Testing an earthquake prediction algorithm   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Vladimir G. Kossobokov  John H. Healy  James W. Dewey 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1997,149(1):219-232

A test to evaluate earthquake prediction algorithms is being applied to a Russian algorithm known asM8 TheM8 algorithm makes intermediate term predictions for earthquakes to occur in a large circle, based on integral counts of transient seismicity in the circle. In a retroactive prediction for the period January 1, 1985 to July 1, 1991 the algorithm as configured for the forward test would have predicted eight of ten strong earthquakes in the test area. A null hypothesis, based on random assignment of predictions, predicts eight earthquakes in 2.87% of the trials. The forward test began July 1, 1991 and will run through December 31, 1997. As of July 1, 1995, the algorithm had forward predicted five out of nine earthquakes in the test area, which success ratio would have been achieved in 53% of random trials with the null hypothesis.  相似文献   

中国大陆及其邻区强震活动与活动地块关系研究   总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16  

马宏生  张国民  刘杰  李丽  陈化然 《地学前缘》2003,10(Z1):74-80

从活动地块假说出发 ,在活动地块研究的基础上 ,探讨了中国大陆及邻区活动地块与强震活动的关系。研究指出 ,主要构造变形和强烈地震大都发生在活动地块边界。在占总面积 17%的活动地块边界上 ,集中了全部的 8级以上巨大地震和 86 %的 7级以上大地震 ,其释放能量占全部总能量的 95 %以上 ,表明中国大陆及其邻区活动地块边界带控制了绝大部分的强地震。从活动地块的整体来看 ,强震活动不仅显示出显著的韵律性特征 ,而且其高、低起伏基本上与中国大陆地区一致 ,只是强震活跃时段有时稍长于中国大陆。各轮回强震活动都有各自活动的主体地区 ,反映了不同活跃期内地块的不同活动方式。文中还从现今地壳运动角度 ,讨论了活动地块运动速率与强地震活动水平之间的可能联系。  相似文献   

1966年以来华北地区一系列七级大震破裂过程的数值模拟   总被引：9，自引：5，他引：9       下载免费PDF全文

陈祖安  白武明  林邦慧  王新华  许国凯  张瑞清  黄为清 《地球物理学报》2003,46(3):373-381

用非连续变形分析方法(DDA+FEM)数值模拟，在华北地区各地块相互制约的块体系统环境中，地块边界断层上发生1966年邢台地震、 1969年渤海地震、 1975年海城地震、 1976年唐山地震等不同类型破裂模式大震的破裂过程. 数值模拟结果给出每个大震释放的主应力场，最大剪应力变化等值线图，地震前后位移变化矢量图，发震断层滑移随时间变化以及走滑错距和应力降等震源参数. 这些结果与地震的震源机制，用地震波资料研究得到的震源参数,宏观等震线,地表观测的水平位移矢量图基本一致. 其中1969年渤海地震正交破裂模式的结果与宏观等震线及小震分布图像更接近. 1976年唐山地震复杂震源模式与该震早期余震分布图像更相符. 表明用DDA+FEM方法进行数值模拟研究，能较好地模拟地震破裂过程.  相似文献   

形变反演模型的非线性平差   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陶本藻 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2001,26(6):504-508

阐述了反演问题参数估计的质量要求，将反演理论中的分辨率和精度与平差中的良好统计性质作了对比分析，为使反演参数得到良好估计，提出平差处理对策。针对反演问题经常是非线性模型，提出了非线性平差的几种方法，最后给出参数筛选的原则和相应的统计检验方法。  相似文献   

Earth’s density flattening and hypothesis of latitudinal normal density     

Hao Xiaoguang  Xu Houze  LIU Dajie 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2001,44(8):673-679

In this paper, the definition of latitudinal density and density flattening of the level ellipsoid is given, and integral formulas of latitudinal density for pole gravity and equator gravity are derived. According to the pole gravity condition and equator gravity condition for the level ellipsoid, latitudinal density distribution function of the level ellipsoid is obtained. It is proved mathematically that latitudinal density of the earth’s equator is larger than that of the pole, the earth’s density flattening calculated preliminarily is 1/322, and hypothesis of the earth’s latitudinal normal density is further proposed, so that theoretical preparation for studying the forming cause of the earth gravity in problems such as continent drift, mantle convection, and submarine extension is made well.  相似文献   

Hypotheses for earthquake occurrences     

Naveen  P. S. Moharir  V. K. Gaur 《Journal of Earth System Science》1983,92(3):261-281

Very little work has been done in generating alternatives to the Poisson process model. The work reported here deals with alternatives to the Poisson process model for the earthquakes and checks them using empirical data and the statistical hypothesis testing apparatus. The strategy used here for generating hypotheses is to compound the Poisson process. The parameter of the Poisson process is replaced by a random variable having prescribed density function. The density functions used are gamma, chi and extended (gamma/chi). The original distribution is then averaged out with respect to these density functions. For the compound Poisson processes the waiting time distributions for the future events are derived. As the parameters for the various statistical models for earthquake occurrences are not known, the problem is basically of composite hypothesis testing. One way of designing a test is to estimate these parameters and use them as true values. Momentmatching is used here to estimate the parameters. The results of hypothesis testing using data from Hindukush and North East India are presented.  相似文献   

Efficiency of kriging estimation for square, triangular, and hexagonal grids   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

Evangelos A. Yfantis  George T. Flatman  Joseph V. Behar 《Mathematical Geology》1987,19(3):183-205

Although several researchers have pointed out some advantages and disadvantages of various soil sampling designs in the presence of spatial autocorrelation, a more detailed study is presented herein which examines the geometrical relationship of three sampling designs, namely the square, the equilateral triangle, and the regular hexagon. Both advantages and disadvantages exist in the use of these designs with respect to estimation of the semivariogram and their effect on the mean square error or variance of error. This research could be used to design optimal sampling strategies; it is based on the theory of regionalized variables, in which the intrinsic hypothesis is satisfied. Among alternative designs, an equilateral triangle design gives the most reliable estimate of the semivariogram. It also gives the minimum maximum mean square error of point estimation of the concentration over the other two designs for the same number of measurements when the nugget effect is small relative to the variance. If the nugget effect is large (.90 ² or more), and the linear sampling density is >0.85r where r is the range, the hexagonal design is best. This study computes and compares the maximum mean square error for each of these designs.  相似文献   

多元正态总体假设检验在矿化带识别中的应用     

纪宏金 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》1991,(3)

根据北瓦地区岩心样品的地球化学数据处理结果,介绍多元正态总体假设检验方法与对应分析相结合在该区铅锌矿化带识别中的应用。从全体数据的对应分析结果出发,将见矿钻孔的样品得分值经稳健处理后作为铅锌矿化带的已知样本,并以马氏距离为统计量对未见矿钻孔的样品进行识别,在一定信度下作出了该区已知铅锌矿化带在深部存在较有意义延伸的统计推断。  相似文献   

地洼学说的理论结构和发展纲领     

陈国达 《地球科学进展》1991,6(5):16-24

地洼学说(活化区理论)自1956年诞生以来,经受过35年的实践检验,已发展成为包括五个组成部分和两个衍生学科的理论体系。它的理论结构是以第一个组成部分,即大陆地壳中发生于地台阶段之后,与地槽区不同特征的一种新型活动区—活化区即地洼区概念为内核,保护层为其余的组成部分和衍生学科,即地壳动定转化递进说、递进(地洼)成矿理论、壳体概念和地幔蠕动热能聚散交替假说,以及构造地球化学和成矿构造学。 地洼学说是属于作者建立的“历史—因果论大地构造学”范畴,它的发展纲领应是运用“历史—动力综合分析法”的研究方法,贯彻理论实践并重和切合生产需要的学术路线,采用充实和加固内核以及调整某些保护层的方式,按照自我完善与学百家之长相结合的原则,研究领域包括学说本身的进一步发展和运用它以解决实际问题。 内核的充实和加固包括两个方面;(1)理论方面的研究,例如地洼区的鉴别依据、类型划分、形成时代、分布地区、地壳运动等方面的问题。(2)实用方面的研究,例如运用区域地质、成矿规律及找矿预测、地热、水文地质、地貌、新构造等方面的问题。  相似文献   

从大洋中脊反思大陆漂移说——兼论地球膨裂说     

白卉  闫玉英  沈文杰 《吉林地质》2007,26(2):71-74

本文通过讨论地幔对流的可能性以及大洋中脊的运动方式,证明了大陆漂移说对大陆漂移的源动力的解释仍存在漏洞,并提出大陆漂移源动力与地球膨裂的关系。对大陆漂移说具有补充性。  相似文献