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31.
热带大气低频振荡 (MJO) 和北半球夏季季节内振荡 (BSISO) 对全球范围天气气候事件有重要影响,是次季节-季节 (S2S) 预报最主要的可预报性来源之一。国家气候中心 (BCC) 基于我国完全自主的T639全球分析场数据、风云三号气象卫星射出长波辐射 (OLR) 资料以及BCC第2代大气环流模式系统的实时预报,发展了MJO实时监测预测一体化业务技术,建立了ISV/MJO监测预测业务系统 (IMPRESS1.0),已投入实时业务运行,在全国气象业务系统得到应用。该文着重介绍该系统提供的MJO和BSISO指数监测预测数据和图形产品,并描述了这些业务产品在2015年对MJO典型个例的实时监测预测应用情况。监测分析和预报检验表明,基于我国自主资料的监测结果能够较为准确地表征MJO和BSISO指数的振荡和演变过程,该系统对MJO和BSISO事件分别至少具备16 d和10 d左右的预报技巧。因此,基于IMPRESS1.0的MJO/BSISO监测预测一体化业务产品可为制作延伸期预报提供重要的参考依据。 相似文献
32.
使用1951—2013年NOAA OLR、NCEP/NCAR风场和高度场再分析资料、中国气象局热带气旋资料,分析2013年影响广西热带气旋数量偏多的原因。结果表明：2013年6—9月西太平洋副热带高压明显偏强,西伸脊点明显偏西,脊线略偏北,同时副热带高压南侧对流活跃,降水过程潜热释放有助于副热带高压位置偏北,这种形势非常有利于热带气旋向广西移动。索马里越赤道气流强劲,在南海及菲律宾与北太平洋反气旋西南侧的东南气流相遇,形成季风槽,非常有利于热带气旋生成频数偏多。热带低频强对流带在印度洋和西太平洋活动频繁,并分别向东向西移动;赤道东太平洋海温偏低;哈得来和沃克环流较常年偏强,沃克环流上升支位置偏西,这些也可能是2013年影响广西热带气旋数量偏多的原因之一。 相似文献
33.
This study uses NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data, NOAA outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) data, the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Tibetan Plateau vortex (TPV) data from the Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology to discuss modulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the Tibetan Plateau Vortex (TPV). Wavelet and composite analysis are used. Results show that the MJO plays an important role in the occurrence of the TPV that the number of TPVs generated within an active period of the MJO is three times as much as that during an inactive period. In addition, during the active period, the number of the TPVs generated in phases 1 and 2 is larger than that in phases 3 and 7. After compositing phases 1 and 7 separately, all meteorological elements in phase 1 are apparently conducive to the generation of the TPV, whereas those in phase 7 are somewhat constrained. With its eastward propagation process, the MJO convection centre spreads eastward, and the vertical circulation within the tropical atmosphere changes. Due to the interaction between the mid-latitude and low-latitude atmosphere, changes occur in the baroclinic characteristics of the atmosphere, the available potential energy and eddy available potential energy of the atmosphere, and the circulation structures of the atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and surrounding areas. This results in significantly different water vapour transportation and latent heat distribution. Advantageous and disadvantageous conditions therefore alternate, leading to a significant difference among the numbers of plateau vortex in different phases. 相似文献
34.
夏季MJO持续异常的主要特征分析 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
在MJO传播过程中,其活动中心并不总是规律地沿赤道东传。本文通过资料分析发现,夏季MJO的活动中心会出现东传停滞的情况,表现为MJO在赤道太平洋持续异常活跃或者在印度洋持续异常活跃两种形式。为更好描述MJO这种东传不明显的异常特征,本文定义了一个描述MJO持续异常的指数,并据此对夏季MJO持续异常的主要特征进行分析。通过小波分析的方法,发现夏季MJO持续异常时其振荡周期会出现缩短或变弱。通过对MJO持续异常状况下的大气环流进行合成对比分析后发现,夏季MJO的持续异常会对热带大气环流造成显著的影响。具体表现为:MJO夏季在赤道太平洋（印度洋）持续活跃的时候,赤道沃克环流减弱（增强）,西太平洋哈得来环流增强（减弱）,西太平洋副高位置偏北（偏南）,赤道太平洋（印度洋）高层辐散且对流活跃。 相似文献
35.
Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJO) in six integrations using an AGCM with different cumulus
parameterization schemes and resolutions are examined to investigate their impacts on the MJO simulation.
Results suggest that the MJO simulation can be affected by both resolution and cumulus parameterization,
though the latter, which determines the fundamental ability of the AGCM in simulating the MJO and the
characteristics of the simulated MJO, is more crucial than the former. Model resolution can substantially
affect the simulated MJO in certain aspects. Increasing resolution cannot improve the simulated MJO
substantially, but can significantly modulate the detailed character of the simulated MJO; meanwhile, the
impacts of resolution are dependent on the cumulus parameterization, determining the basic features of the
MJO. Changes in the resolution do not alter the nature of the simulated MJO but rather regulate the
simulation itself, which is constrained by cumulus parameterization schemes. Therefore, the vertical
resolution needs to be increased simultaneously. The vertical profile of diabatic heating may be a crucial
factor that is responsible for these different modeling results. To a large extent, it is determined by the
cumulus parameterization scheme used. 相似文献
36.
赤道西风爆发现象(西风爆发)是指赤道表面西风突然增大的现象,已有研究表明赤道太平洋西风爆发与ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) 有密切的关系。本文就西风爆发现象在CMIP5中的模拟情况进行了相关评价,并将其与观测结果进行对比;同时对西风爆发与ENSO的关系、西风爆发与MJO的关系进行了细致的分析与评价。研究结果表明,模式可以很好地再现西风爆发随厄尔尼诺事件发生而向东移动的现象,这主要是由于赤道太平洋西风爆发与赤道太平洋海表温度有很好的对应关系。在大部分模式中,西风爆发领先于厄尔尼诺的发生,并对厄尔尼诺的发展有着相应的影响。与前人的研究结果不同,利用蒙特卡洛验证法证明MJO不能显著地增加西风爆发发生的概率,这一点也在大部分CMIP5模式中有所体现。 相似文献
37.
With the Zebiak-Cane model and a parameterized stochastic representation of intraseasonal forcing,
the impact of the uncertainties of Madden–Jullian Oscillation (MJO) on the “Spring Predictability Barrier
(SPB)” for El Ni?no–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction is studied. The parameterized form of MJO
forcing is added physically to the Zebiak-Cane model to obtain the so-called Zebiak-Cane-MJO model and
then the effects of initial error, stochastic model error, and their joint error mode on the SPB associated
with El Ni?no prediction are estimated. The results show that the model errors caused by stochastic MJO
forcing could hardly lead to a significant SPB while initial errors can do; furthermore, the joint error mode of
initial error and model error associated with the stochastic MJO forcing can also lead to a significant SPB.
These demonstrate that the initial error is probably the main error source of the SPB, which may provide
a theoretical foundation of data assimilation for ENSO forecasts. 相似文献
38.
In this study, the impacts of the tropical Pacific–Indian Ocean associated mode (PIOAM) on Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity were investigated using reanalysis data. In the positive (negative) phase of the PIOAM, the amplitudes of MJO zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation are significantly weakened (enhanced) over the Indian Ocean, while they are enhanced (weakened) over the central and eastern Pacific. The eastward propagation of the MJO can extend to the central Pacific in the positive phase of the PIOAM, whereas it is mainly confined to west of 160°E in the negative phase. The PIOAM impacts MJO activity by modifying the atmospheric circulation and moisture budget. Anomalous ascending (descending) motion and positive (negative) moisture anomalies occur over the western Indian Ocean and central-eastern Pacific (Maritime Continent and western Pacific) during the positive phase of the PIOAM. The anomalous circulation is almost the opposite in the negative phases of the PIOAM. This anomalous circulation and moisture can modulate the activity of the MJO. The stronger moistening over the Indian Ocean induced by zonal and vertical moisture advection leads to the stronger MJO activity over the Indian Ocean in the negative phase of the PIOAM. During the positive phase of the PIOAM, the MJO propagates farther east over the central Pacific owing to the stronger moistening there, which is mainly attributable to the meridional and vertical moisture advection, especially low-frequency background state moisture advection by the MJO’s meridional and vertical velocities. 相似文献
39.
By analyzing NCEP-NCAR reanalysis daily data for 1979–2016, the modulation by Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) of the wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) over high latitude is examined. The real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index, which divides the MJO into eight phases, is used. It is found that a significantly negative SAT anomaly over the northern high latitude region of (180°–60 °W, 60°–90 °N) lags the MJO convection for 1∼2 weeks in phase 3, in which the enhanced convective activity exists over the Indian Ocean. While a significantly positive SAT anomaly appears over the same region following the MJO phase 7, as the tropical heating shows an opposite sign. Analysis of the anomalous circulation indicates that the observed SAT signal is probably a result of the northeastward propagating Rossby wave train triggered by MJO-related tropical forcing through Rossby wave energy dispersion. By using an anomalous atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), the significant effect of tropical forcing on organizing the extratropical circulation anomaly is confirmed. Analysis of a temperature tendency equation further reveals that the intraseasonal SAT anomaly is primarily attributed to the advection of the mean temperature by the wind anomaly associated with the anomalous circulation of the MJO-related variability. 相似文献
40.
利用国家气象信息中心提供的753站降水资料,澳大利亚气象局提供的RMM MJO指数资料和NECP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,分析了2013年夏季长江中下游地区降水持续异常与MJO位相异常的可能联系。结果表明：2013年夏季长江中下游地区持续干旱期间,MJO位相分布明显异常,MJO东传停滞,长时间维持在第1、8位相;西太平洋副热带高压偏北偏强。当MJO位于第1、8位相时,东亚高纬度地区的环流距平场呈现“西高东低”的分布特征,不利于西伯利亚地区的冷空气南下至长江中下游地区;当MJO位于第1位相时,副热带高压西北侧水汽主要输送至长江中下游地区,第8位相时,输送至长江中下游地区的水汽异常偏少。总之,当MJO位于第1、8位相时,冷空气活动较弱,冷暖空气无法在长江中下游地区交汇,同时该地区深厚的下沉运动从近地面一直延伸至对流层上层,不利于降水的发生,导致2013年夏季降水持续偏少。 相似文献