounding area   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mohammad Ashtari Jafari 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(1):237-252

The Bayesian probability estimation seems to have efficiencies that make it suitable for calculating different parameters of seismicity. Generally this method is able to combine prior information on seismicity while at the same time including statistical uncertainty associated with the estimation of the parameters used to quantify seismicity, in addition to the probabilistic uncertainties associated with the inherent randomness of earthquake occurrence. In this article a time-independent Bayesian approach, which yields the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude will be exceeded at certain time intervals is examined for the region of Alborz, Iran, in order to consider the following consequences for the city of Tehran. This area is located within the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Many active faults affect the Alborz, most of which are parallel to the range and accommodate the present day oblique convergence across it. Tehran, the capital of Iran, with millions of inhabitants is located near the foothills of the southern Central Alborz. This region has been affected several times by historical and recent earthquakes that confirm the importance of seismic hazard assessment through it. As the first step in this study an updated earthquake catalog is compiled for the Alborz. Then, by assuming a Poisson distribution for the number of earthquakes which occur at a certain time interval, the probabilistic earthquake occurrence is computed by the Bayesian approach. The highest probabilities are found for zone AA and the lowest probabilities for zones KD and CA, meanwhile the overall probability is high.  相似文献   

应用K指数和TOT指数作江苏中期降水预报的试验   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

宋海鸥  王永红等 《气象科学》2002,22(2):242-246

用国家气象中心的T63和T106中期数值预报产品，计算所划定区域的K指数和TOT指数作为预报因子，并统计与江苏省9个代表站降水的相关。用逐步回归方法建立了江苏省4－7月第4－6天的PP降水预报方程36个、MOS降水预报方程108个，多级判别临界值144组。在此基础上经统计制作江苏省降水概率预报。  相似文献