土壤空间变异研究中的定量分析   总被引：17，自引：0，他引：17  

秦耀东 《地球科学进展》1992,7(1):44-49

 系统地介绍了用地质统计学方法定童地研究土攘空间变异性的基本原理和方法以及这一领域目前研究的几个重点问题，并简单介绍了我国在这方面的研究现状。  相似文献   

Testing an earthquake prediction algorithm   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Vladimir G. Kossobokov  John H. Healy  James W. Dewey 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1997,149(1):219-232

A test to evaluate earthquake prediction algorithms is being applied to a Russian algorithm known asM8 TheM8 algorithm makes intermediate term predictions for earthquakes to occur in a large circle, based on integral counts of transient seismicity in the circle. In a retroactive prediction for the period January 1, 1985 to July 1, 1991 the algorithm as configured for the forward test would have predicted eight of ten strong earthquakes in the test area. A null hypothesis, based on random assignment of predictions, predicts eight earthquakes in 2.87% of the trials. The forward test began July 1, 1991 and will run through December 31, 1997. As of July 1, 1995, the algorithm had forward predicted five out of nine earthquakes in the test area, which success ratio would have been achieved in 53% of random trials with the null hypothesis.  相似文献   

南京粉细砂空间孔隙结构表征单元体确定     

刘语  张巍  梁小龙  许林  唐心煜 《岩土力学》2019,40(7):2723-2729

确定统一的表征单元体(REV)尺寸是研究土体细观孔隙结构时首先需要解决的问题。使用6.5μm分辨率同步辐射显微CT扫描南京粉细砂试样,从土样三维重构模型的5个代表性部位提取5组立方体孔隙REV,对每个REV采用最大球算法分析,建立孔隙网络模型,从中提取孔隙率、单位体积孔隙数、孔隙平均体积、孔隙最小体积、孔隙最大半径、孔隙最小半径、孔隙平均半径、孔隙截面积平均形状因子等8个孔隙结构参数,建立其与REV尺寸间的相关性。利用假设检验T检验和F检验,最终确定样品孔隙结构参数的统一REV边长尺寸为400像素,即2.60mm。该方法可用于砂土、粉土等颗粒土体细观孔隙结构分析。  相似文献   

Misconceptions about the Hubble recession law     

Wilfred H. Sorrell 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2009,323(2):205-211

Almost all astronomers now believe that the Hubble recession law was directly inferred from astronomical observations. It turns out that this common belief is completely false. Those models advocating the idea of an expanding universe are ill-founded on observational grounds. This means that the Hubble recession law is really a working hypothesis. One alternative to the Hubble recession law is the tired-light hypothesis originally proposed by Zwicky (Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 15:773, 1929). This hypothesis leads to a universe that is an eternal cosmos continually evolving without beginning or end. Such a universe exists in a dynamical state of virial equilibrium. Observational studies of the redshift-magnitude relation for Type Ia supernovae in distant galaxies might provide the best observational test for a tired-light cosmology. The present study shows that the model Hubble diagram for a tired-light cosmology gives good agreement with the supernovae data for redshifts in the range 0<z<2. This observational test of a static cosmology shows that the real universe is not necessarily undergoing expansion nor acceleration. An erratum to this article can be found at  相似文献   

The Sunda Shelf—A Submerged Amazon Basin?     

Pinxian Wang 《地球科学进展》2017,32(11):1119-1125

A crucial and debatable issue in paleoclimatology is the change of terrestrial vegetation and the role of its carbon storage in glacial cycles. In the modern world, the Amazon Basin hosts the largest tropical rainforest and plays a major role of carbon sink, but during the glacial times another large tropical rainforest must have formed in the then emerged Sunda Shelf, SE Asia, and significantly changed the global carbon cycling. Accordingly, ocean drilling expeditions to the Sunda Shelf are being proposed in order to investigate the sea level changes, evolution of river network, vegetation and carbon storage, as well as biogeography of the tropical region over the last millions of years.  相似文献   

Intermediate disturbance and patterns of species richness     

Jacob Bendix  John J. Wiley Jr.  Michael G. Commons 《自然地理学》2013,34(5):393-403

Abstract

The intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH) predicts highest species diversity in environments experiencing intermediate intensity disturbance, after an intermediate timespan. Because many landscapes comprise mosaics with complex disturbance histories, the theory implies that each patch in those mosaics should have a distinct level of diversity reflecting the magnitude of disturbance and the time since it occurred. We model changing patterns of species richness across a landscape experiencing varied scenarios of simulated disturbance in order to predict first the variation of richness through time in individual patches, based on their disturbance histories, and then the changing patterns of richness across the landscape through time, representing the cumulative impact of changing richness within the individual patches. Model outputs show that individual landscape patches have highly variable species richness through time, with the trajectory reflecting the timing, intensity and sequence of disturbances. When the results are mapped across the landscape, the resulting temporal and spatial complexity reveals a distribution of biodiversity that is strikingly contingent on the details of disturbance history. These results illustrate the danger of generalization (in either data interpretation or management decisions), as IDH actually imposes a highly variable pattern of diversity.  相似文献   

无机生油假说及其在中国的应用前景   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

袁学诚  李善芳 《中国地质》2012,39(4):843-854

无机生油假说认为,原油和天然气和近地表的生物物质没有根本联系,它们是生成于地幔内的非生物来源的碳氢化合物。因而油气不是一个不可再生资源,而是一个可再生资源。无机生油假说得到地质学、物理学和化学等三个基本学科的支持。在地质观察上,发现全球许多大油田的油气储藏与原始生物物质之间数量上有巨大落差,难于解释它们是由生物生成的。此外,有许多地区在结晶基底或变质基底内,或直接位于其上的沉积岩中发现石油。从生物生油假说来说,也是无法理解的。在化学上,早在二战期间,德国已由人工合成石油(费托合成),并生产了占德国战争中用油的9%的石油。无可争辩地说明,无机可以生成石油。根据化学(物理学)热力学理论分析确认,甲烷是唯一一种在标准温压条件(温度为298.15 K;压力为101325 Pa)下稳定的碳氢化合物,从甲烷形成正常烷属烃只有在压力>3×106kPa、温度>700°C时(相当于地下深度约100 km)才有可能。在地壳内的温压条件下由生物变质形成石油的假说,与化学热力学的基本原则相抵触。从氧化的有机分子,如碳水化合物(C6H12O6)形成较高的碳氢化合物在任何条件下都是不可能的。根据我国长期对深部构造的研究,笔者认为在中国东部及西太平洋蘑菇云岩石圈地幔发育的地区是寻找巨型无机油气田的有利地区,建议在发育蘑菇云岩石圈地幔地区开展无机油气田的勘探,并在无机油气田远景地区布置超深参数钻,以评价含油气远景。另外建议加强物探工作,尤其是研究地震勘探处理基底内三维含油气构造的技术。  相似文献   

Data-driven modelling approaches for socio-hydrology: opportunities and challenges within the Panta Rhei Science Plan     

N.J. Mount  H.R. Maier  E. Toth  A. Elshorbagy  D. Solomatine  F.-J. Chang 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1192-1208

ABSTRACT

“Panta Rhei – Everything Flows” is the science plan for the International Association of Hydrological Sciences scientific decade 2013–2023. It is founded on the need for improved understanding of the mutual, two-way interactions occurring at the interface of hydrology and society, and their role in influencing future hydrologic system change. It calls for strategic research effort focused on the delivery of coupled, socio-hydrologic models. In this paper we explore and synthesize opportunities and challenges that socio-hydrology presents for data-driven modelling. We highlight the potential for a new era of collaboration between data-driven and more physically-based modellers that should improve our ability to model and manage socio-hydrologic systems. Crucially, we approach data-driven, conceptual and physical modelling paradigms as being complementary rather than competing, positioning them along a continuum of modelling approaches that reflects the relative extent to which hypotheses and/or data are available to inform the model development process.