Research on the Application of Time Structure Variation Analysis to the Jiashi-Bachu Earthquake Swarm Sequence     

Yang Xin  Long Haiying  Shangguan Wenming  Nie Xiaohong 《中国地震研究》2008,22(3):251-264

In 1997 - 2003, 27 earthquakes with M≥ 5.0 occurred in the Jiashi-Bachu area of Xinjiang. It was a rare strong earthquake swarm activity. The earthquake swarm has three time segments of activity with different magnitudes in the years 1997, 1998 and 2003. In different time segments, the seismic activity showed strengthenin-qguiet changes in various degrees before earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0. In order to delimitate effectively the precursory meaning of the clustering （strengthening） quiet change in sequence and to seek the time criterion for impending prediction, the nonlinear characteristics of seismic activity have been used to analyze the time structure characteristics of the earthquake swarm sequence, and further to forecast the development tendency of earthquake sequences in the future. Using the sequence catalogue recorded by the Kashi Station, and taking the earthquakes with Ms≥ 5.0 in the sequence as the starting point and the next earthquake with Ms = 5.0 as the end, statistical analysis has been performed on the time structure relations of the earthquake sequence in different stages. The main results are as follows： （1） Before the major earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in the swarm sequence, the time variation coefficient （δ-value） has abnormal demonstrations to different degrees. （2） Within 10 days after δ= 1, occurrence of earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in the swarm is very possible. （3） The time variation coefficient has three types of change. （4） The change process before earthquakes with M5.0 is similar to that before earthquakes with M6.0, with little difference in the threshold value. In the earthquake swarm sequence, it is difficult to delimitate accurately the attribute of the current sequences （foreshock or aftershock sequence） and to judge the magnitude of the follow-up earthquake by δ-value. We can only make the judgment that earthquakes with M5.0 are likely to occur in the sequence. （5） The critical clustering characteristics of the sequence are hierarchical. Onl  相似文献   

运城盆地秋冬季PM_2.5传输特征和源区分析          下载免费PDF全文

刘婉莉  闫世明  王雁  李冬梅  贺钰清  张倩倩 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2022,16(3):119-126

利用2017-2019年空气质量监测数据，采用HYSPLIT后向轨迹模式、聚类分析、潜在源贡献因子分析法（PSCF）和浓度权重轨迹分析法（CWT），对运城市秋冬季大气PM2.5传输路径、对应重污染的天气形势和潜在源区进行分析。结果表明：（1）运城近地层盛行偏东风时污染频率高，弱的偏东风和西南风时，污染物浓度较大。秋冬季PM2.5后向轨迹西北方向最多达53.53%，偏东方向最少为11.25%，偏西方向和西南方向介于两者之间，分别为16.61%和12.06%。（2）不同轨迹对应天气形势不同，西北和偏西轨迹下，500 hPa高度场上为两槽一脊或偏西气流，700～850 hPa受脊前西北气流影响，地面为高压前底部型或均压场型；西南轨迹下，500 hPa高度场上为偏西气流，700～850 hPa运城处于槽前西南气流，地面气压场为高压前底部（底部）或均压场。（3）运城PM2.5潜在源区主要位于陕西南部、四川东部和新疆东南、甘肃的东南部等地区，说明影响运城秋冬季PM2.5的浓度除了来自汾渭平原西南部的颗粒物区域输送，来自西北方向新疆、甘肃的远距离颗粒物传输也是重要来源。  相似文献   

模糊ISODATA聚类算法在声速剖面自动分类中的应用   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

贾延峰  笪良龙  谢骏 《海洋科学》2009,33(12):103-105

依据中国海浅海区30′按月历史统计声速剖面数据,通过归一化处理和Akima差值采样得到梯度剖面,建立起各方区按月归化后的声速剖面分层梯度样本集,并采用模糊ISODATA聚类算法对声速剖面进行聚类分析.通过对分类结果和类内总方差和的分析表明,聚类参数m值在1.1～2.1之间,并以最远邻系统聚类法结果为初始类中心的模糊分类效果较好.应用该方法对海洋中的声速剖面进行自动分类和区划对海洋环境的战术应用意义重大.  相似文献   

Characterizing stream temperature hysteresis in forested headwater streams     

Lorrayne Miralha  Austin D. Wissler  Catalina Segura  Kevin D. Bladon 《水文研究》2023,37(1):e14795

Stream temperature (T_s) is a key water quality parameter that controls several biological, ecological, and chemical processes in aquatic systems. In forested headwaters, exchanges of energy across air-water-streambed interfaces may influence T_s regimes, especially during storm events as the sources of runoff change over space and time. Analysis of the hysteretic behaviour of T_s during storm events may provide insights into rainfall-runoff responses, but such relationships have not been thoroughly investigated. As such, our objectives were to (a) quantify the variability of stream temperature hysteresis across seasons in different sub-regions and (b) investigate the relationship between the hysteretic response and catchment characteristics. T_s hysteresis during storm events was assessed based on the hysteresis index (HI), which describes the directionality of hysteresis loops, and the temperature response index (TRI), which indicates whether T_s increased or decreased during a storm event. We analysed T_s data from 10 forested headwater reaches in two sub-regions (McGarvey and West Fork Tectah) in Northern California. We also performed a clustering analysis to examine the relationship amongst HI, TRI, topographic metrics, and meteorological characteristics of the study areas. Overall, the hysteretic behaviour of T_s varied across seasons—the greatest HI occurred during spring and summer. Interestingly, in the McGarvey streams the variability in T_s hysteresis co-varied strongly with topographic metrics (i.e., upslope accumulative area, average channel slope, topographic wetness index). Comparatively, in West Fork Tectah the variability of T_s hysteresis co-varied most strongly with meteorological metrics (i.e., antecedent rainfall events, solar radiation, and air temperature). Variables such as the gradient between stream and air temperatures, slope, and wetted width were significant for both sub-regional hysteretic patterns. We posit that the drivers of T_s response during storms are likely dependent on catchment physiographic characteristics. Our study also illustrated the potential utility of stream temperature as a tracer for improving the understanding of hydrologic connectivity and shifts in the dominant runoff contributions to streamflow during storm events.  相似文献   

基于混合高斯密度模型和空间上下文信息的遥感影像变化检测方法及扩展   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

宋妍 《遥感学报》2009,13(1)

在运用混合高斯密度模型对差分影像建模的基础上,分别采用顾及上下文信息的概率松弛迭代法和马尔可夫随机场模型法进行影像的变化检测.首先,提出一种运用遗传K均值算法与EM算法联合解算高斯混合密度模型参数的方法,该方法可以自动地解算出模型的统计参数,结果与手工选择样本的解算结果完全一致.然后,比较概率松弛迭代法以及马尔可夫随机场模型法的影像变化检测效果,得出基于模拟退火法的马尔可夫随机场法效果较好的结论.最后,对传统的基于模拟退火法的马尔可夫随机场方法进行改进,提出了一种变权马尔可夫随机场方法,检测结果能更好地保持影像的结构性,并有效去除了孤立噪声.  相似文献   

海洋声速剖面的自动聚类研究          下载免费PDF全文

谢骏  胡均川  笪良龙  李玉阳  卢晓亭 《海洋学报》2009,31(2):34-39

以海区30'网格方区多年月平均统计的声速剖面作为原始数据集,提取声速剖面的表层、主跃层和深海等温层分层结构特征,把我国近海及其邻近海域预分为Ⅰ,Ⅱ和Ⅲ类区。对Ⅱ,Ⅲ类区声速剖面,应用有序样本聚类算法分别进行表层分离。根据各类区的表层声速剖面数据,通过归一化处理和Akima差值采样得到梯度剖面,建立起按月归一化后的声速剖面分层梯度样本集,并应用系统聚类法和SOFM神经网络方法分别进行聚类分析,再根据分类结果并结合各类型海区的声学特点,得到各类型海区声速剖面的典型类型。通过对大量历史数据的分析结果表明,该方法为自动分类海洋声速剖面提供了一条有效路径,弥补了长期以来海洋声速剖面主要依靠人工分类的不足。  相似文献   

全球经济海藻专利研发态势研究          下载免费PDF全文

齐铮  高大海  张冬荣  吴昊 《海洋科学》2023,47(2):20-30

研究全球经济海藻领域专利研发态势,为中国经济海藻技术研发提供参考。基于德温特专利数据库,采用Derwent data analyzer、Derwent innovation等分析工具和平台对1960—2020年经济海藻领域的专利文献进行分析。系统揭示半个多世纪以来经济海藻的全球专利数量变化趋势、专利技术构成、代表国家或地区、主要专利权人、热点技术分布与变迁等内容,同时以产业链为分析视角,梳理热点技术的上、中、下游区位,并通过国际间对比分析得到中国在经济海藻领域技术研发面临的机遇与挑战。中国在经济海藻领域的产业链上游(如海藻栽培)、产业链中游(如药物制剂的治疗活性和提取技术)和产业链下游(如食品烹饪、添加与保存、饲料、肥料和医疗制剂等领域)占据优势,与韩国和日本的产业竞争主要存在于产业链下游,如化妆品、个人护理品和生物杀菌剂等领域,当前缺乏对生物燃料、节能环保和环境修复的研发与关注。  相似文献   

浅海声速剖面自动分类方法研究     

谢骏  胡均川  笪良龙  李玉阳 《海洋通报》2009,28(3)

海洋中的声速剖面是影响水声设备效能的重要环境因素之一,声速剖面的自动分类和区划对海洋环境的应用意义重大.依据浅海30分方区按月统计声速剖面,通过归一化处理和Akima差值采样,建立了各方区按月归化后声速剖面的分层梯度样本集,并应用多种系统聚类算法分别对分层梯度样本集进行分析;计算各种算法在不同聚类数水平下聚类结果的总的类内离差和,依据总的类内离差和变化曲线拐点对应的聚类数目,结合分类结果确定浅海声速剖面最优聚类数目.对大量历史统计声速剖面数据的分析结果表明,该方法得到的聚类结果与人工经验分类结果吻合较好.  相似文献