Evaluation of methods of spatial interpolation for monthly rainfall data over the state of Rio de Janeiro,Brazil     

Gustavo?Bastos?Lyra  Tamíres?Partelli?Correia  José?Francisco?de?Oliveira-Júnior  Marcelo?ZeriEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,134(3-4):955-965

Five deterministic methods of spatial interpolation of monthly rainfall were compared over the state of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil. The methods were the inverse distance weight (IDW), nearest neighbor (NRN), triangulation with linear interpolation (TLI), natural neighbor (NN), and spline tension (SPT). A set of 110 weather stations was used to test the methods. The selection of stations had two criteria: time series longer than 20 years and period of data from 1960 to 2009. The methods were evaluated using cross-validation, linear regression between values observed and interpolated, root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (r ²), coefficient of variation (CV, %), and the Willmott index of agreement (d). The results from different methods are influenced by the meteorological systems and their seasonality, as well as by the interaction with the topography. The methods presented higher precision (r ²) and accuracy (d, RMSE) during the summer and transition to autumn, in comparison with the winter or spring months. The SPT had the highest precision and accuracy in relation to other methods, in addition to having a good representation of the spatial patterns expected for rainfall over the complex terrain of the state and its high spatial variability.  相似文献   

Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Intensification on the Latitude under Vertical Shear     

Mingyu?Bi  Xuyang?GeEmail author  Tim?Li 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2018,32(1):113-123

The sensitivity of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification to the ambient rotation effect under vertical shear is investigated. The results show that the vortices develop more rapidly with intermediate planetary vorticity, which suggests an optimal latitude for the TC development in the presence of vertical shear. This is different from the previous studies in which no mean flow is considered. It is found that the ambient rotation has two main effects. On the one hand, the boundary layer imbalance is largely controlled by the Coriolis parameter. For TCs at lower latitudes, due to the weaker inertial instability, the boundary inflow is promptly established, which results in a stronger moisture convergence and thus greater diabatic heating in the inner core region. On the other hand, the Coriolis parameter modulates the vertical realignment of the vortex with a higher Coriolis parameter, favoring a quicker vertical realignment and thus a greater potential for TC development. The combination of these two effects results in an optimal latitude for TC intensification in the presence of a vertical shear investigated.  相似文献   

Acidity of Aerosols during Winter Heavy Haze Events in Beijing and Gucheng,China     

Xiyuan?Chi  Pengzhen?He  Zhuang?Jiang  Xiawei?Yu  Fange?Yue  Longquan?Wang  Bokun?Li  Hui?Kang  Cheng?Liu  Zhouqing?XieEmail author 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2018,32(1):14-25

We investigated the acidity and concentrations of water-soluble ions in PM_2.5 aerosol samples collected from an urban site in Beijing and a rural site in Gucheng, Hebei Province from November 2016 to January 2017 to gain an insight into the formation of secondary inorganic species. The average SO₄^2–, NO₃^–, and NH₄⁺ concentrations were 8.3, 12.5, and 14.1 μg m^–3, respectively, at the urban site and 14.0, 14.2, and 24.2 μg m^–3, respectively, at the rural site. The nitrogen and sulfur oxidation ratios in urban Beijing were correlated with relative humidity (with correlation coefficient r = 0.79 and 0.67, respectively) and the aerosol loadings. Based on a parameterization model, we found that the rate constant of the heterogeneous reactions for SO₂ on polluted days was about 10 times higher than that on clear days, suggesting that the heterogeneous reactions in the aerosol water played an essential role in haze events. The ISORROPIA II model was used to predict the aerosol pH, which had a mean (range) of 5.0 (4.9–5.2) and 5.3 (4.6–6.3) at the urban and rural site, respectively. Under the conditions with this predicted pH value, oxidation by dissolved NO₂ and the hydrolysis of N₂O₅ may be the major heterogeneous reactions forming SO₄^2– and NO₃^– in haze. We also analyzed the sensitivity of the aerosol pH to changes in the concentrations of SO₄^2–, NO₃^–, and NH₄⁺ under haze conditions. The aerosol pH was more sensitive to the SO₄^2– and NH₄⁺ concentrations with opposing trends, than to the NO₃^– concentrations. The sensitivity of the pH was relatively weak overall, which was attributed to the buffering effect of NH₃ partitioning.  相似文献   

How Does Tropical Cyclone Size Affect the Onset Timing of Secondary Eyewall Formation?     

Liang?Guan  Xuyang?GeEmail author 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2018,32(1):124-134

By using idealized numerical simulations, the impact of tropical cyclone size on secondary eyewall formation (SEF) is examined. Both unbalanced boundary layer and balanced processes are examined to reveal the underlying mechanism. The results show that a tropical cyclone (TC) with a larger initial size favors a quicker SEF and a larger outer eyewall. For a TC with a larger initial size, it will lead to a stronger surface entropy flux, and thus more active outer convection. Meanwhile, a greater inertial stability helps the conversion from diabatic heating to kinetic energy. Furthermore, the progressively broadening of the tangential wind field will induce significant boundary layer imbalances. This unbalanced boundary layer process results in a supergradient wind zone that acts as an important mechanism for triggering and maintaining deep convection. In short, different behaviors of balanced and unbalanced processes associated with the initial wind profile lead to different development rates of the secondary eyewall.  相似文献   

Laboratory and field performance of recycled aggregate base in a seasonally cold region     

Tuncer B. Edil  Bora Cetin  Ali Soleimanbeigi 《寒旱区科学》2017,9(3):183-191

The objective of this project was to characterize the freeze-thaw properties of recycled concrete (RCA) and asphalt (RAP) as unbound base and to assess how they behaved in the field for nearly 8 years. This paper includes an examination of existing information, laboratory studies of freeze-thaw behavior, and evaluation of data from MnROAD field-test sections in a seasonally cold region, i.e., in Minnesota, USA. Test sections were constructed using recycled materials in the granular base layers at the MnROAD test facility. One test section included 100% RAP, another 100% RCA, a third one a 50/50 blend of RCA/natural aggregate, and a fourth one only natural aggregate (Class 5) as a control. The stiffness (i.e., elastic modulus) was monitored during construction and throughout the pavement life by the Minnesota Department of Transportation, along with the variation of temperatures and moisture regimes in the pavement to determine their effects on pavement performance. The resilient modulus of each material was determined by bench-scale testing in accordance with NCHRP 1-28a, as well as by field-scale tests incorporating a falling-weight deflectometer. Specimens were subjected to as many as 20 cycles of freeze-thaw in the laboratory, and the change in their resilient modulus was measured. In the field-test sections constructed with the same materials as the base course, temperature, moisture, and field modulus (from falling-weight deflectometer tests) were monitored seasonally for nearly 8 years. From the temperatures in the base course layer, the number of freeze-thaw cycles experienced in the field was determined for each test section. Inferences were made relative to modulus change versus freeze-thaw cycles. Conclusions were drawn for long-term field performances of the recycled base (RAB) in comparison to natural aggregate.  相似文献   

Macroseepage of methane and light alkanes at the La Brea tar pits in Los Angeles     

Derek?Weber  Bertha?A.?Marquez  Charnise?Taylor  Paul?Raya  Paul?Contreras  David?Howard  Ikenna?Nwachuku  Katie?Fusco  Fernanda?Morales  Lambert?A.?DoezemaEmail author 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2017,74(3):339-356

Geologic seepage of methane and light (C₂-C₅) alkanes was measured at the La Brea Tar Pits in Los Angeles. Samples were collected using flux chambers with stainless steel canisters and analyzed using gas chromatography. Average seepage rates from individual seepage sites were 970 ± 330 mg/h of methane, 14.0 ± 5.5 mg/h of ethane, 9.1 ± 3.7 mg/h of propane, 3.7 ± 1.6 mg/h of i-butane, 0.33 ± 0.16 mg/h of n-butane, 260 ± 120 μg/h of i-pentane, and 5.3 ± 1.9 μg/h of n-pentane, while maximum seepage rates exceeded 17 g/h of methane, 270 mg/h of ethane, 190 mg/h of propane, 95 mg/h of i-butane, 10 mg/h of n-butane, 7 mg/h of i-pentane, and 0.1 mg/h of n-pentane. These absolute fluxes have an additional unknown amount of error associated with them due to sampling methodology, and should be taken as the lower limit of emissions. Samples collected revealed generally dry gas, with high methane emissions relative to the light alkanes. Overall emissions from the tar pits were found to come not only from the active geologic seepage, but also from the outgassing of the standing asphalt at the site. Using the gas ratios, which are negligibly affected by errors introduced by sampling methodology, observed in this study, daily emissions of C₂ – C₅ alkanes from the La Brea area were estimated to be 4.7 ± 1.6 Mg, which represents 2–3 % of total emissions in the entire Los Angeles region.  相似文献   

Ozone structure over the equatorial Andes from balloon-borne observations and zonal connection with two tropical sea level sites     

María?CazorlaEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2017,74(3):377-398

In this paper we present first-time measurements of ozone profiles from a high altitude station in Quito, Ecuador (0.19°S, 78.4°W, and 2391 masl) taken from June 2014 to September 2015. We interpret ozone observations in the troposphere, tropopause, and stratosphere through a zonal comparison with data from stations in the Atlantic and Pacific (Natal and San Cristobal from the SHADOZ network). Tropospheric ozone concentrations above the Andes are lower than ozone over San Cristobal and Natal for similar time periods. Ozone variability and pollution layers are also reduced in the troposphere above the Andes. We explain these differences in terms of reduced contributions from the boundary layer and from horizontal transport. In the tropical tropopause layer, ozone is well-mixed up to near the cold point tropopause level. In this regard, our profiles do not show constraints to deep mixing above 14 km, as has been consistently observed at other tropical stations. Total column ozone and stratospheric column ozone are comparable among the three sites. However, the contribution of tropospheric column ozone to total column ozone is significantly lower above the Andes. Our comparisons provide a connection between observations from tropical stations in equatorial South America separated by the wide continental mass. Identified differences in ozone throughout the atmospheric column demonstrate the global benefit of having an ozone sounding station at the equatorial Andes in support of global monitoring networks.  相似文献   

Mapping the mean monthly precipitation of a small island using kriging with external drifts     

Philippe?CantetEmail author 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,127(1-2):31-44

This study focuses on the spatial distribution of mean annual and monthly precipitation in a small island (1128 km²) named Martinique, located in the Lesser Antilles. Only 35 meteorological stations are available on the territory, which has a complex topography. With a digital elevation model (DEM), 17 covariates that are likely to explain precipitation were built. Several interpolation methods, such as regression-kriging (????????, ????????, and ????????) and external drift kriging (??????) were tested using a cross-validation procedure. For the regression methods, predictors were chosen by established techniques whereas a new approach is proposed to select external drifts in a kriging which is based on a stepwise model selection by the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The prediction accuracy was assessed at validation sites with three different skill scores. Results show that using methods with no predictors such as inverse distance weighting (??????) or universal kriging (????) is inappropriate in such a territory. ?????? appears to outperform regression methods for any criteria, and selecting predictors by our approach improves the prediction of mean annual precipitation compared to kriging with only elevation as drift. Finally, the predicting performance was also studied by varying the size of the training set leading to less conclusive results for ?????? and its performance. Nevertheless, the proposed method seems to be a good way to improve the mapping of climatic variables in a small island.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal variabilities of rainfall data using functional data analysis     

Jamaludin?SuhailaEmail author  Zulkifli?Yusop 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,127(1-2):229-240

The paper analyzes equivalent data for a low density meteorological station network (spatially discontinuous data) and poor temporal homogeneity of thunderstorm observational data. Due to that, a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) dataset was tested. The Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy index value (MUCAPE) above the 200 J kg^?1 threshold was selected as a predictor describing favorable conditions for the occurrence of thunderstorms. The quality of the dataset was examined through a comparison between model results and soundings from several aerological stations in Central Europe. Good, statistically significant (0.05 significance level) results were obtained through correlation analysis; the value of Pearson’s correlation coefficient was above 0.8 in every single case. Then, using methods associated with gridded climatology, data series for 44 weather stations were derived and an analysis of correlation between RegCM modeled data and in situ thunderstorm observations was conducted with coefficients in the range of 0.75–0.90. The possibility of employing the dataset in thunderstorm climatology analysis was checked via a few examples by mapping monthly, seasonal, and annual means. Moreover, long-term variability and trend analysis along with modeled MUCAPE data were tested. As a result, the RegCM modeled MUCAPE gridded dataset was proposed as an easily available, suitable, and valuable predictor for thunderstorm climatology analysis and mapping. Finally, some limitations are discussed and recommendations for further improvements are given.  相似文献   

Analysis of extreme precipitation characteristics in low mountain areas based on three-dimensional copulas—taking Kuandian County as an example     

Cailin?Wang  Xuehui?RenEmail author  Ying?Li 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,127(1-2):169-185

Rainfall in New South Wales (NSW), located in the southeast of the Australian continent, is known to be influenced by four major climate drivers: the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Many studies have shown the influences of ENSO, IPO modulation, SAM and IOD on rainfall in Australia and on southeast Australia in particular. However, only limited work has been undertaken using a multiple regression framework to examine the extent of the combined effect of these climate drivers on rainfall. This paper analysed the role of these combined climate drivers and their interaction on the rainfall in NSW using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to account for model uncertainty by considering each of the linear models across the whole model space which is equal to the set of all possible combinations of predictors to find the model posterior probabilities and their expected predictor coefficients. Using BMA for linear regression models, we are able to corroborate and confirm the results from many previous studies. In addition, the method gives the ranking order of importance and the probability of the association of each of the climate drivers and their interaction on the rainfall at a site. The ability to quantify the relative contribution of the climate drivers offers the key to understand the complex interaction of drivers on rainfall, or lack of rainfall in a region, such as the three big droughts in southeastern Australia which have been the subject of discussion and debate recently on their causes.  相似文献