变形分析的Bayes估计与检验     

寇新建 《大地测量与地球动力学》1994,(3)

由于观测条件的变化，观测值方差将产生随机波动。本文根据Ｂａｙｅｓ估计理论，推导了线性模型待估参数的分布函数及观测值方差估计公式，并将其用于位移检验。计算结果表明，在同样的置信度下，本方法更符合实际。文中还对参数估值的统计性质进行了讨论。  相似文献   

Appraisal of Seismic Hazard Parameters for the Seismic Regions of the East Circum-Pacific Belt Inferred from a Bayesian Approach     

Tsapanos  Theodoros M. 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(1):59-78

The assessment of seismic hazard parameters is important in the seismically active regions. A straightforward approach is considered for the statistical estimation of the maximum values of earthquake hazard parameters. The Bayesian estimator is suggested and emphasis is given to the evaluation of the maximum possible M_max (regional) magnitude in a future time interval T. This approach allows the uncertainty of earthquake magnitude to be accounted for. Seismic hazard parameters like the -value which is the slope of the magnitude-frequency law (where, b = log_e) and the intensity (rate) of seismic activity and their uncertainties are also estimated. The quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitude on a given time interval [0, T] are evaluated, as well. Two main assumptions are adopted for the method:(1) earthquake occurrence is Poissonian and(2) the magnitude-frequency law is of Gutenberg-Richter type with a cutoff maximum value of magnitude. It is needless to say the seismic catalog used must have a large number of events. This requirement leads to the estimation of the parameters referred to some of the most seismically active regions of the world, e.g., Chile, Peru-Equador-South Colombia,Central America and Mexico, which belong to the east part of the circum-Pacific belt.  相似文献   

Bayes判别分析法与地震短临预测   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

王晓青  石绍先  丁香 《地震》1999,19(1):33-40

建立了一套完整的Bayes判别分析方法,并提出了明确的衡量综合预测结果所冒风险大小的风险代价比Kdn该方法可用于不同时间尺度的地震综合预测。选取云南地区1994～1996年的水氡观测资料,采用X2统计检验法识别前兆异常,利用Bayes判别分析方法对云南地区的强震活动性进行了内符检验和外推预测。在风险代价比Kdn取4的情况下,内符检验的R值可达0．54,外推时空占有率0．07,获得了满意的效果。  相似文献   

生活垃圾卫生填埋地质环境(LFGE)效应的系统分析方法研究——以上海浦东新区为例     

陈岳 《地质灾害与环境保护》1999,(Z1)

在系统分析总结国内外本领域的研究发展现状的基础上,以上海浦东新区城市生活垃圾卫生填埋处理为研究背景,首次提出ＬＦＧＥ效应系统分析方法的完整理论和应用体系,体系主要包括：ＬＦＧＥ效应的主控因素特征分析;在垃圾淋滤试验、有关土的工程性能试验和反映运移转化特征的土柱试验基础上的作用机制研究;具单元、组合、整体模拟及压实效应模拟功能的模拟计算研究;在不确定性条件存在下,随机模拟研究和以贝叶斯决策分析理论为基础的ＬＦＧＥ效应决策分析技术经济转换研究  相似文献   

A Bayes filter in Friedland form for INS/GPS vector gravimetry     

B. Schaffrin  J. H. Kwon 《Geophysical Journal International》2002,149(1):64-75

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钢桁梁桥基于模型修正方法的损伤程度识别研究     

淳庆  邱洪兴 《地震工程与工程振动》2005,25(2):114-118

在钢桁梁桥模型损伤定位的基础上,采用模型修正方法对其损伤程度进行识别,对其中几个关键问题进行了研究分析,得出了一些有用的结论,可作为实际桥梁健康监测的参考依据。  相似文献   

知识不确定条件下的海外保障基地自然风险情景模拟评估          下载免费PDF全文

姜德良  张韧  葛珊珊 《海洋通报》2017,36(5):504-537

针对海外保障基地面临的自然风险,在风险辨识基础上,构建了风险评价指标体系和海外保障基地自然风险的贝叶斯网络评估模型,并进行了情景模拟下的量化实验评估。针对目前贝叶斯网络评估过程中的群决策和决策偏好问题,引入了犹豫层次分析思想来优化计算指标风险隶属度,改进了评估过程中的客观性和适用性。  相似文献   

A new Likelihood Ratio for supervised classification of fully polarimetric SAR data: An application for sea ice type mapping     

《ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing》2013

One of the potential applications of polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data is the classification of land cover, such as forest canopies, vegetation, sea ice types, and urban areas. In contrast to single or dual polarized SAR systems, full polarimetric SAR systems provide more information about the physical and geometrical properties of the imaged area. This paper proposes a new Bayes risk function which can be minimized to obtain a Likelihood Ratio (LR) for the supervised classification of polarimetric SAR data. The derived Bayes risk function is based on the complex Wishart distribution. Furthermore, a new spatial criterion is incorporated with the LR classification process to produce more homogeneous classes. The application for Arctic sea ice mapping shows that the LR and the proposed spatial criterion are able to provide promising classification results. Comparison with classification results based on the Wishart classifier, the Wishart Likelihood Ratio Test Statistic (WLRTS) proposed by Conradsen et al. (2003) and the Expectation Maximization with Probabilistic Label Relaxation (EMPLR) algorithm are presented. High overall classification accuracy of selected study areas which reaches 97.8% using the LR is obtained. Combining the derived spatial criterion with the LR can improve the overall classification accuracy to reach 99.9%. In this study, fully polarimetric C-band RADARSAT-2 data collected over Franklin Bay, Canadian Arctic, is used.  相似文献   

DÉTERMINATION DU DÉBIT DES PUITS INCOMPLETS DE NAPPES LIBRES FONCÉS EN TERRAIN ISOTROPE ET ANISOTROPE     

D. LE GOURIÉRÈS 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):301-313

ABSTRACT

In this paper, the author relies on Darcy's law and on an hypothesis formulated from experimental considerations to establish a semi-empirical formula for the calculation of the discharge of partially penetrating wells of free aquifer sunk in isotropic soils.

This relatively simple relation applied to 27 cases studied under an experimental design or numerical computations, reveals itself to have an unexpected accuracy.

Starting from previous formula, the author establishes another one for partially penetrating wells bored in anisotropic soils.  相似文献   

基于Bayes理论的星间链路自主定轨误差评估方法     

张敏  闻德保  黄文德 《大地测量与地球动力学》2016,36(5):411

针对导航星座自主运行期间因缺乏外部基准而导致自主定轨结果不能得到有效评估的问题,提出一种基于Bayes理论的自主定轨结果评估方法。一方面充分考虑定轨误差的先验统计特性,以提供先验位置基准;另一方面以卡尔曼滤波中定轨协方差的迹作为定轨URE的表征量,解决了自主定轨中对定轨误差没有观测信息的问题。利用自主定轨的仿真数据对该方法进行验证,结果表明,对于单颗卫星,在24 d内,由该方法得到的URE估计误差不超过±0.5 m,验证了该方法的可行性。  相似文献