Using raw regional climate model outputs for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology          下载免费PDF全文

Jie Chen  François P. Brissette  Pan Liu  Jun Xia 《水文研究》2017,31(24):4398-4413

General circulation model outputs are rarely used directly for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology, due to their coarse resolution and inherent bias. Bias correction methods are usually applied to correct the statistical deviations of climate model outputs from the observed data. However, the use of bias correction methods for impact studies is often disputable, due to the lack of physical basis and the bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs. With the improvement in model resolution and reliability, it is now possible to investigate the direct use of regional climate model (RCM) outputs for impact studies. This study proposes an approach to use RCM simulations directly for quantifying the hydrological impacts of climate change over North America. With this method, a hydrological model (HSAMI) is specifically calibrated using the RCM simulations at the recent past period. The change in hydrological regimes for a future period (2041–2065) over the reference (1971–1995), simulated using bias‐corrected and nonbias‐corrected simulations, is compared using mean flow, spring high flow, and summer–autumn low flow as indicators. Three RCMs driven by three different general circulation models are used to investigate the uncertainty of hydrological simulations associated with the choice of a bias‐corrected or nonbias‐corrected RCM simulation. The results indicate that the uncertainty envelope is generally watershed and indicator dependent. It is difficult to draw a firm conclusion about whether one method is better than the other. In other words, the bias correction method could bring further uncertainty to future hydrological simulations, in addition to uncertainty related to the choice of a bias correction method. This implies that the nonbias‐corrected results should be provided to end users along with the bias‐corrected ones, along with a detailed explanation of the bias correction procedure. This information would be especially helpful to assist end users in making the most informed decisions.  相似文献   

Soil property variation mapping through data mining of soil category maps          下载免费PDF全文

Fei Du  A‐Xing Zhu  Lawrence Band  Jing Liu 《水文研究》2015,29(11):2491-2503

Spatial information on soil properties is an important input to hydrological models. In current hydrological modelling practices, soil property information is often derived from soil category maps by the linking method in which a representative soil property value is linked to each soil polygon. Limited by the area‐class nature of soil category maps, the derived soil property variation is discontinuous and less detailed than high resolution digital terrain or remote sensing data. This research proposed dmSoil, a data‐mining‐based approach to derive continuous and spatially detailed soil property information from soil category maps. First, the soil–environment relationships are extracted through data mining of a soil map. The similarity of the soil at each location to different soil types in the soil map is then estimated using the mined relationships. Prediction of soil property values at each location is made by combining the similarities of the soil at that location to different soil types and the representative soil property values of these soil types. The new approach was applied in the Raffelson Watershed and Pleasant Valley in the Driftless Area of Wisconsin, United States to map soil A horizon texture (in both areas) and depth to soil C horizon (in Pleasant Valley). The property maps from the dmSoil approach capture the spatial gradation and details of soil properties better than those from the linking method. The new approach also shows consistent accuracy improvement at validation points. In addition to the improved performances, the inputs for the dmSoil approach are easy to prepare, and the approach itself is simple to deploy. It provides an effective way to derive better soil property information from soil category maps for hydrological modelling. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Evaluation of Reinforcement and Analysis of Stability of a High-Arch Dam Based on Geomechanical Model Testing     

L. Zhang  Y. R. Liu  Q. Yang 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2015,48(2):803-818

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Geotechnical Feasibility Analysis of Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) in Bedded Salt Formations: a Case Study in Huai’an City,China     

Guimin Zhang  Yinping Li  Jaak J. K. Daemen  Chunhe Yang  Yu Wu  Kai Zhang  Yanlong Chen 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2015,48(5):2111-2127

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甘肃省会宁县和定西市安定区退耕农户恩格尔系数差异     

刘璐璐  李锋瑞 《中国沙漠》2019,39(6):192-199

测度退耕还林农户的恩格尔系数并分析其显著影响因素及差异性，对于完善退耕还林政策、巩固退耕还林成果、改善退耕农户贫困状况具有重要的现实意义。选取位于黄土高原丘陵沟壑区的会宁县和定西市安定区退耕户跟踪数据，基于收入、政策、家庭因素等多个层面构建相关经济指标，揭示两个区域退耕户恩格尔系数呈现的基本特征、显著影响因素及其差异性。结果表明：首先，由于自然地理环境和区位相近，会宁县和安定区退耕户恩格尔系数呈现出较为一致的高位波动趋势，消费需求弹性较弱是主要影响因素；其次，退耕还林户补贴率对会宁县恩格尔系数有显著的负向影响，说明退耕还林政策对当地居民经济生活具有显著影响，安定区退耕还林户补贴率对恩格尔系数有显著的正向影响，主要原因是退耕还林补贴额在家庭收入中所占比重较少；最后，会宁县和安定区农户退耕率对恩格尔系数有显著影响，这意味着退耕户的主要收入来源于农业收入。  相似文献   

基于拉格朗日拟序结构的吕宋海峡表层水交换研究     

郑哲昊  庄伟  胡建宇  吴泽轮  刘长建 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(11):21-32

黑潮通过吕宋海峡入侵南海呈现明显的瞬态特征。以往的研究通常将黑潮在吕宋海峡附近的流态分为几种不同类型。本文基于表层地转流计算得到的有限时间李雅普诺夫指数场（FTLE），展示了拉格朗日视角下的吕宋海峡上层水交换特征。从FTLE场提取的拉格朗日拟序结构（LCSs）很好地识别了吕宋海峡附近的典型流态和旋涡活动。此外，这些LCSs还揭示了吕宋海峡周围复杂的输运路径和流体域，这些特征得到了卫星跟踪浮标轨迹的验证，且从流速场中是无法直接识别的。FTLE场显示，吕宋海峡附近表层水体的输运形态主要可分为四类。其中，黑潮直接向北流动的“跨越”形态和顺时针旋转的“流套”形态的发生频次明显高于直接进入南海的黑潮分支“渗入”形态和南海水流出至太平洋的“外流”形态。本文还进一步分析了黑潮在吕宋海峡处的涡旋脱落事件，突出强调了LCSs在评估涡旋输运方面的重要性。反气旋涡旋的脱落个例表明，这些涡旋主要源自黑潮“流套”，涡旋脱落之前可有效地俘获黑潮水。LCS所指示的输运通道信息有助于预测最终被反气旋涡所挟卷水体在上游的位置。而在气旋涡的形成过程中，LCS的分布特征表明，大部分气旋涡并未与黑潮水的输运路径相连通。因此，气旋涡对从太平洋到南海的上层水交换的贡献较小。  相似文献   

Early solar system aqueous activity: K isotope evidence from Allende     

Yun Jiang  Piers Koefoed  Olga Pravdivtseva  Heng Chen  Chun‐Hui Li  Fang Huang  Li‐Ping Qin  Jia Liu  Kun Wang 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2021,56(1):61-76

The alkali element K is moderately volatile and fluid mobile; thus, it can be influenced by both primary processes (evaporation and recondensation) in the solar nebula and secondary processes (thermal and aqueous alteration) in the parent body. Since these primary and secondary processes would induce different isotopic fractionations, K isotopes could become a potential tracer to distinguish them. Using recently developed methods with improved precision (0.05‰, 95% confidence interval), we systematically measured the K isotopic compositions and major/trace elemental compositions of chondritic components (18 chondrules, 3 CAIs, 2 matrices, and 5 bulks) in the carbonaceous chondrite fall Allende. Among all the components analyzed in this study, CAIs, which formed initially under high‐temperature conditions in the solar nebula and were dominated by nominally K‐free refractory minerals, have the highest K₂O content (average 0.53 wt%) and have K isotope compositions most enriched in heavy isotopes (δ⁴¹K: ?0.30 to ?0.25‰). Such an observation is consistent with previous petrologic studies that show CAIs in Allende have undergone alkali enrichment during metasomatism. In contrast, chondrules contain lower K₂O content (0.003–0.17 wt%) and generally lighter K isotope compositions (δ⁴¹K: ?0.87‰ to ?0.24‰). The matrix and bulks are nearly identical in K₂O content and K isotope compositions (0.02–0.05 wt%; δ⁴¹K: ?0.62 to ? 0.46‰), which are, as expected, right in the middle of CAIs and chondrules. This strongly indicates that most of the chondritic components of Allende suffered aqueous alteration and their K isotopic compositions are the ramification of Allende parent‐body processing instead of primary nebular signatures. Nevertheless, we propose the small K isotope fractionations observed (< 1‰) among Allende components are likely similar to the overall range of K isotopic fractionation that occurred in nebular environment. Furthermore, the K isotope compositions seen in the components of Allende in this study are consistent with MC‐ICP‐MS analyses of the components in ordinary chondrites, which also show an absence of large (10‰) isotope fractionations. This is not expected as evaporation experiments in nebular conditions suggest there should be large K isotopic fractionations. Nevertheless, possible nebular processes such as chondrules back exchanging with ambient gas when they formed could explain this lack of large K isotopic variation.  相似文献   

Full and ideal mixing behavior between Zr–Wd (K2ZrSi3O9) and Ti–Wd (K2TiSi3O9): evidences from mineral chemistry,X-ray diffraction pattern and Raman spectrum     

Linlin Chang  Xi Liu  Chunming Wu  Xiaoyang Liu  Guowu Li 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2015,42(3):223-234

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Analysis of Main Controlling Factors of Overburden Failure in Coal Mining Under Thick Coal Seam Geological Conditions     

Pang  Lifu  Liu  Weitao  Qin  Yueyun 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2021,39(2):883-896

According to the theory of elastic mechanics half plane, the mechanical model of roof overburden failure is established. Based on the numerical simulation software FLAC^3D, the failure process of roof overburden in 1308 working face is numerically simulated according to the orthogonal experimental design scheme. Matrix analysis and variance analysis are used to analyze and calculate the simulation results to determine the sensitivity of the main control factors to the failure height of overlying rock of mining roof. The results show that: (1) with the increase of mining depth and the advancing distance of working face, the subsidence of roof overburden increases. (2) The order of influence of main controlling factors on roof overburden failure height is: mining depth > working face length > internal friction angle > mining thickness > coal seam dip angle > cohesion > tensile strength. (3) Variance analysis showed that the mining depth height was significant, the working face length and internal friction angle were significant, and the significance of working face length was slightly greater than that of internal friction angle, and other factors were not significant.

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Enhanced fault detection and exclusion based on Kalman filter with colored measurement noise and application to RTK     

Gao  Yuting  Gao  Yang  Liu  Baoyu  Jiang  Yang 《GPS Solutions》2021,25(3):1-15

GPS Solutions - The tropospheric delay is an important error source in the Global Positioning System (GPS) positioning and navigation applications. Although most of the tropospheric delays can be...  相似文献