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31.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):857-867
Abstract Water abstraction for irrigation upstream of a reservoir and its impact on reservoir yield and reliability are studied. Water demand and availability are strongly related in semi-arid environments where the irrigation sector is responsible for a large part of consumptive water use. Variations in water abstractions for irrigation depend on irrigation requirements per hectare and the size of the irrigated area. The Orós Reservoir in semi-arid Northeast Brazil has been taken as a case study. The results show that water abstracttion for irrigation is of significant importance for reservoir yield and reliability. Yield—reliability simulations for the study area show that taking into account upstream water abstraction for a reservoir yield of 20.0 m3/s results in a water-scarcity probability of 10% on an annual basis (90% reliability). This is only 5% if up-stream abstraction for irrigation is ignored. This study shows that observed land-use changes in the study area do have a significant impact on reservoir yield reliability. The variability of upstream water abstraction was found to be of low importance for reservoir yield and reliability. 相似文献
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Yanjun Shen Taikan Oki Shinjiro Kanae Naota Hanasaki Nobuyuki Utsumi Masashi Kiguchi 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(10):1775-1793
AbstractChanges in water resources availability, as affected by global climate warming, together with changes in water withdrawal, could influence the world water resources stress situation. In this study, we investigate how the world water resources situation will likely change under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by integrating water withdrawal projections. First, the potential changes in water resources availability are investigated by a multi-model analysis of the ensemble outputs of six general circulation models (GCMs) from organizations worldwide. The analysis suggests that, while climate warming might increase water resources availability to human society, there is a large discrepancy in the size of the water resource depending on the GCM used. Secondly, the changes in water-stressed basins and the number of people living in them are evaluated by two indices at the basin scale. The numbers were projected to increase in the future and possibly to be doubled in the 2050s for the three SRES scenarios A1b, A2 and B1. Finally, the relative impacts of population growth, water use change and climate warming on world water resources are investigated using the global highly water-stressed population as an overall indicator. The results suggest that population and socio-economic development are the major drivers of growing world water resources stress. Even though water availability was projected to increase under different warming scenarios, the reduction of world water stress is very limited. The principal alternative to sustainable governance of world water resources is to improve water-use efficiency globally by effectively reducing net water withdrawal.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Gerten 相似文献
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Dam overtopping risk assessment considering inspection program 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Jan-Tai Kuo Yung-Chia Hsu Yeou-Koung Tung Keh-Chia Yeh Jian-De Wu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2008,22(3):303-313
Safety inspection of large dams in Taiwan is conducted every 5 years. The practice does not take into consideration uncertainty
of dam conditions. The goal of this study is to determine the optimal dam inspection interval under the consideration of overtopping
risk incorporating uncertainty gate availability. In earlier studies, assessment of overtopping risk only considered the uncertainties
in reservoir properties and natural randomness of hydrologic events without giving much thought to the availability of spillway
gates. As a result, the overtopping risk could be underestimated. In this study, an innovative concept is proposed to evaluate
dam overtopping by taking into account spillway gate availability. The framework consists of three parts: (1) evaluation of
conditional overtopping risk for different numbers of malfunctioning spillway gates; (2) evaluation of spillway gate availability;
and (3) dam inspection scheduling. Furthermore, considerations are given to overtopping risk, inspection cost, and dam break
cost for determining the optimal inspection schedule. The methodology is applied to the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan and to
evaluate its time-dependent overtopping risk. Results show that overtopping risk considering the availability of the spillway
gates is higher than the one without considering the availability of the spillway gates. 相似文献
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以黄河三门峡地区为研究对象,构建适用于流域尺度植被生态用水估算的生态水文模型,对三门峡地区20世纪50年代以来植被生态用水量进行了定量模拟,得到研究区植被生态用水时空结构差异.在此基础上,对三门峡地区不同植被类型绿水资源消耗效用进行了分析,提出该区域植被结构调整方案.结果表明:三门峡地区植被生态用水量自20世纪50年代以来,由于气候和土地利用状况的变化,总体呈现出降低-稳定-上升的趋势;生态用水空间结构主要表现在不同植被类型下生态用水量差异上:林地最大,其次为农作物、灌丛,草地最小;林地高效消耗比例最大,其次为草地和灌丛,农用地最小.基于不同植被类型绿水资源消耗效用分析,提出三门峡地区植被结构调整方案.在一定水资源消耗量状况下,减少无效和低效消耗量,增加高效消耗量,是缓解该地区生产、生活、生态用水矛盾,提高总体生态效益的重要途径. 相似文献
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Modelling blue and green water resources availability in Iran 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
Knowledge of the internal renewable water resources of a country is strategic information which is needed for long‐term planning of a nation's water and food security, among many other needs. New modelling tools allow this quantification with high spatial and temporal resolution. In this study we used the program Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in combination with the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting program (SUFI‐2) to calibrate and validate a hydrologic model of Iran based on river discharges and wheat yield, taking into consideration dam operations and irrigation practices. Uncertainty analyses were also performed to assess the model performance. The results were quite satisfactory for most of the rivers across the country. We quantified all components of the water balance including blue water flow (water yield plus deep aquifer recharge), green water flow (actual and potential evapotranspiration) and green water storage (soil moisture) at sub‐basin level with monthly time‐steps. The spatially aggregated water resources and simulated yield compared well with the existing data. The study period was 1990–2002 for calibration and 1980–1989 for validation. The results show that irrigation practices have a significant impact on the water balances of the provinces with irrigated agriculture. Concerning the staple food crop in the country, 55% of irrigated wheat and 57% of rain‐fed wheat are produced every year in water‐scarce regions. The vulnerable situation of water resources availability has serious implications for the country's food security, and the looming impact of climate change could only worsen the situation. This study provides a strong basis for further studies concerning the water and food security and the water resources management strategies in the country and a unified approach for the analysis of blue and green water in other arid and semi‐arid countries. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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A method to construct a nomogram of the daytime mixed-layer-height evolution is presented. The nomogram will be specific for a given location and land surface type and is intended to be an easy tool to achieve a general understanding of mixed-layer behaviour. Also it is a pedagogical graphical one-pager that displays the bulk of data that controls the evolution of the mixed layer. Nomograms from northern, central and southern Europe are presented and discussed. Comparison with data from two sites shows good agreement although the nomograms overestimated the mixing height when it was low. 相似文献
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