Holocene environments and climate in the Mongolian Altai reconstructed from the Hoton-Nur pollen and diatom records: a step towards better understanding climate dynamics in Central Asia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Natalia Rudaya  Pavel Tarasov  Nadezhda Dorofeyuk  Nadia Solovieva  Ivan Kalugin  Andrei Andreev  Andrei Daryin  Bernhard Diekmann  Frank Riedel  Narantsetseg Tserendash  Mayke Wagner 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(5-6):540-554

This study presents the results of the palynological and diatom analyses of the sediment core recovered in Hoton-Nur Lake (48°37′18″N, 88°20′45″E, 2083 m) in 2004. Quantitative reconstruction of the Holocene vegetation and climate dynamics in the semiarid Mongolian Altai suggests that boreal woodland replaced the primarily open landscape of northwestern Mongolia at about 10 kyr BP (1 kyr = 1000 cal yr) in response to a noticeable increase in precipitation from 200–250 mm/yr to 450–550 mm/yr. A decline of the forest vegetation and a return to a predominance of open vegetation types occurred after 5 kyr BP when precipitation sums decreased to 250–300 mm/yr. Prior to 11.5 kyr BP diatom concentrations are relatively low and the lake is dominated by planktonic Cyclotella and small Fragilariaceae, suggesting the existence of a relatively deep and oligotrophic/mesotrophic lake. The great abundance of Staurosirella pinnata from the beginning of the record until 10.7 kyr BP might imply intensified erosion processes in the catchment and this is fully consistent with the presence of scarce and dry vegetation and the generally arid climate during this period. From about 10.7 kyr BP, more planktonic diatom taxa appeared and increased in abundance, indicating that the lake became more productive as diatom concentration increased. This change correlates well with the development of boreal woodland in the catchment. Decrease in precipitation and changes in the vegetation towards steppe are reflected by the rapid increase in Aulacoseira distans from about 5 kyr BP. The Holocene pollen and diatom records do not indicate soil and vegetation cover disturbances by the anthropogenic activities, implying that the main transformations of the regional vegetation occurred as a result of the natural climate change. Our reconstruction is in agreement with the paleomonsoon records from China, demonstrating an abrupt strengthening of the summer monsoon at 12 kyr BP and an associated increase in precipitation and in lake levels between 11 and 8 kyr BP, followed by the stepwise attenuation of the monsoon circulation and climate aridization towards the modern level. The records from the neighboring areas of Kazakhstan and Russia, situated west and north of Hoton-Nur, demonstrate spatially and temporally different Holocene vegetation and climate histories, indicating that the Altai Mountains as a climate boundary are of pivotal importance for the Holocene environmental and, possibly, habitation history of Central Asia.  相似文献   

Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River Basin: implications of the 2007 IPCC scenarios   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Tazebe Beyene  Dennis P. Lettenmaier  Pavel Kabat 《Climatic change》2010,100(3-4):433-461

We assess the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Nile River basin using a macroscale hydrology model. Model inputs are bias corrected and spatially downscaled 21st Century simulations from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two global emissions scenarios (A2 and B1) archived from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). While all GCMs agree with respect to the direction of 21st Century temperature changes, there is considerable variability in the magnitude, direction, and seasonality of projected precipitation changes. Our simulations show that, averaged over all 11 GCMs, the Nile River is expected to experience increase in streamflow early in the study period (2010–2039), due to generally increased precipitation. Streamflow is expected to decline during mid- (2040–2069) and late (2070–2099) century as a result of both precipitation declines and increased evaporative demand. The predicted multimodel average streamflow at High Aswan Dam (HAD) as a percentage of historical (1950–1999) annual average are 111 (114), 92 (93) and 84 (87) for A2 (B1) global emissions scenarios. Implications of these streamflow changes on the water resources of the Nile River basin were analyzed by quantifying the annual hydropower production and irrigation water release at HAD. The long-term HAD release for irrigation increases early in the century to 106 (109)% of historical, and then decreases to 87 (89) and 86 (84)% of historical in Periods II and III, respectively, for the A2 (B1) global emissions scenarios. Egypt’s hydropower production from HAD will be above the mean annual average historical value of about 10,000 GWH for the early part of 21st century, and thereafter will generally follow the streamflow trend, however with large variability among GCMs. Agricultural water supplies will be negatively impacted, especially in the second half of the century.  相似文献   

Climate benefits of changing diet   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

Elke Stehfest  Lex Bouwman  Detlef P. van Vuuren  Michel G. J. den Elzen  Bas Eickhout  Pavel Kabat 《Climatic change》2009,95(1-2):83-102

Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in the adverse health effects of beef and pork have lead to a revision of meat consumption recommendations. Here, we explored the potential impact of dietary changes on achieving ambitious climate stabilization levels. By using an integrated assessment model, we found a global food transition to less meat, or even a complete switch to plant-based protein food to have a dramatic effect on land use. Up to 2,700 Mha of pasture and 100 Mha of cropland could be abandoned, resulting in a large carbon uptake from regrowing vegetation. Additionally, methane and nitrous oxide emission would be reduced substantially. A global transition to a low meat-diet as recommended for health reasons would reduce the mitigation costs to achieve a 450 ppm CO₂-eq. stabilisation target by about 50% in 2050 compared to the reference case. Dietary changes could therefore not only create substantial benefits for human health and global land use, but can also play an important role in future climate change mitigation policies.  相似文献   

Gravimetric monitoring of the first field‐wide steam injection in a fractured carbonate field in Oman – a feasibility study          下载免费PDF全文

Marcin Glegola  Pavel Ditmar  Femke Vossepoel  Rob Arts  Fahad Al‐Kindy  Roland Klees 《Geophysical Prospecting》2015,63(5):1256-1271

Gas‐Oil Gravity Drainage is to be enhanced by steam injection in a highly fractured, low permeability carbonate field in Oman. Following a successful pilot, field‐wide steam injection is being implemented, first of this type in the world. A dedicated monitoring program has been designed to track changes in the reservoir. Various observations are to be acquired, including, surface deformation, temperature measurements, microseismic, well logs, pressure and saturation measurements to monitor the reservoir. Because significant changes in the reservoir density are expected, time‐lapse gravimetry is also being considered. In this paper we investigate the feasibility of gravimetric monitoring of the thermally enhanced gravity drainage process at the carbonate field in Oman. For this purpose, forward gravity modelling is performed. Based on field groundwater measurements, the estimates of the hydrological signal are considered and it is investigated under what conditions the groundwater influences can be minimized. Using regularized inversion of synthetic gravity data, we analyse the achievable accuracy of heat‐front position estimates. In case of large groundwater variations at the field, the gravity observations can be significantly affected and, consequently, the accuracy of heat‐front monitoring can be deteriorated. We show that, by applying gravity corrections based on local observations of groundwater, the hydrological influences can to a large extent be reduced and the accuracy of estimates can be improved. We conclude that gravimetric monitoring of the heat‐front evolution has a great potential.  相似文献   

Methane fluxes in the southeastern Baltic Sea   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Marina Ulyanova  Vadim Sivkov  Timur Kanapatskij  Pavel Sigalevich  Nikolay Pimenov 《Geo-Marine Letters》2012,32(5-6):535-544

New data from surveys of gas-bearing mud areas in the Gdansk Deep (southeastern Baltic Sea) were collected during four research cruises in 2009–2011. These revealed the presence of seven large pockmarks apart from the three already known, and enabled significant improvement of the existing digital map of gassy mud distribution. Based on geochemical sediment analyses, calculated diffusive methane fluxes from the upper (0–5?cm) seabed layer into near-bottom waters were highest—3.3?mmol/(m²?day)—in pockmark mud, contrasting strongly with the minimum value of 0.004?mmol/(m²?day) observed in typical, background mud. However, fluxes of less than 0.1?mmol/(m²?day) were observed in all sediment types, including pockmarks. In a newer attempt to roughly estimate budgets at a more regional scale, diffusive methane venting amounts to 280?×?10⁶?mmol/day for southeastern Baltic Sea muddy sediments. Elongated pockforms in the southern Gotland Deep, known since the end of the 1980s as pockmarks, had methane concentrations that were similar to those of gassy mud from the Gdansk Basin, and there was no geo-acoustic evidence of considerably increased gas levels.  相似文献   

Spatial and Spectral Representations of the Geoid-to-Quasigeoid Correction     

Robert Tenzer  Christian Hirt  Sten Claessens  Pavel Novák 《Surveys in Geophysics》2015,36(5):627-658

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Kappa and regional attenuation for Vrancea (Romania) earthquakes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Florin Pavel  Radu Vacareanu 《Journal of Seismology》2015,19(3):791-799

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Induction Sounding of the Earth’s Mantle at a New Russian Geophysical Observatory     

John Moilanen  Pavel Yu. Pushkarev 《Acta Geophysica》2015,63(2):385-397

Deep magnetotelluric (MT) sounding data were collected and processed in the western part of the East European Craton (EEC). The MT sounding results correspond well with impedances obtained by magnetovariation (MV) sounding on the new geophysical observatory situated not far from the western border of Russia. Inversion based on combined data of both induction soundings let us evaluate geoelectrical structure of the Earth’s crust and upper and mid-mantle at depths up to 2000 km, taking into account the harmonics of 11-year variations. Results obtained by different authors and methods are compared with similar investigations on the EEC such as international projects CEMES in Central Europe and BEAR in Fennoscandia.  相似文献   

新疆阿吾拉勒西段流纹岩及其对该区岩石圈深部过程的约束     

丁振信  薛春纪  赵晓波  闫永红  亚夏尔·亚力坤  冯博  罗晖  俎波  张祺  代志杰 《地学前缘》2014,21(5):196-210

西天山二叠纪的岩石圈深部过程是备受关注的地球动力学问题,新疆阿吾拉勒西段下二叠统流纹岩提供了理解这个问题的良好机会。阿吾拉勒西段流纹岩发育流纹构造、斑状结构,斑晶主要为条纹长石、斜长石和石英,长英质基质呈雏晶微晶结构。岩石为富硅(66.97%~79.00%)、高钾(2.86%~11.07%)钙碱性、准铝质(A/CNK=0.91~0.99)岩浆系列。流纹岩富集U、Th和K等元素,明显亏损Nb、Ta、Eu、P等元素,显示εNd(t)正值(4.7~5.1)和低的初始锶比值((87Sr/86Sr)i=0.705 1~ 0.705 6),锆石饱和温度为818~909 ℃,幔源物质明显。与高分异I型花岗岩地球化学性质相似,岩浆可能起源于壳幔边界早石炭世新生下地壳的部分熔融。流纹岩锆石U Pb法测年获得(290.9±3.3) Ma和(296.3±3.1) Ma的早二叠世成岩年龄,岩浆的起源可能与北天山洋关闭之后洋壳岩石圈板块尾部断离导致软流圈物质和能量上涌并引起新生下地壳底部重熔等深部过程有关。  相似文献   

天山北坡经济带“组团”点轴城镇空间结构研究     

地力木拉提·吾守尔  杨德刚  张仲伍  唐宏  张月芹 《中国沙漠》2012,32(1):252-257

以1990-2007年天山北坡城镇GDP、土地、人口、交通数据为资料,根据城镇空间分布“最近邻点指数”理论,空间相互作用和分形理论,分析了天山北坡城镇空间分布特征,构建了绿洲城镇相互作用强度判断模型,提出并论证了“组团”点-轴空间结构模式优越性。研究发现:①天山北坡经济带城镇人口规模和经济规模在空间结构呈现3个城镇高密集区,两个城镇稀疏区特征;②传统绿洲城镇空间结构下,城镇接受中心城市辐射差异很大,不利于城镇整体发展;③以“乌鲁木齐都市圈”为点的“组团”点-轴空间结构模式,有利于中心组团城镇对其他城镇的辐射;④以“５组团”为点的点-轴模式有利于组团之间的相互作用,有利于城镇发展;⑤天山北坡经济带向伊犁河谷延伸有利于中心组团城镇对其他组团城镇的辐射。  相似文献