Impacts of Cumulus Convective Parameterization Schemes on Summer Monsoon Precipitation Simulation over China   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

YU Entao  WANG Huijun  GAO Yongqi  SUN Jianqi 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2011,25(5):581-592

By using the Betts-Miller-Janjic, Grell-Devenyi, and Kain-Fritsch cumulus convective parameterization schemes in theWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, long time simulations from 2000 to 2009 are conducted to investigate the impacts of different cumulus convective parameterization schemes on summer monsoon precipitation simulation over China. The results show that all the schemes have the capability to reasonably reproduce the spatial and temporal distributions of summer monsoon precipitation and the corresponding background circulation. The observed north-south shift of monsoon rain belt is also well simulated by the three schemes. Detailed comparison indicates that the Grell-Devenyi scheme gives a better performance than the others. Deficiency in simulated water vapor transport is one possible reason for the precipitation simulation bias.  相似文献   

Asymmetric rainband breaking in Typhoon Haitang (2005) before and after its landfall   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

丁治英  王勇  沈新勇  徐海明 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2011,17(3):276-284

Using the WRF (Weather Research Forecast) model, this work performed analysis and simulation on the rainband change during the landfall of Typhoon Haitang (2005) and found that breaking may occur over land and oceans leads to distinct asymmetric precipitation. The breaking is related to the topographic effect as well as interactions between the typhoon and midlatitude systems at upper levels. During the landfall, divergent flows at the 200-hPa level of the South-Asian high combined with divergent flows at the periphery of the typhoon to form a weak, inverted trough in the northwest part of the storm, with the mid- and low-level divergence fields on the west and northwest side of the typhoon center maintaining steadily. It intensifies the upper-level cyclonic flows, in association with positive vorticity rotating counterclockwise together with air currents that travel stepwise into a vorticity zone in the vicinity of the typhoon core, thereby forming a vorticity transfer belt in 22–25? N that extends to the eastern part of the storm. It is right here that the high-level vorticity band is subsiding so that rainfall is prevented from developing, resulting in the rainbelt breaking, which is the principal cause of asymmetric precipitation occurrence. Migrating into its outer region, the banded vorticity of Haitang at high levels causes further amplification of the cyclonic circulation in the western part and transfer of positive vorticity into the typhoon such that the rainband breaking is more distinct.  相似文献   

1980—2015年风蚀影响下中国北方土壤有机质与养分流失时空特征     

赵海鹏  宋宏权  刘鹏飞  李霄阳  王团徽 《地理研究》2019,38(11):2778-2789

中国北方干旱/半干旱区是全球主要的沙尘源区之一,风蚀造成的沙尘排放可导致大量的土壤有机质（SOM）与养分流失,并通过传输与沉降过程对其进行空间再分配,对空气质量、气候变化、植被生长及生物地球化学过程等具有重要影响。本文利用WRF/Chem（Weather Research Forecasting with Chemistry）v3.7.1大气化学传输模型,对1980—2015年间中国北方沙尘排放及其引起的SOM、全氮（TN）与全磷（TP）的时空变化过程进行了精细化模拟,探究了中国北方风蚀引起的SOM、TN与TP养分流失的时空变化特征。结果表明：① 1980—2015年来平均每年约有66.59 Tg的沙尘颗粒排放至大气;② 沙尘排放具有较大的时空差异,沙尘排放源区主要集中在新疆东部、内蒙古西部的巴丹吉林沙漠和腾格里沙漠等地区;③ 每年因沙尘排放引起的SOM、TN和TP流失量分别约为0.07 Tg、0.004 Tg和0.005 Tg;④ 1980—2015年间中国北方沙尘排放及其引起的SOM、TN与TP的流失量具有较强的年际波动,未呈现显著的趋势性变化特征。本研究对于认知风蚀在碳循环与养分循环过程中的作用,以及对深入了解中国北方的土地退化机理具有重要意义。  相似文献   

基于机器学习的海洋环境预报订正方法研究     

许立兵  王安喜  汪纯阳  陈悦  陈昱文  周峥  陈幸荣  邢建勇  刘克威  黄小猛 《海洋通报》2020,39(6):695-704

结合中尺度数值模式 WRF 预报数据和 ERA5 再分析资料，利用机器学习方法对 WRF 预报场的风场、温度、气压进行预报订正。采用 ERA5 作为真值，与原始 WRF 预报相比，利用随机森林模型可以将预报结果整体均方根误差降低 44%以 上，利用深度神经网络模型可以将预报结果整体均方根误差降低 34%以上。通过随机森林模型实验得到不同输入特征对预报要素的影响程度，分析了关键的预报订正因子。  相似文献   

Determining the source of dust storms with use of coupling WRF and HYSPLIT models: A case study of Yazd province in central desert of Iran     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2021

Dust storm, which has a significant impact on regional air quality, is one of the most hazardous meteorological phenomena in the arid areas. Yazd province is one of the arid areas in Iran that is exposed to dust storms. In this study, two cases of dust storms of Yazd province are studied with the use of coupling numerical models and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from MODIS data. We investigated synoptic condition of such dust storms that were formed downstream of upper level through in the area by focusing on two storms, on May 24 and 25, 2014. For this purpose, a dynamic coupling of this case is done using WRF output the HYSPLIT model. This model was implemented to investigate the sources of the dust storms by calculating the back trajectories from the receptor sites. The trajectories indicated that the first and the second case storms occurred in the northeast and the south of Yazd respectively. These results also showed a good agreement with MODIS aerosol optical depth data and HYSPLIT back trajectories paths.  相似文献   

气象-气溶胶资料联合同化对秋季PM_2.5浓度模拟的影响研究     

宋佳琨  陈耀登  陈丹 《气象学报》2021,79(3):477-491

相比冬季大范围静稳条件下的污染堆积过程,秋季气象条件更加复杂和局地化,气象条件模拟不确定性给秋季气溶胶模拟带来了更大难度,且目前研究较少考虑气象-气溶胶因素在线模拟和联合同化。使用WRF/Chem模式和格点统计差值（GSI）三维变分同化系统,2015年10月进行了为期1个月的气象-气溶胶资料联合同化及模拟试验,并基于此讨论了气象-气溶胶资料联合同化对秋季PM_2.5浓度模拟的影响。结果表明,WRF/Chem模式可以模拟出秋季污染天气过程,但对华北平原和中东部地区存在高估、西北部存在低估现象;同化地面PM_2.5浓度观测资料可以改进对PM_2.5浓度的模拟,上述两个地区的偏差均得到订正,6 h预报偏差均降低至6 μg/m3以内;重点针对华北地区的分析表明,秋季PM_2.5污染过程与特殊气象条件（湿度升高、风场辐合、区域输送）密切相关,因此在地面PM_2.5观测资料同化基础上增加常规气象资料同化,能进一步提高对华北平原气象-污染过程的表达,PM_2.5浓度预报相关系数从0.86提高至0.89。气象-气溶胶联合资料同化能更加准确地模拟秋季气溶胶污染过程,为更好地开展污染成因和在气象预报框架下开展气象-气溶胶相互影响研究提供了基础。   相似文献   

A study of track deflection associated with the landfall of Tropical Cyclone Sidr (2007) over the Bay of Bengal and Bangladesh     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2021

In this study, the dynamics of track deflection associated with Tropical Cyclone (TC) Sidr (2007) are explored using a numerical weather prediction model. It is found that (a) the simulated track of Sidr is sensitive to flow, orographic, and model vertical structure that change the environmental steering flow leading to the track deflection. In particular, the track of TC Sidr is deflected northwestward for cases with lower domain height, horizontal domain covering only part of Himalaya mountains, and varying mountain heights; (b) the simulated track of TC Sidr, when compared with GFS reanalysis data, is mainly controlled by its deep-layer environmental steering flow as a point vortex; (c) the northwestward deflection with lower domain height is caused by an artificially larger high pressure at lower levels in the vicinity of the Himalayas, due to the upward propagation of wave energy being reflected by the upper domain boundary; (d) the significant northwestward deflection associated with the varying mountain height cases is due to the cyclone vortex being advected by the northeasterly monsoonal flow, which is blocked by the mountains in the corresponding cases with mountains; (e) the northeastward track deflection after the landfall of Sidr is explained by the addition of the frictional force.In summary, the model vertical domain height and the Himalaya mountain representation play key roles in influencing the accuracy of TC Sidr track simulation, compared with other factors, such as the vertical resolution, at least for TC Sidr.  相似文献   

Impact of physical parameterizations on simulation of the Caspian Sea lake-effect snow     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2021

The southwestern coast of the Caspian Sea often experiences heavy snowfall during winter season due to the lake effect. The accurate estimation of snowfall in this region is still a challenge for weather forecasters. This study attempts to investigate the simulation of lake-effect snow (LES) event occurring along the southwest coastline of the Caspian Sea from 31 January to 4 February 2014 using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The study evaluates the sensitivity of four microphysics (WSM6, Goddard, Morrison, and Thompson) schemes and two planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes (the Yonsei University (YSU) and the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ)), yielding eight distinct combinations. The results indicated that all the simulations overestimated the precipitation. However, the best configurations for estimation of precipitation and snow in terms of their spatiotemporal variation were the Morrison-MYJ and the Goddard-MYJ, respectively. Analyses of the vertical profiles of hydrometeor species showed that the combination of Goddard and MYJ schemes created more snow and graupel than the other configurations. Although the combination of WSM-MYJ schemes revealed the least bias, it was not appropriate for the prediction of snow. A comparison of the two boundary layer schemes showed that the MYJ scheme simulated better intensity and distribution of precipitation than the YSU scheme compared to observations. Also, the maximum radar reflectivity of the model output was useful for identifying the location of maximum precipitation.  相似文献   

盛夏苏北地区一次飑线过程的数值模拟研究     

朱娟  张立凤  张铭 《湖北气象》2022,41(1):15-23

对一次盛夏苏北飑线过程采用区域三重嵌套WRF模式进行了数值模拟和结果分析,给出了飑线径向剖面的概念模型图。结果表明:模拟的飑线与实际飑线非常接近,两者具有相同的性质和特点,利用模拟的线状强降水带及其降水强度来确定模拟飑线的位置和强度是可行的。飑线成熟期,飑线处存在强辐合区、强垂直上升运动区以及假相当位温的高值区,三者均呈柱状向上伸展;飑线前方(飑线移动的方向),低层有位温高值的入流,为飑线带入大量水汽和能量,后方低层有浅薄入流;飑线过境时地面风向发生急剧变化;飑线中层位温值大致不变呈中性层结,这与对流凝结潜热释放有关。该飑线过程可大体看成是假绝热过程,并具有重力波的非平衡性质,其生成演变中存在多尺度的相互作用。  相似文献   

近岸溢油漂移扩散预测方法研究——以胶州湾溢油事件为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

高志刚  李程  李欢  王国松 《海洋通报》2020,39(2):272-280

近些年,由于中国经济的高速发展,原油需求逐年增长,同时海上溢油事故发生的风险也在加剧。海上溢油会严重破坏海洋环境,危害我国经济发展,加强溢油漂移扩散预报研究能够为海上溢油应急响应提供技术支撑。因此,国家海洋信息中心研发了海上突发事件应急一体化预测预警系统。该系统基于GIS平台研发,能够在二维电子海图基础上叠加相关的海洋环境动力要素信息,模拟溢油扩散和漂移态势,同时计算剩余油量,估算溢油面积以及岸线吸附程度等。2013年11月22日,山东黄岛发生输油管道爆炸事故,造成大量原油溢入胶州湾。本文利用该系统结合高分辨率大气模型WRF的三重嵌套技术和海流模型SELFE的非结构化网格加密技术,对事故溢油漂移扩散开展了预测工作。预测结果显示,油污受胶州湾内往复流的影响极大,72 h后,胶州湾内外大部分海域都将存在油污,主要集中在黄岛沿岸海域、团岛及浮山湾附近,预测扫海面积为70.32 km2。经海事部门高分辨率卫星观测结果印证,系统模拟的溢油分布较为合理。该系统的业务化应用为相关海上溢油污染应急工作提供了一定理论依据和参考。  相似文献