Verification and Assessment of Real-time Forecasts of Two Extreme Heavy Rain Events in Zhengzhou by Operational NWP Models     

钟水新  庄妍  胡胜  陈子通  丁伟钰  冯业荣  邓涛  刘显通  张艳霞  徐道生  戴光丰  蒙伟光 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(4):406-417

In the present study, the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were investigated. The impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were further discussed. The results showed that the regional model system in the Guangzhou Meteorological Service generally showed high scores on the extreme rainfall over Henan. The maximum 24h accumulative rainfall by the 24h forecasts by the CMA-GD reached 556 mm over Henan Province. The 24-h and 48-h Threat Score (TS) of heavy rainfall reached 0.56 and 0.64. The comparisons of the Fraction Skill Score (FSS) verifications of the heavy rainfall by CMA-GD and CMA-TRAMS at the radium of 40km reached 0.96 and 0.87. The water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall showed that the vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) of the whole layer before the occurrence of the heavy rainfall exhibited a double-eyes distribution in case 7 · 20. The north eye over Henan reached the same magnitude of IVT as the typhoon eye (Cempaka) over south China. The IVT over the lower troposphere (<500 hPa) showed an overwhelming magnitude than the upper level, especially in the planetary boundary layer (<700 hPa). More practical technical needs to be developed to improve its performances on the forecasting of extreme rainfall, as well as more experiments need to be conducted to examine the effects of the specific terrain and physical schemes on the extreme rainfall.  相似文献   

Assimilation of Polarimetric Radar Data Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for the Analysis and Forecast of Tropical Storm Ewiniar     

黎慧琦  刘显通  肖辉  万齐林 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(2):94-108

This study explores the potential for directly assimilating polarimetric radar data (including reflectivity Z and differential reflectivity ZDR) using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to improve analysis and forecast of Tropical Storm Ewiniar (2018). Ewiniar weakened but brought about heavy rainfall over Guangdong, China after its final landfall. Two experiments are performed, one assimilating only Z and the other assimilating both Z and ZDR. Assimilation of ZDR together with Z effectively modifies hydrometeor fields, and improves the intensity, shape and position of rainbands. Forecast of 24-hour extraordinary rainfall ≥250 mm is significantly improved. Improvement can also be seen in the wind fields because of cross-variable covariance. The current study shows the possibility of applying polarimetric radar data to improve forecasting of tropical cyclones, which deserves more researches in the future.  相似文献   

花岗岩风化料弃土快速堆填过程中不排水抗剪强度评估     

詹良通  孙倩倩  郭晓刚  陈锐  陈云敏 《岩土力学》2021,(1):50-58

沿海沿江城市地下开挖产生的工程渣土含泥量大、含水率高且较松散,主要运往渣土场进行堆填处置。由于产量巨大而处置场地有限,许多渣土场在运营过程中存在堆填速度快、缺乏排水设施、超高超库容堆填等问题,容易引发堆填体失稳事故。目前对于非饱和工程渣土堆体在快速堆填过程中的失稳机制认识尚不清晰,尤其是对这一过程中的高饱和度工程渣土强度增长规律缺乏足够的认识。以深圳红坳渣土场填料——花岗岩风化料(CDG)填土为研究对象,对不同初始饱和度土样进行三轴不排水不排气等向压缩和剪切试验,结果表明:非饱和CDG填土不排水抗剪强度随围压增大呈非线性增长,增长速率与试样初始饱和度密切相关;当土样压缩后的饱和度超过0.7,不排水强度随围压的增长速率显著降低。基于有效固结应力法的原理,结合Hilf孔压公式和修正剑桥模型,提出了一种工程渣土不排水抗剪强度估算方法,并通过与试验结果对比验证了该方法对初始饱和度高于0.6的CDG填土的适用性。利用该方法确定的不排水强度cu与正应力σn的关系可应用于高饱和度工程渣土快速堆填中的稳定性分析。  相似文献   

CAUSAL ANALYSIS AND NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE INSHORE INTENSIFICATION OF SUPER TYPHOON “HATO”     

于鑫  郑腾飞  万齐林  肖辉  刘显通  王婷 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2019,25(3):293-303

This paper comprehensively analyzes the characteristics and cause of the inshore intensification of super typhoon "Hato", the 13 th super typhoon in 2017. The aspects of typhoon structure, evolution of large-scale circulation and physical quantity field are analyzed using observation data from the Guangdong Automatic Station, Shenzhen Doppler Radar data, NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data, NCEP 0.25°×0.25° sea surface temperature(SST) data, etc.Additionally, in order to investigate the influence of SST change on the intensity of "Hato", the WRF model and ECMWF 0.125°×0.125° reanalysis data are combined to conduct 3 sensitivity tests on"Hato". The results show that the favorable conditions for inshore intensification of "Hato"included the strengthening and westward extension of the subtropical high, continuous increase of low level moisture transport, an anomalous warm SST area north of 20°N in the South China Sea, an extreme divergence value in the northern South China Sea exceeding 6 ×10-5 s-1, and vertical environmental wind shear between 1.1 m/s-4.8 m/s. The intensity of"Hato"was very sensitive to changes in SST. When the SST rose or dropped by 2℃, the minimum central pressure of the typhoon changed by about 13 hPa or 11 hPa,respectively. SST indirectly influenced the intensity of the typhoon through affecting latent heat transport and sensible heat transport.  相似文献   

NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF AN EXTREME RAINSTORM OVER THE PEARL RIVER DELTA REGION ON 7 MAY 2017 BASED ON WRF-ENKF     

肖辉  万齐林  刘显通  郑腾飞  冯璐  夏丰  陈景华 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2019,25(3):312-323

An ensemble Kalman filter based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-EnKF) is used to explore the effectiveness of the assimilation of surface observation data in an extreme local rainstorm over the Pearl River Delta region on 7 May 2017. Before the occurrence of rainstorm, the signals of weather forecasts in this case are too weak to be predicted by numerical weather model, but the surface temperature over the urban area are high. The results of this study show that the wind field, temperature, and water vapor are obviously adjusted by assimilating surface data of 10-m wind, 2-m temperature, and 2-m water vapor mixing ratio at 2300 BST 6 May, especially below the height of 2 km. The southerly wind over the Pearl River Delta region is enhanced, and the convergence of wind over the northern Guangzhou city is also enhanced. Additionally, temperature, water vapor mixing ratio and pseudoequivalent potential temperature are obviously increased over the urban region, providing favorable conditions for the occurrence of heavy precipitation. After assimilation, the predictions of 12-h rainfall amount, temperature, and relative humidity are significantly improved, and the rainfall intensity and distribution in this case can be successfully reproduced. Moreover, sensitivity tests suggest that the assimilation of 2-m temperature is the key to predict this extreme rainfall and just assimilating data of surface wind or water vapor is not workable, implying that urban heat island effect may be an important factor in this extreme rainstorm.  相似文献   

花垣县李梅地区早寒武世清虚洞期碳酸盐岩中的风暴沉积   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

劳可通 《湖南地质》1989,8(3):10-16

扬子地台东南缘的花垣李梅地区,早寒武世晚期清虚洞组钙质风暴岩分布广泛,表现为层数众多,剖面类型丰富,识别标志清楚,颇具特色。风暴作用强度和侵蚀力按地层层序自下而上有由弱到强的规律性变化,与本区清虚洞期陆棚浅滩化演变过程相对应。早寒武世晚期的风暴事件与本区岩相、岩性的分布,均有密切联系。  相似文献   

岩石圈的历史     

星野通平  李瑞兰 《国外地质与勘测》1993,(3):F003-F003,F004

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冬半年500hpa月平均格点资料与内蒙古夏季雨量的关系     

姜凤通  吕发泰 《内蒙古气象》1990,(4):5-7

本文用模糊聚类分析把全区夏季降水分成四个区域，分别计算出每区的平均降水距平百分率和覆盖率。并以500hpa相关区域高度和降水自身周期作因子，用逐步回归双重分析方法建立起8个预报方程，其历史拟合率较高且试用效果较好。  相似文献   

改善地电阻率外线路工作效能的一次尝试     

刘昌谋  梁陆通  黄道立  秦乃岗 《地震》1983,(2)

黄子洞地电台位于广东省新丰江水库以东约5公里处,台站附近地势比较平坦,地表为老第三纪红层,厚约300米左右。 台站建于1968年,目前共有5道测线,它们分别垂直或平行于河源断裂,其中第四道测线布设在河源断层的东南侧,并与断层垂直,线路长1000米。 由于该台位于我国南方,空气湿度大,雨季  相似文献   

登陆过程中热带风暴"黄蜂"螺旋云带的分析   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

陈子通 《热带气象学报》2003,19(Z1):56-64

分析了热带风暴"黄蜂"在登陆过程中逐小时高分辨红外云图上的螺旋云带及其强对流云团的变化规律.从强对流云团发展为主螺旋云带的演变过程中,螺旋云带主要表现为其前端的对流逐渐加强,其余部分逐渐减弱,以及前端的强对流云团总体表现为旋入运动且维持时间较长,而其余部分的云团总体表现为远离中心等的特征.初步探讨了螺旋云带结构变化与风暴强度之间的关系和"黄蜂"在登陆后迅速减弱的可能原因.  相似文献