中更新世气候转型与100ka周期研究   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

邬光剑  潘保田  管清玉  高红山 《地球科学进展》2002,17(4):605-612

中更新世气候转型是第四纪气候变化中最重要的特征之一，它是指全球气候的主导周期在中更新世时从41ka转变为100ka，且气候波动的幅度也加大。经典的Milankovitch假说不能完全解释中更新世气候转型的原因以及100ka周期在气候记录中的强烈表现，因为太阳辐射与气候记录之间存在着相当的差异，尤其是二者在变化幅度上不匹配。近年来围绕这一转型过程的时代和原因获得了一些新的进展，主要是针对中更新世气候转型的时间、对气候记录中100ka周期的重新检讨以及非太阳辐射因素在这一转型过程中所起的作用。其它可能的转型原因包括大冰盖、温室气体、地球轨道面倾角、冰盖基底、构造隆升等。  相似文献   

Impact of Analysis-time Tuning on the Performance of the DRP-4DVar Approach     

ZHAO Juan  WANG Bin  LIU Juanjuan 《大气科学进展》2011,28(1):207-216

In this study we extend the dimension-reduced projection-four dimensional variational data assimilation (DRP-4DVar) approach to allow the analysis time to be tunable, so that the intervals between analysis time and observation times can be shortened. Due to the limits of the perfect-model assumption and the tangentlinear hypothesis, the analysis-time tuning is expected to have the potential to further improve analyses and forecasts. Various sensitivity experiments using the Lorenz-96 model are conducted to test the impact of analysistime tuning on the performance of the new approach under perfect and imperfect model scenarios, respectively. Comparing three DRP-4DVar schemes having the analysis time at the start, middle, and end of the assimilation window, respectively, it is found that the scheme with the analysis time in the middle of the window outperforms the others, on the whole. Moreover, the advantage of this scheme is more pronounced when a longer assimilation window is adopted or more observations are assimilated.  相似文献   

Assessing the South African sardine resource: two stocks rather than one?     

CL de Moor  DS Butterworth 《African Journal of Marine Science》2015,37(1):41-51

Sardine Sardinops sagax distributed off the west and south coasts of South Africa have traditionally been assumed to comprise a single well-mixed stock for assessment and management purposes. New research, however, lends weight to the possibility of two stocks in this region. A precautionary management approach thus needs to consider the impact of management decisions on the hypothesised two individual stocks as well as on the resource as a whole. As a first step in this process, Bayesian assessments of South African sardine are presented, which compare results for the traditional single-stock hypothesis with those that follow from a new two-mixing-stock hypothesis. Recruits from the west stock are assumed to move to and remain part of the south stock in annual pulses of varying size. This movement is estimated to be appreciable, and to take place from a substantially more productive west stock to the south stock. This immigration makes a greater contribution to the south-stock biomass than do years of above-average south-stock recruitment. Importantly, this two-mixing-stock hypothesis is shown to be consistent with the data available. Further alternative sardine stock-structure hypotheses suggested by the most recent data are discussed.  相似文献   

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王伟  李迪贵 《大地测量与地球动力学》2015,35(2):232-234

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