Classification of mineral deposits into types using mineralogy with a probabilistic neural network     

Donald A. Singer  Ryoichi Kouda 《Natural Resources Research》1997,6(1):27-32

In order to determine whether it is desirable to quantify mineral-deposit models further, a test of the ability of a probabilistic neural network to classify deposits into types based on mineralogy was conducted. Presence or absence of ore and alteration mineralogy in well-typed deposits were used to train the network. To reduce the number of minerals considered, the analyzed data were restricted to minerals present in at least 20% of at least one deposit type. An advantage of this restriction is that single or rare occurrences of minerals did not dominate the results. Probabilistic neural networks can provide mathematically sound confidence measures based on Bayes theorem and are relatively insensitive to outliers. Founded on Parzen density estimation, they require no assumptions about distributions of random variables used for classification, even handling multimodal distributions. They train quickly and work as well as, or better than, multiple-layer feedforward networks. Tests were performed with a probabilistic neural network employing a Gaussian kernel and separate sigma weights for each class and each variable. The training set was reduced to the presence or absence of 58 reported minerals in eight deposit types. The training set included: 49 Cyprus massive sulfide deposits; 200 kuroko massive sulfide deposits; 59 Comstock epithermal vein gold districts; 17 quartzalunite epithermal gold deposits; 25 Creede epithermal gold deposits; 28 sedimentary-exhalative zinc-lead deposits; 28 Sado epithermal vein gold deposits; and 100 porphyry copper deposits. The most common training problem was the error of classifying about 27% of Cyprus-type deposits in the training set as kuroko. In independent tests with deposits not used in the training set, 88% of 224 kuroko massive sulfide deposits were classed correctly, 92% of 25 porphyry copper deposits, 78% of 9 Comstock epithermal gold-silver districts, and 83% of six quartzalunite epithermal gold deposits were classed correctly. Across all deposit types, 88% of deposits in the validation dataset were correctly classed. Misclassifications were most common if a deposit was characterized by only a few minerals, e.g., pyrite, chalcopyrite,and sphalerite. The success rate jumped to 98% correctly classed deposits when just two rock types were added. Such a high success rate of the probabilistic neural network suggests that not only should this preliminary test be expanded to include other deposit types, but that other deposit features should be added  相似文献   

Sources of uncertainty in liquefaction triggering procedures     

John T. Christian  Gregory B. Baecher 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2016,10(4):242-250

Uncertainties in observed data and in processing field and laboratory tests are major concerns. Assigning reasonable coefficients of variation to the parameters in the conventional analyses indicates that a site with deterministic factors of safety of 1.5 can actually have liquefaction triggering probability above 20%. About a third of the variance comes from uncertainty in the load, which is independent of the resistance. Researchers have traditionally presented the results of case studies in the form of charts showing instances in which liquefaction did and did not occur and have developed relations to separate the two. Although the original researchers developed the separations informally, recent work has applied statistical methods. These give the sampling distributions of the observed data rather than the probability of triggering given the data. Researchers have addressed this issue using Bayesian methods, adopting non-informative priors. Published curves of liquefaction probabilities can be interpreted as likelihood ratios. Other independent work demonstrates that geological, meteorological, and historical data can be used to develop prior probabilities, so it may not be necessary to assume a non-informative prior. The actual prior can then be combined with the likelihood ratios to provide rational probabilities of liquefaction. We recommend that researchers publish their likelihood ratios and allow engineers faced with particular sites to use those to update their own priors.  相似文献   

EnKF协方差膨胀算法对雷达资料同化的影响研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

高士博  闵锦忠  黄丹莲 《气象科学》2016,36(3):319-328

基于集合卡尔曼滤波(EnKF)方法同化模拟雷达径向风和回波,引入具有时空自适应理论优势的贝叶斯膨胀算法,通过与常数膨胀算法的对比,分析了两种协方差膨胀算法对EnKF同化效果的影响。结果表明:在对流区域的北侧,由贝叶斯膨胀算法分析得到的回波在水平和垂直结构上均增强;在对流区域,由贝叶斯膨胀算法分析得到的各变量的集合离散度增大,均方根误差减小,水平和垂直速度增大,冷池强度减弱;模拟还发现贝叶斯膨胀算法提高了强对流系统的模拟效果,回波强度增强,阵风锋区内水平和垂直风速增大。这表明贝叶斯膨胀算法有效地改进了基于常数膨胀算法的EnKF同化雷达资料的效果。  相似文献   

时移地震资料贝叶斯AVO波形反演   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

王守东  王波 《地球物理学报》2012,55(7):2422-2431

针对时移地震差异数据,给出了一种基于贝叶斯理论的AVO波形反演方法.该方法可以利用时移地震差异数据同时反演出纵波阻抗、横波阻抗和密度的变化.利用时移地震资料进行反演,由于采集和处理过程中存在一定的差异,不同年份地震资料在非注采过程影响区域也会存在一定的变化,而该变化会导致反演结果在非注采区域有较大的变化.针对这一问题,本文采用贝叶斯理论框架,将待求的纵横波阻抗、密度变化的先验信息和包含在地震数据中的信息结合起来,对于纵横波阻抗和密度变化,假设其服从Gauss分布,并以时移地震分别反演的结果作为其期望,同时,为了更好地表征储层属性变化,提高分辨率和抑制非注采区域弹性参数的变化,假设弹性参数变化的导数服从改进的Cauchy分布.数值模拟试验和实际资料处理结果皆表明,本文提出的反演方法能够有效地抑制假象,突出储层性质的变化,得到高分辨率的弹性参数变化信息,为研究储层属性的变化和优化开采方案提供更多的有效的信息.  相似文献   

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邓兴升  陈石桥  丁美青 《大地测量与地球动力学》2013,33(2):45-48

?о????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????  相似文献   

基于Bayes估计的稀疏数据CT重建算法研究     

谢丹艳  井西利  任国朝 《CT理论与应用研究》2008,17(4):8-14

通过对稀疏放射数据CT重建问题的分析,提出用Bayes方法重建图像。首先以医疗解剖学为基础,将目标物体的先验信息转化为定量的先验概率密度,即结构先验,将测量所得数据作为似然函数,二者结合得到后验概率密度,通过对其抽样,将均值估算得到期望值作为重建结果。仿真实验证明,与传统CT重建方法相比,Bayes重建放射数据少,重建时间短,图像质量好,抗噪声能力强。  相似文献   

A new supervised classifier exploiting spectral-spatial information in the Bayesian framework     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2020

Conventional machine learning methods are often unable to achieve high degrees of accuracy when only spectral data are involved in the classification process. The main reason of that inaccuracy can be brought back to the omission of the spatial information in the classification. The present paper suggests a way to combine effectively the spectral and the spatial information and improve the classification’s accuracy. In practice, a Bayesian two-stage methodology is proposed embodying two enhancements: i) a geostatistical non-parametric classification approach, the universal indicator kriging and ii) the smooth multivariate kernel method. The former provides an informative prior, while the latter overcomes the assumption (often not true) of independence of the spectral data. The case study reports an application to land-cover classification in a study area located in the Apulia region (Southern Italy). The methodology performance in terms of overall accuracy was compared with five state-of-the-art methods, i.e. naïve Bayes, Random Forest, artificial neural networks, support vector machines and decision trees. It is shown that the proposed methodology outperforms all the compared methods and that even a severe reduction of the training set does not affect seriously the average accuracy of the presented method.  相似文献   

基于改进反射系数近似方程的纵横波阻抗同步反演          下载免费PDF全文

付欣  张峰  李向阳  钱忠平  陈海峰  梅璐璐 《地球物理学报》2019,62(1):276-288

基于地震波反射系数近似公式的叠前反演是油气勘探的重要工具.本文在已有研究的基础上,推导了一个改进的射线参数域地震纵波反射系数近似方程.该方程建立了地震纵波反射系数与纵波阻抗和横波阻抗的非线性关系,在中、小角度的范围内较现有的反射系数线性近似公式精度更高.另外,由于该方程仅包含纵波和横波阻抗反射系数项,因此基于新方程的反演能够有效地降低同步反演纵波速度、横波速度、密度三个参数的不适定性.在此基础上,结合广义线性反演法(GLI)理论和贝叶斯理论,相应地发展了一种叠前地震同步反演方法.模型测试和实际资料的应用表明,基于新方程的反演方法能够利用有限角度(偏移距)的数据稳定地反演纵波和横波阻抗,由于在反演过程中,不需要假设纵横波速度为常数,因此该方法还能有效地提高反演结果的精度.  相似文献   

华北水氡异常与地震关系的Bayes判别分析     

丁香  王晓青 《华北地震科学》2000,18(3):59-65

选取华北地区１９９０￣１９９８年８月较完整的水氡观测资料,笔者采用ｘ＾２统计检验法识别前兆异常,利用笔者建立的Ｂａｙｅｓ判别分析方法,对该地区水氡异常与中强震活动性的关系进行了内符检验和外推预测。在风险代价比Ｋｄｎ取４的情况下,内符检验的有震报准率ｃ为０．７１,预报占时率ｂ为０．３３,Ｒ值可达０．３８;外推有震报效率ｃ为０．５,时空占有率０．０５,Ｒ值为０．４５,能够正确预测１９９８年１月１０日张  相似文献   

Examining Risk in Mineral Exploration   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Singer  Donald A.  Kouda  Ryoichi 《Natural Resources Research》1999,8(2):111-122

Successful mineral exploration strategy requires identification of some of the risk sources and considering them in the decision-making process so that controllable risk can be reduced. Risk is defined as chance of failure or loss. Exploration is an economic activity involving risk and uncertainty, so risk also must be defined in an economic context. Risk reduction can be addressed in three fundamental ways: (1) increasing the number of examinations; (2) increasing success probabilities; and (3) changing success probabilities per test by learning. These provide the framework for examining exploration risk. First, the number of prospects examined is increased, such as by joint venturing, thereby reducing chance of gambler's ruin. Second, success probability is increased by exploring for deposit types more likely to be economic, such as those with a high proportion of world-class deposits. For example, in looking for 100+ ton (>3 million oz) Au deposits, porphyry Cu-Au, or epithermal quartz alunite Au types require examining fewer deposits than Comstock epithermal vein and most other deposit types. For porphyry copper exploration, a strong positive relationship between area of sulfide minerals and deposits' contained Cu can be used to reduce exploration risk by only examining large sulfide systems. In some situations, success probabilities can be increased by examining certain geologic environments. Only 8% of kuroko massive sulfide deposits are world class, but success chances can be increased to about 15% by looking in settings containing sediments and rhyolitic rocks. It is possible to reduce risk of loss during mining by sequentially developing and expanding a mine—thus reducing capital exposed at early stages and reducing present value of risked capital. Because this strategy is easier to apply in some deposit types than in others, the strategy can affect deposit types sought. Third, risk is reduced by using prior information and by changing the independence of trials assumption, that is, by learning. Bayes' formula is used to change the probability of existence of the deposit sought on the basis of successive exploration stages. Perhaps the most important way to reduce exploration risk is to employ personnel with the appropriate experience and yet who are learning.  相似文献