考虑预报偏差的迭代式集合卡尔曼滤波在地下水水流数据同化中的应用          下载免费PDF全文

杨运  吴吉春  骆乾坤  钱家忠 《水文地质工程地质》2022,49(6):13-23

集合卡尔曼滤波（Ensemble Kalman Filter,EnKF）方法已广泛应用于地下水水流和污染物运移模拟相关问题的求解。但前人研究多建立在同化系统预报模型是准确的基础上,忽视了模型概化的不确定性。当模型概化不准确时,将导致预报偏差,可能带来错误的系统估计。因此,文章提出考虑模型预报偏差的迭代式集合卡尔曼滤波（Bias aware Ensemble Kalman Filter with Confirming Option,Bias-CEnKF）方法。以地下水水流数据同化为例,研究模型概化存在不确定条件下,边界条件、初始条件、源汇项概化不准确时新方法的有效性。结果表明,当预报模型概化不准确时,使用标准EnKF方法进行数据同化,可能会导致滤波发散,造成同化失败。Bias-CEnKF方法不仅保留了较好的同化性能,同时减小了参数、变量、偏差项非线性关系带来的不一致性。针对文章中4种情景,Bias-CEnKF同化获得的含水层渗透系数场以及水头场均接近真实场,且预报结果可靠。本研究进一步提升了模型概化不确定时EnKF方法的适用性,为实际野外复杂条件下地下水水流数据同化问题提供了可靠的方法。  相似文献   

导航卫星天线相位中心误差标定方法研究现状及发展趋势   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘伟平  郝金明  邓科 《测绘通报》2018,(3):1-8

卫星天线相位中心误差是影响GNSS高精度定位定轨的重要误差源,实用中需要对其精确标定。随着北斗卫星导航系统的建设发展,如何对卫星天线相位中心误差进行更为精确的标定应引起人们的重视。为此,本文首先简要介绍了各卫星导航系统的卫星天线情况,而后系统总结了导航卫星天线相位中心误差标定方法的发展历程和研究现状,指出了未来卫星天线相位中心误差标定方法的发展趋势,相关研究成果对我国北斗卫星天线相位中心误差的标定方法研究具有参考意义。  相似文献   

多GNSS系统精密定轨ISB/IFB估计及特性分析          下载免费PDF全文

党亚民  张龙平  陈俊勇 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2018,43(12):2079

多全球导航卫星系统（Global Navigation Satellite System,GNSS）系统联合精密定轨需要考虑系统间及频率间偏差的影响。推导了多GNSS定轨系统间偏差（inter system bias,ISB）/频率间偏差（inter frequency bias,IFB）解算模型,以GPS系统硬件延迟为基准,给出了一种消除ISB/IFB秩亏的约束方法。试验数据结果表明,各系统ISB/IFB均表现出良好的稳定性及同一系统各卫星时间序列的一致性,BDS ISB的标准差为0.36 ns,Galileo ISB的标准差为0.18 ns,GLONASS IFB的标准差为0.51 ns;在接收机类型相同的情况下,不同跟踪站的ISB比较接近,但仍可达到ns级差异;GLONASS IFB在同一跟踪站相同频道号的卫星及不同跟踪站相同频道号卫星均表现出了良好的一致性。  相似文献   

联合多代测高数据建立中国海域重力异常模型     

邓凯亮  暴景阳  刘雁春  章传银  许军 《测绘科学》2009,34(1)

本文联合T/P数据、T/P新轨道数据、ERS数据、GFO数据、GeosatGM数据和ERS-1/168数据,用测高卫星记录点的位置信息直接计算沿轨大地水准面的方向导数,结合测线轨迹方向的方位角在交叉点处推求垂线偏差,然后利用逆Vening-Meinesz公式计算了中国近海(0o～41oN,105o～132oN)2′×2′格网分辨率的海域重力异常模型。将其与CLS_SHOW99重力异常模型比较,统计结果表示与该模型差异的RMS为8.15mgal,在剔除差值大于20mgal的点(剔除3.3%)以后,RMS为4.72mgal;与某海区船测重力异常比较的RMS为8.91mgal。  相似文献   

Introduction to Excursion A2     

《《幕》》2007,30(4):295-296

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Preliminary Studies on Predicting the Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature through Combined Statistical Methods and Dynamic ENSO Prediction          下载免费PDF全文

WANG Li-Wei  ZHENG Fei  ZHU Jiang 《大气和海洋科学快报》2013,6(1):52-59

The sea surface temperature(SST) in the Indian Ocean affects the regional climate over the Asian continent mostly through a modulation of the monsoon system.It is still difficult to provide an a priori indication of the seasonal variability over the Indian Ocean.It is widely recognized that the warm and cold events of SST over the tropical Indian Ocean are strongly linked to those of the equatorial eastern Pacific.In this study,a statistical prediction model has been developed to predict the monthly SST over the tropical Indian Ocean.This model is a linear regression model based on the lag relationship between the SST over the tropical Indian Ocean and the Ni o3.4(5°S-5°N,170°W-120°W) SST Index.The predictor(i.e.,Ni o3.4 SST Index) has been operationally predicted by a large size ensemble El Ni o and the Southern Oscillation(ENSO) forecast system with coupled data assimilation(Leefs_CDA),which achieves a high predictive skill of up to a 24-month lead time for the equatorial eastern Pacific SST.As a result,the prediction skill of the present statistical model over the tropical Indian Ocean is better than that of persistence prediction for January 1982 through December 2009.  相似文献   

基于FY-3C微波辐射成像仪海表温度产品的偏差订正方法研究     

廖志宏  徐宾  张雷  师春香  周自江 《气象学报》2020,78(5):840-852

提出一种针对FY-3C搭载的微波辐射成像仪（MWRI）海表温度产品的分段回归偏差订正方法,该方法通过引进气候态海表温度数据,建立与关联实测海表温度相匹配的回归模型,并通过对模型中关联变量的误差分析,选择最优样本进行分段回归,以实现对海表温度数据的重新估计。通过对MWRI海表温度数据的偏差订正试验表明,采用分段回归方法获得的订正结果无论在误差指标的空间分布还是时间序列上,都要明显优于采用传统概率密度函数偏差订正方法的结果。其中,采用概率密度函数方法订正后的海表温度产品误差标准差和均方根误差从订正前的0.9—1.0℃,减小到0.8℃左右,而采用分段回归方法获得相应的订正误差仅为0.6℃左右,订正效果有明显改善。   相似文献   

An Interdecad l Change of Summer Atmospheric Circulation over Asian Mid-High Latitudes and Associated Effects     

周长艳  李笛  任倩  齐冬梅 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2020,26(3):363-376

The atmospheric circulation over the mid-high latitudes in Asia has an important influence on regional climate, yet its long-term variation has not been fully explored. The main task of this study is to reveal the interdecadal variation features of summer atmospheric circulation over Asian mid-high latitudes in recent decades. The results show that the atmospheric circulation over mid-high latitudes of Asia has stronger interdecadal fluctuations than that over low latitudes and one significant change center appears near Lake Baikal. It is found that the atmospheric circulation near Lake Baikal has a significant interdecadal change around 1996 and a deep anomalous anticyclonic circulation has been controlling this region since then, which contributes to the significant increase in the surface temperature near Lake Baikal since 1997 and makes the region a remarkable warming center in Asia in recent 40 years. During 1997-2015, the pattern of less precipitation in the north and more precipitation in the south of east China is closely related to the anomalous anticyclonic circulation near Lake Baikal. Especially, this anomalous circulation near Lake Baikal has been found to contribute to the obvious interdecadal decrease of the precipitation in northeast China and north China near 1997. The sea surface temperature (SST) of northwestern Atlantic is an important influence factor to the interdecadal change in the atmospheric circulation near Lake Baikal around 1996.  相似文献   

探空温度偏差订正技术调研报告     

李庆雷  陈哲  廖捷  周自江 《气象科学进展》2020,10(5)

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附有国际参考电离层约束的全球电离层模型     

王成  王解先  段兵兵 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2014,(11)

提出利用国际参考电离层附加虚拟观测值对总电子含量值为负数的地区、赤道异常区域和南半球区域电离层进行约束,在日固地磁参考系下采用15阶次的球谐展开建立全球电离层模型,解算得单位权中误差约为1.6TECU,残差绝对值小于3TECU的比例达90%以上,且全球电离层图与IGS电离层工作组的电离层产品精度相当,偏差RMS约为3.7TECU,卫星差分码偏差与欧洲定轨中心相比优于0.1ns,与IGS相比优于0.2ns,接收机差分码偏差与欧洲定轨中心相比优于1ns(大部分优于0.5ns),与IGS相比优于1.5ns。实验结果表明,附有国际参考电离层约束的全球电离层模型确保了全球各个地区的电离层总电子含量为正值,且有效提高了全球电离层模型在赤道异常区域、海洋地区和南半球的精度。  相似文献