Persistence and long-term memories of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in southern South America     

Gustavo Naumann  Walter M. Vargas  Juan L. Minetti 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,105(3-4):341-355

The persistence and long-term memories in daily maximum and minimum temperature series during the instrumental period in southern South America were analysed. Here, we found a markedly seasonal pattern both for short- and long-term memories that can lead to enhanced predictability on intraseasonal timescales. In addition, well-defined spatial patterns of these properties were found in the region. Throughout the entire region, the strongest dependence was observed in autumn and early winter. In the Patagonia region only, the temperatures exhibited more memory during the spring. In general, these elements indicate that nonlinear interactions exist between the annual cycles of temperature and its anomalies. Knowledge of the spatiotemporal behaviour of these long-term memories can be used in the building of stochastic models that only use persistence. It is possible to propose two objective forecast models based on linear interactions associated with persistence and one that allows for the use of information from nonlinear interactions that are manifested in the form of forerunners.  相似文献   

Degradation and Detoxification of Chlorophenols in Continuous‐Flow Fixed‐Bed Aerobic Reactors     

Alfredo Gallego  Virginia L. Gemini  Susana L. Rossi  Carlos E. Gómez  Gustavo D. Bulus Rossini  Sonia E. Korol 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2011,39(8):774-780

An indigenous bacterial strain of Delftia sp. capable of degrading 2,4‐dicholorophenol and an indigenous bacterial community that degrades 2,4,6‐trichlorophenol (TCP) were employed to inoculate continuous down‐flow fixed‐bed reactors. Continuous‐reactors were constructed from PVC employing hollow PVC cylinders as support material. Synthetic wastewater was prepared by dissolving the corresponding chlorophenol in non‐sterile groundwater. Biodegradation was evaluated by spectrophotometry, chloride release, GC, and microbial growth. Detoxification was evaluated by using Daphnia magna as test organism. Delftia sp. was able to remove an average of 95.6% of DCP. Efficiency in terms of chemical oxygen demand (COD) was of 88.9%. The indigenous bacterial community that degrades TCP reached an average efficiency of 96.5 and 91.6% in terms of compound and COD removal, respectively. In both cases stoichiometric removal of chloride and detoxification was achieved. When synthetic wastewater feed was cut off for 7 days, both reactors showed a fast recovery after inflow restarting, reaching average outlet concentration values within 36 h. The promising behavior of the microorganisms and the low cost of the reactors tested allow us to suggest their possible application to remediation processes.  相似文献   

Linking multi-temporal analysis and community consultation to evaluate the response to the impact of Hurricane Stan in coffee areas of Chiapas,Mexico     

Gustavo M. Cruz-Bello  Hallie Eakin  Helda Morales  Juan F. Barrera 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(1):103-116

This paper analyses the responses related to land use of coffee growers in Chiapas, Mexico to the impact of Hurricane Stan (October 2005). A multi-temporal analysis of the effect on land cover was performed through the combination of unsupervised classification of SPOT multispectral images and visual interpretation of panchromatic images (8 months previous to the hurricane, and 2, 14, and 40 months after the hurricane). The information provided by this geographic analysis was interpreted in light of information gathered though household surveys. Although the hurricane wrecked havoc across the region, the main impact in the study area was in the riparian zones where the extent of the loss experienced in terms of coffee harvest and soil was such that, even 14 months after the event, households with land in those areas were struggling to recover. Nevertheless, after 40 months, the zones that had suffered total soil loss began to support soil and vegetation, indicating the possibility of replanting coffee in those areas. Although the hurricane occurred when the coffee sector was particularly fragile as a result of the preceding several years of poor prices, the impact did not trigger extensive land use change. The surveys showed, however, that people are now more informed of the risk of living and farming on the river margins and are now performing soil conservation practices and planting trees to reduce risk.  相似文献   

Volcanic ash forecast during the June 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Estela Collini  María Soledad Osores  Arnau Folch  José G. Viramonte  Gustavo Villarosa  Graciela Salmuni 《Natural Hazards》2013,66(2):389-412

We modelled the transport and deposition of ash from the June 2011 eruption from Cordón Caulle volcanic complex, Chile. The modelling strategy, currently under development at the Argentinean Naval Hydrographic Service and National Meteorological Service, couples the weather research and forecasting (WRF/ARW) meteorological model with the FALL3D ash dispersal model. The strategy uses volcanological inputs inferred from satellite imagery, eruption reports and preliminary grain-size data obtained during the first days of the eruption from an Argentinean ash sample collection network. In this sense, the results shown here can be regarded as a quasi-syn-eruptive forecast for the first 16 days of the eruption. Although this article describes the modelling process in the aftermath of the crisis, the strategy was implemented from the beginning of the eruption, and results were made available to the Buenos Aires Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers and other end users. The model predicts ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, expected deposit thickness and ash accumulation rates at relevant localities. Here, we validate the modelling strategy by comparing results with satellite retrievals and syn-eruptive ground deposit measurements. Results highlight the goodness of the combined WRF/ARW-FALL3D forecasting system and point out the usefulness of coupling both models for short-term forecast of volcanic ash clouds.  相似文献   

Estimating suspended sediment concentrations from turbidity measurements and the calibration problem   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jean P. G. Minella  Gustavo H. Merten  José M. Reichert  Robin T. Clarke 《水文研究》2008,22(12):1819-1830

In situ turbidity meters are being increasingly used to generate continuous records of suspended sediment concentration in rivers. However, the usefulness of the information obtained depends heavily on the existence of a close relationship between fluctuations in suspended sediment concentration and turbidity and the calibration procedure that relates suspended sediment concentration to the turbidity meter's signal. This study assesses the relationship between suspended sediment concentration and turbidity for a small (1·19 km²) rural catchment in southern Brazil and evaluates two calibration methods by comparing the estimates of suspended sediment concentration obtained from the calibrated turbidity readings with direct measurements obtained using a USDH 48 suspended sediment sampler. With the first calibration method, the calibration relationship is derived by relating the turbidity readings to simultaneous measurements of concentration obtained from suspended sediment samples collected from the vicinity of the turbidity probe during flood events. With the second method, the calibration is based on the readings obtained from the turbidity meter when the probe immersed in samples of known concentration prepared using soils collected from the catchment. Overall, there was a close link between fluctuations in suspended sediment concentration and turbidity in the stream at the outlet of the catchment, and the estimates of sediment concentration obtained using the first calibration method corresponded closely with the conventionally measured sediment concentrations. However, use of the second calibration method introduced appreciable errors. When the estimated sediment concentrations were compared with the measured values, the mean errors were ± 122 mg l^?1 and + 601 mg l^?1 for the first and second calibration procedures respectively. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Classification of seismic signals at Villarrica volcano (Chile) using neural networks and genetic algorithms     

Gloria Curilem  Jorge Vergara  Gustavo Fuentealba  Gonzalo Acuña  Max Chacón 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2009

Each volcano has its own unique seismic activity. The aim of this work is to construct a system able to classify seismic signals for the Villarrica volcano, one of the most active volcanoes in South America. Since seismic signals are the result of particular processes inside the volcano's structure, they can be used to forecast volcanic activity. This paper describes the different kinds of seismic signals recorded at the Villarrica volcano and their significance. Three kind of signals were considered as most representative of this volcano's activity: the long-period, the tremor, and the energetic tremor signals. A classifier is implemented to read the seismic registers at 30-second intervals, extract the most relevant features of each interval, and classify them into one of the three kinds of signals considered as most representative of this particular volcano. To do so, 1033 different kinds of 30-s signals were extracted and classified by a human expert. A feature extraction process was applied to obtain the main characteristics of each of them. This process was developed using criteria which have been shown by others to effectively classify seismic signals, based on the experience of a human expert. The classifier was implemented with a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network whose architecture and training process were optimized by means of a genetic algorithm. This technique searched for the most adequate MLP configuration to improve the classification performance, optimizing the number of hidden neurons, the transfer functions of the neurons, and the training algorithm. The optimization process also performed a feature selection to reduce the number of signal features, optimizing the number of network inputs. The results show that the optimized classifier reaches more than 93% exactitude. identifying the signals of each kind. The amplitude of the signals is the most important feature for its classification, followed by its frequency content. The described methodology can be used to classify more seismic signals to improve the study of the activity of this volcano or to extend the study to other active volcanoes of the region.  相似文献   

Long‐term sediment yield from a small catchment in southern Brazil affected by land use and soil management changes          下载免费PDF全文

Jean P.G. Minella  Gustavo H. Merten  Claúdia A.P. Barros  Rafael Ramon  Alexandre Schlesner  Robin T. Clarke  Michele Moro  Leandro Dalbianco 《水文研究》2018,32(2):200-211

Sediments produced from eroding cultivated land can cause on‐site and off‐site effects that cause considerable economic and social impacts. Despite the importance of soil conservation practices (SCP) for the control of soil erosion and improvements in soil hydrological functions, limited information is available regarding the effects of SCP on sediment yield (SY) at the catchment scale. This study aimed to investigate the long‐term relationships between SY and land use, soil management, and rainfall in a small catchment. To determine the effects of anthropogenic and climatic factors on SY, rainfall, streamflow, and suspended sediment concentration were monitored at 10‐min intervals for 14 years (2002–2016), and the land use and soil management changes were surveyed annually. Using a statistical procedure to separate the SY effects of climate, land use, and soil management, we observed pronounced temporal effects of land use and soil management changes on SY. During the first 2 years (2002–2004), the land was predominantly cultivated with tobacco under a traditional tillage system (no cover crops and ploughed soil) using animal traction. In that period, the SY reached approximately 400 t·km^?2·year^?1. From 2005 to 2009, a soil conservation programme introduced conservation tillage and winter cover crops in the catchment area, which lowered the SY to 50 t·km^?2·year^?1. In the final period (2010–2016), the SCP were partially abandoned by farmers, and reforested areas increased, resulting in an SY of 150 t·km^?2·year^?1. This study also discusses the factors associated with the failure to continue using SCP, including structural support and farmer attitudes.  相似文献   

Deep neural network application for 4D seismic inversion to changes in pressure and saturation: Optimizing the use of synthetic training datasets     

Gustavo Côrte  Jesper Dramsch  Hamed Amini  Colin MacBeth 《Geophysical Prospecting》2020,68(7):2164-2185

In this work, we tackle the challenge of quantitative estimation of reservoir dynamic property variations during a period of production, directly from four-dimensional seismic data in the amplitude domain. We employ a deep neural network to invert four-dimensional seismic amplitude maps to the simultaneous changes in pressure, water and gas saturations. The method is applied to a real field data case, where, as is common in such applications, the data measured at the wells are insufficient for properly training deep neural networks, thus, the network is trained on synthetic data. Training on synthetic data offers much freedom in designing a training dataset, therefore, it is important to understand the impact of the data distribution on the inversion results. To define the best way to construct a synthetic training dataset, we perform a study on four different approaches to populating the training set making remarks on data sizes, network generality and the impact of physics-based constraints. Using the results of a reservoir simulation model to populate our training datasets, we demonstrate the benefits of restricting training samples to fluid flow consistent combinations in the dynamic reservoir property domain. With this the network learns the physical correlations present in the training set, incorporating this information into the inference process, which allows it to make inferences on properties to which the seismic data are most uncertain. Additionally, we demonstrate the importance of applying regularization techniques such as adding noise to the synthetic data for training and show a possibility of estimating uncertainties in the inversion results by training multiple networks.  相似文献   

Morphological Variation of the Sea Silverside Odontesthes regia in Regions with Dissimilar Upwelling Intensity along the Humboldt Current System     

Deville  Diego  Sanchez  Gustavo  Barahona  Sergio  Yamashiro  Carmen  Oré-Chávez  Daniel  Bazán  Roger Quiroz  Umino  Tetsuya 《Ocean Science Journal》2020,55(1):33-48

Ocean Science Journal - We evaluated the influence of areas with dissimilar upwelling intensity along the Humboldt Current System on the morphological variation of the economically important sea...  相似文献   

Preface     

Elisabete M. de Gouveia Dal Pino  Anthony L. Peratt  Gustavo A. Medina Tanco  Abraham C. -L. Chian 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1996,242(1-2):1-2

  相似文献