Population,urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jing  Cheng  Tao  Hui  Jiang  Tong  Wang  Yanjun  Zhai  Jianqing  Cao  Lige  Su  Buda 《地理学报(英文版)》2020,30(1):68-84

The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60% of the world's population and half of the global economy. Future changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic growth, industrial structure and resource allocation. In this study, the proportion of the urban population to the total population and the gross domestic product were used to represent the levels of urbanization and economic development, respectively. The population, urbanization and economic levels of the Belt and Road countries for 2020–2050 were projected under the framework of the IPCC's shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), and the following conclusions are drawn.(1) The population, urbanization and economic levels in the Belt and Road region will likely increase under all five pathways. The population will increase by 2%–8%/10 a during 2020–2050 and reach 5.0–6.0 billion in 2050. Meanwhile, the urbanization rate will increase by 1.4%–7.5%/10 a and reach 49%–75%. The GDP will increase by 17%–34%/10 a and reach 134–243 trillion USD.(2) Large differences will appear under different scenarios. The SSP1 and SSP5 pathways demonstrate relatively high urbanization and economic levels, but the population size is comparatively smaller; SSP3 shows the opposite trend. Meanwhile, the economy develops slowly under SSP4, but it has a relatively high urbanization level, while SSP2 exhibits an intermediate trend.(3) In 2050, the population will increase relative to 2016 in most countries, and population size in the fastest growing country in Central Asia and the Middle East countries will be more than double. Urbanization will develop rapidly in South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, and will increase by more than 150% in the fastest growing countries. The economy will grow fastest in South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia, and increase by more than 10 times in some counties with rapid economic development.  相似文献   

干旱荒漠区土地利用方式快速转变对土壤入渗性能的影响   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3  

张润霞  赵学勇  李晶  吕文强  柴媛媛  岳红琴 《中国沙漠》2020,40(4):146-153

研究不同土地利用类型下土壤入渗及其影响因素，有助于城市土地利用管理及径流调节。以快速城市化的兰州新区6种土地利用类型为例，利用圆盘入渗仪，对土壤水分入渗过程进行了实地测量，并利用主成分分析对影响因素进行研究。结果表明：城市化过程中土地利用变化使土壤砂粒和容重增加，总孔隙度和饱和含水量降低；待建地和人工林地的土壤入渗参数值均低于其他土地利用类型。土壤入渗率与有机质含量、总孔隙度、饱和含水量、粉粒含量正相关，与容重和砂粒、黏粒含量负相关。城市化过程中土地利用类型向待建地的转变改变了土壤理化性质及土壤水分入渗能力。  相似文献   

Influencing factors for formation of urban and rural spatial structure in metropolis fringe area—Taking Shuangliu County of Chengdu in China as a case   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Kaiyong Wang  Xiaolu Gao  Tian Chen 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2008,18(3):224-234

With rapid urbanization process, the pace of urban sprawl has been quickened and most metropolises have experienced expansions in leaps and bounds in suburbanization, which has greatly changed the urban and rural spatial structure of the metropolis fringe area. In this paper, Shuangliu County is taken as a case, since it is a typical fringe area of Chengdu Metropolis. Based on Landsat TM images of Chengdu City and Shuangliu County obtained in 1985, 2000 and 2004, characteristics of urban and rural spatial structure in Shuangliu County were analyzed, such as core-periphery spatial structure and some obvious integration trends. Then the influencing factors for the formation of urban and rural spatial structure were identified, including some natural, social, economic and political factors. According to the discussion of this paper, Shuangliu County is undergoing a key transition and reform period. Its formation of urban and rural spatial structure was affected not only by such common factors as the location, natural background, industrial transition, migration, etc., but also by some unique factors such as city planning and policy guidance, which played an important role in accelerating its uneven spatial structure. The understanding of the role of the influencing factors would be useful for carrying out spatial management and development planning of metropolis fringe area.  相似文献   

Innovation-based urbanization: Evidence from 270 cities at the prefecture level or above in China     

Lyu  Lachang  Sun  Feixiang  Huang  Ru 《地理学报(英文版)》2019,29(8):1283-1299

Journal of Geographical Sciences - With the rapid development of knowledge economy, a number of important shifts are emerging in urbanization pattern across the world. Traditional urbanization...  相似文献   

海南省新型城镇化发展模式及驱动力分析——以琼海市为例   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

程叶青  翟梦潇  王莹  张金萍 《地理科学》2019,39(12):1902-1909

在中国社会经济转型过程中,快速的城镇化导致城镇人口剧增、基础服务设施滞后、城乡差距拉大等系列问题,新型城镇化战略为解决这些问题提供新的思路和方向,为建设可持续城市和城乡一体化发展提供美好蓝图。以城镇化和城乡统筹发展等理论为指导,分析了海南省琼海市城镇化建设过程及成效,并以潭门镇、博鳌镇和龙寿洋国家农业公园为案例,提炼出3种不同类型区域的新型城镇化发展模式,并分析其特征及驱动力,为海南省其他类似地区新型城镇化建设提供借鉴。  相似文献   

基于空间计量模型的中国城市化发展与城市空气质量关系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

姜磊  周海峰  柏玲 《热带地理》2019,39(3):461-471

采用中国289个地级及以上城市2016年的空气质量指数（AQI）和夜间灯光数据，运用空间滞后模型，从空间溢出效应视角出发探究了城市化发展与空气质量之间的定量关系。从空间滞后模型的估计结果来看，城市空气污染存在显著的空间溢出效应，周边地区空气质量的下降会导致本地空气污染情况加重。在城市发展过程中，城市经济发展水平的提高，引致的城市建设用地的扩张使得空气质量不断恶化；政府管制力的加强对空气污染的治理起到了促进作用，而居民环保意识和城市技术创新水平的提高有利于空气质量的改善。此外，PM2.5质量浓度的上升导致空气质量恶化。公路货运量在统计上与空气质量的关系不显著。从研究结果来看，协调城市发展与空气质量的关系以及加强空气污染防治的联防联控机制，是未来空气污染治理工作的重点。  相似文献   

Urban three-dimensional expansion and its driving forces —A case study of Shanghai, China   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

Longyu Shi  Guofan Shao  Shenghui Cui  Xuanqi Li  Tao Lin  Kai Yin  Jingzhu Zhao 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2009,19(4):291-298

Urban expansion is a phenomenon of urban space increase, and an important measuring index of the process of urbanization. Taking Shanghai as an example, the changes of urban average height and built-up area were studied to represent city’s vertical and horizontal increases respectively, and statistical methods were used to analyze the driving forces of urban expansion. The research drew following conclusions: 1) The urban expansion process of Shanghai from 1985 to 2006 had a clear periodic feature, and could be divided into three stages: vertical expansion in dominance, coordinated vertical and horizontal expansion, and horizontal expansion in dominance. 2) The average height and quantity of buildings in core city were significantly bigger than those in suburbs, but the changing speed of the latter was faster. And 3) urbanization process was the major driving force for the city’s horizontal expansion, while industrial structure improvement was the key driving factor for the vertical expansion. Those two driving forces were simultaneously affected by city’s political factors.  相似文献   

基于2030年可持续发展目标的吉林省城镇化可持续发展评价     

马延吉  艾小平 《地理科学》2019,39(3):487-495

结合联合国2030年可持续发展目标（SDGs）构建城镇化可持续发展评价指标体系,从省内、外两个角度研究吉林省城镇化可持续发展状况。结果表明：吉林省城镇化可持续发展水平波动上升,发展趋势良好,大致可分为3个阶段;研究期内各子系统可持续发展水平均呈上升趋势,其中社会子系统上升幅度最大,经济子系统上升幅度最小。城镇化可持续发展水平空间格局呈“核心-边缘”结构,即长春市水平高、其它地区水平低;经济、社会、资源和环境子系统可持续发展水平总体上表现为“中东部高,西部低”。研究期内吉林省城镇化可持续发展水平低于黑龙江省,2015年后高于辽宁省;相较辽黑两省,吉林省社会子系统可持续发展水平较低。  相似文献   

2003～2015年中国城市劳动力技能互补、收入水平与人口城镇化     

杜群阳  俞航东 《地理科学》2019,39(4):525-532

基于2003~2015年中国256个地级市面板数据,对城市中高低技能劳动力耦合协调度进行衡量,并就扩大低技能劳动力规模对城市收入水平的影响进行了分析。主要结论为：① 过去10 a间,中国市级层面的高低技能劳动力耦合协调度总体上升,但上升幅度存在显著的区域间差异;② 七大国土区域内部的高低技能劳动力耦合协调度差异不断扩大,表明城市间高低技能劳动力流动正在加速;③ SLM和SEM模型均表明,地市级层面的低技能劳动力比重、城市收入水平和城市规模三者正相关,说明城市经济规模越大,扩大其低技能劳动力比重,越有助于提升城市总体收入水平。  相似文献   

新型城镇化的人地耦合异速增长分析方法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

洪建智  郭碧云  付迎春  聂欢 《地球信息科学学报》2020,22(5):1049-1062

在新型城镇化背景下的城市人口规模与用地面积变化具有复杂性,研究两种要素城镇化水平的相对增长关系,有助于探索人地耦合发展的协同态势及变化动因。本文选取广州市2000—2015年的Landsat时序影像与2000、2010和2015年的人口普查与年鉴数据,在街道（乡镇）尺度上计算人口土地城镇化耦合指数识别4种耦合类型,并在此基础上提出年均增长率异速关系拟合方法。研究结果表明：① 2000—2015年广州市街道（乡镇）人口和土地城镇化呈现明显的圈层结构（核心、内、外圈层）特征,4种人地耦合类型的异速增长分别呈现正异速、负异速、负幂律3种形式,证明人地耦合分类的异速增长建模方法有助于分析人地城镇化的动态演化过程;② 基于人地耦合指数的异速标度分析表明,核心圈层—内圈层—外圈层结构上分别形成了高度集约—集约—相对粗放式扩张的发展格局,结合城市更新改造的空间分析,说明这一特色新型城镇化模式在广州具有一定成效,已初步形成了核心圈层与内圈层协同发展的态势,但需要注意防控外圈层的粗放型增长。研究结果可为新型城镇化理论内涵的认知探索和广州市案例的实证研究提供支持。  相似文献