A Quick Report on a Dynamical Downscaling Simulation over China Using the Nested Model   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

YU En-Tao  WANG Hui-Jun  SUN Jian-Qi 《大气和海洋科学快报》2010,3(6):325-329

This paper describes a dynamical downscaling simulation over China using the nested model system, which consists of the modified Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) nested with the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Results show that dynamical downscaling is of great value in improving the model simulation of regional climatic characteristics. WRF simulates regional detailed temperature features better than CAM. With the spatial correlation coefficient between the observation and the simulation increasing from 0.54 for CAM to 0.79 for WRF, the improvement in precipitation simulation is more perceptible with WRF. Furthermore, the WRF simulation corrects the spatial bias of the precipitation in the CAM simulation.  相似文献   

降尺度法在海南省降水趋势预测中的应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

吴慧  吴胜安  邢旭煌 《气象研究与应用》2008,29(1):9-12

从动力和统计相结合的角度,利用国家气候中心研制的动力气候模式输出的月、季平均500hPa高度场及其派生变量场作为预测因子,制作海南省月、季降水量趋势预测。月降水量经22个独立样本试验、季降水量经17个独立样本试验,趋势预报评分均超过国家局业务考核标准和同期业务发布评分,表明建立的预测模型可在海南省短期气候预测业务中参考使用。  相似文献   

极端气候变化的研究进展   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13  

丁裕国  郑春雨  申红艳 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2008,2(6):1-5

着重从观测和模拟研究、极值分布理论和降尺度技术方法等几个方面,介绍了近年来极端气候及其变化的研究进展。限于篇幅,文中略去了相当多的内容,只是非常简要地作了客观评价和展望。  相似文献   

Estimating near-shore wave statistics from regional hindcasts using downscaling techniques     

Lidia Gaslikova  Ralf Weisse 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(1):26-35

Several downscaling techniques, comprising fully dynamical and statistical–dynamical methods applied to near-shore local wave climate, are tested and assessed in terms of wave statistics with respect to the added value that can be achieved compared to larger scale data. The techniques are applied for the example of Helgoland, a small island in the German Bight. It was found that an improved representation could generally be obtained from all downscaling techniques by comparing the near-shore wave climate. Based on a balance between the required computer resources and the improvements achieved, it is suggested, to this end, that a dynamical–statistical approach based on high-resolution coastal wave modeling and linear regression provides the optimal choice.  相似文献   

A Monthly Atmospheric Circulation Classification and Its Relationship with Climate in Harbin   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

JIA Liwei  LI Weijing  CHEN Deliang  AN Xiaocun 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2006,20(4):402-412

In this study,the classification scheme developed by Jenkinson and Collison (1977) based on a typing scheme of Lamb (1950) is applied to obtain circulation types from the mean sea-level pressure on a monthly basis.Monthly mean sea-level pressure data from 1951 to 2002 are used to derive six circulation indices and to provide a circulation catalogue with 27 circulation types.Five major types (N,NW,C,CSW,and SW) which occurred most frequently are analyzed to reveal their relationships with the temperature of Harbin on various time scales.Stepwise multiple regression is used to reconstruct temperature anomaly.The monthly mean rainfall of all types occurring and the composite maps of three major types (C,CSW,and SW) relevant to Harbin's precipitation are studied. The results show that the dominant types in winter are types N and NW.types C,CSW,and SW occur frequently in summer.Types N and NW favor a negative temperature anomaly and correspond to less rainfall,while types C,CSW,and SW often induce a positive temperature anomaly and correspond to more rainfall.Moreover,a successful statistical model can be established with only one of the six indices and large-scale mean temperature.Using the model,77.3% of the total variance in the temperature anomaly between 1951 and 2002 can be reconstructed.Type C has a close relationship with total rainfall and type C precipitation plays a major role in determining the total rainfall of Harbin in recent years.This classification scheme is a statistical downscaling model and its relationships with temperature and precipitation can be used to forecast regional climate.  相似文献   

Projection of climate change for daily precipitation: a case study in Shih‐Men reservoir catchment in Taiwan     

Tao‐Chang Yang  Pao‐Shan Yu  Chi‐Ma Wei  Shien‐Tsung Chen 《水文研究》2011,25(8):1342-1354

A statistical downscaling model, based on the outputs of general circulation models (GCMs) as predictors, was proposed to simulate the daily precipitations in the Shih‐Men reservoir catchment in Taiwan. The structure of the proposed downscaling model is composed of two parts: classification and regression. Predictors of classification and regression models were selected from the large‐scale weather variables in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NECP) reanalysis data based on statistical tests. Discriminant analysis and support vector regression (SVR) were applied to build the classification and regression models. The outputs of five atmosphere‐ocean GCMs, which are reported to have properly considered tropical cyclone information and East Asian Monsoon modelling, were used for projecting future precipitations. Data from four grids covering Taiwan were used for developing the downscaling model. The potential of the downscaling models in simulating local precipitations was evaluated, and downscaling results reveal that the proposed downscaling model can reproduce local daily precipitations from large‐scale weather variables. Projected local precipitations under two emission scenarios show that the precipitations in the study area tend to decrease. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

高精度曲面建模的中国气候降尺度模型   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王晨亮  岳天祥  范泽孟  赵娜  孙晓芳 《地球信息科学学报》2012,14(5):599-610

 与站点统计降尺度插值和动力降尺度相比,高精度曲面建模(HASM)降尺度,具有不需大尺度预报因子,直接从GCM结果构建区域上高空间分辨率的未来气候模拟曲面的优势。HASM降尺度将未来气候,分为历史观测拟合的气候基准值和GCM未来气候变化值进行模拟,精度明显高于传统方法,但常系数全局拟合的气候基准值忽略了降水分布的空间非平稳性,导致降水模拟受到较大影响。为增强降水降尺度的气候背景值的描述能力,通过分析全国尺度降水的非线性非平稳性特点,提出耦合空间变系数气候基准值的HASM空间变系数降尺度模型(HASM-SVDM)以改进HASM对非平稳要素的降尺度能力,并以1961-2010年全国气温降水观测数据结合地形特征信息,利用HASM降尺度方法对HadCM3的A1Fi、A2a和B2a 3种情景的1961-1990、2010-2039、2040-2069和2070-2099时段的全国未来气温与降水进行降尺度模拟。分析表明,耦合全局线性模型的HASM常系数降尺度模型适合全国气温的降尺度模拟,而耦合空间变系数拟合的HASM-SVDM增强了空间非平稳背景值的描述能力,模拟的空间分布更能体现降水总体的非均匀分布趋势,适合全国降水的降尺度模拟。  相似文献   

中国农村地区房屋结构及其脆弱性的分析(英文)     

高晓路  季珏 《地理学报(英文版)》2013,23(1):179-191

The damage of dwelling houses constitutes the primary cause of casualties and asset loss in seismic disasters that occurred in Chinese rural areas. The structure of houses is crucial for assessing the vulnerability of rural houses. However, at present, available data on rural housing structure are incomplete and their spatial scales are inconsistent. This paper estimated the amount and ratio of rural houses in five structures, namely ’wood’, ’brick’, ’mixed’, ’reinforced concrete’, and ’other’, for 2380 counties across China. With the percent-age sampling census data in 2005, four accuracy levels were specified. Then, a set of down-scaling models were established, where the impact of climate, economic development level and ethnic minority cultural factors on rural housing structure, as well as the spatial autocorrelation of neighboring spatial units were considered. Based on the estimation results, a database of county-level rural housing structure was established, based on which the vul-nerability of rural houses in different areas was clarified.  相似文献   

An intercomparison of remotely sensed soil moisture products at various spatial scales over the Iberian Peninsula   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

R. M. Parinussa  M. T. Yilmaz  M. C. Anderson  C. R. Hain  R. A. M. de Jeu 《水文研究》2014,28(18):4865-4876

Soil moisture (SM) can be retrieved from active microwave (AM), passive microwave (PM) and thermal infrared (TIR) observations, each having unique spatial and temporal coverages. A limitation of TIR‐based retrievals is a dependence on cloud‐free conditions, whereas microwave retrievals are almost all weather proof. A downside of SM retrievals from PM is the coarse spatial resolution. Although SM retrievals at coarse spatial resolution proved to be valuable for global‐scale and continental‐scale studies, their value for regional‐scale studies remains limited. To increase the use of SM retrievals from PM observations, an existing method to enhance their spatial resolution was applied. We present an intercomparison study over the Iberian Peninsula for three SM products on two different spatial sampling grids. The remotely sensed SM products were also compared with in situ observations from the Remedhus network. Variations between ground data and satellite‐based SM are observed; all three remotely sensed SM products show good agreement to the ground observations. The comparison shows that these ground observations and satellite data are consistent, based on the correlation coefficient (R) and root mean square error (RMSE). The remotely sensed products were intercompared after sampling at 25 × 25 km² and after applying the smoothing filter‐based intensity modulation (SFIM) downscaling technique at 10 × 10 km² grids. After the application of the SFIM technique, the SM retrievals from PM observations show better agreement with the other remotely sensed SM products for approximately 40% of the study area. For another 40% of the study area, we found a similar agreement between these product combinations, whereas in extreme environments, both arid and densely vegetated regions, the agreement decreases after the application of the SFIM technique. Agreement between retrievals of absolute SM content from PM and TIR observations is generally high (R = 0.77 for semi‐arid areas). This study enhances our understanding of the remotely sensed SM products for improvements of SM retrieval and merging strategies. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于统计降尺度模型的博斯腾湖流域未来最高和最低气温变化趋势分析     

邱冰  姜加虎 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2010,1(3):273+268-272

SDSM统计降尺度模型是解决空间尺度不匹配问题的有效工具,它使气候变化响应研究得以在区域尺度上展开。本文将SDSM模型应用于博斯腾湖流域分析它的适用性,并对流域未来最高和最低气温的变化趋势进行了预测。以日最高气温和最低气温为预报量,选取合适的NCEP大气环流因子为预报因子,建立预报量与预报因子间的回归关系。使用1961-1990、1991-2001年的实测数据和NCEP大气变量分别对SDSM模型进行率定和验证,效果较好。把HadCM3输出的A2、B2情景下的大气环流变量作为模型输入变量,模拟流域未来3个时期(21世纪20、50和90年代)的气温变化。结果显示,流域未来日最高气温和日最低气温都呈现明显上升趋势,升高幅度依次为:日最高气温日平均气温日最低气温,且A2情景下气温增幅略大于B2情景下的增幅;冬季气温增幅最小,夏季增幅最大。分析结果可为博斯腾湖流域开展气候变化的水文响应研究以及气候变化的适应性研究提供科学依据。  相似文献