Importance sampling based algorithm for efficient reliability analysis of axially loaded piles     

《Computers and Geotechnics》2015

In reliability analysis, the crude Monte Carlo method is known to be computationally demanding. To improve computational efficiency, this paper presents an importance sampling based algorithm that can be applied to conduct efficient reliability evaluation for axially loaded piles. The spatial variability of soil properties along the pile length is considered by random field modeling, in which a mean, a variance, and a correlation length are used to statistically characterize a random field. The local averaging subdivision technique is employed to generate random fields. In each realization, the random fields are used as inputs to the well-established load transfer method to evaluate the load–displacement behavior of an axially loaded pile. Failure is defined as the event where the vertical movement at the pile top exceeds the allowable displacement. By sampling more heavily from the region of interest and then scaling the indicator function back by a ratio of probability densities, a faster rate of convergence can be achieved in the proposed importance sampling algorithm while maintaining the same accuracy as in the crude Monte Carlo method. Two examples are given to demonstrate the accuracy and the efficiency of the proposed method. It is shown that the estimate based on the proposed importance sampling method is unbiased. Furthermore, the size of samples can be greatly reduced in the developed method.  相似文献   

利用地基多通道微波辐射计遥感反演华北持续性大雾天气温、湿度廓线的检验研究   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

郭丽君  郭学良 《气象学报》2015,73(2):368-381

地基多通道微波辐射计可提供高时间分辨率的大气温、湿度和液态水含量廓线遥感探测数据,为大气层结及云雾形成和演变特征研究提供了重要手段,但对其观测数据的可靠性检验研究很少。本研究在对比晴空MonoRTM模拟亮温和微波辐射计观测亮温的基础上,利用华北地区2009—2013年11个雾天气过程的170个时次(其中30个为雾发生时次)的探空数据,检验了美国Radiometrics 35通道MP-3000A型微波辐射计(Microwave Radiometer Profiles,MWRP)探测的温度、水汽密度和相对湿度数据,并结合系留气艇和CloudSat云雷达等观测资料,检验了典型雾个例的MWRP反演的温、湿度廓线数据。与探空数据的比较表明,两者的温度(T)数据的相关系数超过0.98,水汽密度(ρ)的相关系数超过0.95,但相对湿度(RH)的相关系数只有0.67左右。总样本误差分析中MWRP反演的T比探空偏低约3℃,ρ的均方根误差(E)在1 g/m~3以内,RH在1—7 km高度偏大,总样本RH垂直平均E在18%左右,雾天时的RH垂直平均E在23%左右。与系留气艇观测数据比较表明,MWRP反演的T也偏低,但两种探测方式的T和RH在指示雾的发展演变过程中具有很好的一致性。CloudSat云雷达数据验证了MWRP反演显示中高层出现高RH区与云的存在有关。  相似文献   

基于随机二元指标的边坡稳定性分析     

刘小强  周世良  尚明芳  李怡 《地震工程学报》2011,33(Z1)

考虑岩土体抗剪强度参数的变异性,综合极限平衡法和可靠性理论构建了安全系数概率密度分布函数模型。结合实际工程特点,以安全系数大于临界值为标准构建有效区,将有效区安全系数均值与对应可靠度相乘,得到以安全系数和可靠度为随机二元指标的有效安全系数。以有效安全系数为定量指标,将边坡宏观特征现象与定量分析相联系,构建意义更为明确的边坡稳定性分析及评价方法。通过工程实例对比了有效安全系数与传统评价指标之间的差异。所得结论可为工程建设提供参考和借鉴。  相似文献   

Reliability based approach for offloading operation related to motion of two side-by-side moored LNG carriers     

《Applied Ocean Research》2015

A reliability based approach for analysis of offloading operations with two identical LNG carriers moored in a side-by-side configuration is suggested. The approach, although adopted for two tankers, is generally applicable to different types of LNG terminals. Different heading controls are conceivable for the discharging vessel in the case that the heading is not fixed: heading toward wind-sea, heading toward swell, heading toward wind and free weather vaning. The analyses show that heading toward the governing sea state is the most beneficial option for two identical LNG carriers moored in a side-by-side configuration. Strategies are discussed for estimation of limiting weather criteria that are consistent with prescribed target failure probabilities.  相似文献   

Reliability analysis of H-infinity control for a container ship in way-point tracking     

《Applied Ocean Research》2015

Efficient control of ships in a designed trajectory is always a significant charge for ship maneuverings. The purpose of this paper is to design a robust H_∞ controller and a reliability analysis for a container ship in a way-point tracking. First, the H_∞ controller is designed for a container ship because of model parameters’ uncertainties and external disturbances such as waves, winds and ocean currents. Then, to evaluate the reliability of the designed controller, a well-known reliability analysis technique is employed to achieve the predefined heading angle overshoot (that is less than 20%) in way-point tracking. To do this, three random variables including wind speed, wind direction and wave direction are considered as the inputs due to their significant effect on overshoot, compared to other variables. The results demonstrate the capability of the designed H_∞ controller against modeling uncertainties and external disturbances in way point tracking control.  相似文献   

Reliability of mooring lines and piles for a permanently manned vessel in a tropical cyclone environment     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

The factors of safety for stationkeeping systems in current standards (ISO, API) are not derived or validated using reliability analyses. As the oil and gas exploration and production is breaking new boundaries, deploying new floating systems and moving into regions with harsher environments, it is of paramount importance to understand what level of reliability these new marine structures are achieving. This paper presents a reliability analysis of the mooring system of a Floating LNG (FLNG) vessel permanently moored and permanently manned offshore North West Australia in a tropical cyclone environment. The reliability analysis addresses both the mooring chain and the pile foundation. The analysis accounts for the long term characteristics of the environment, including the short term variability, in response to a given sea state and the variability and uncertainty in strength of the mooring chain and the pile. The stationkeeping system was analysed using detailed time domain simulations, capturing system non-linearities and low frequency oscillations as well as wave frequency responses and, thereby, reducing modelling uncertainties to a minimum.It is found that for the conditions modelled, neither the chain nor the pile meet a target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum using the factors of safety commonly used in design following current ISO and API standards. New factors of safety are proposed to achieve this target reliability. For the pile design, one complicating factor is that current design standards do not explicitly define the exceedance probability that should be associated with the characteristic value of the undrained shear strength to be used in the design. It is demonstrated that the required factor of safety is crucially dependent on the definition of this characteristic value and on the level and the type of uncertainty in the soil strength profile. A recommendation is made regarding the definition of this characteristic value and the associated factor of safety. Furthermore, it is found that designing the mooring system to an environmental condition with a return period of 10,000 yr (as an Abnormal Limit State event), and setting the factor of safety to unity, meets the target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum for the pile, if the characteristic undrained shear strength is a lower bound, defined in this paper by the 10th percentile value. For the chain however, this target reliability is not achieved.  相似文献   

Correlation between abnormal trends in the spontaneous fields of tectonic plates and strong seismicities          下载免费PDF全文

Da-Cheng Tan  Jian-Cun Xin 《地震科学（英文版）》2017,30(4):173-181

Tectonic activities, electrical structures, and electromagnetic environments are major factors that affect the stability of spontaneous fields. The method of correlating regional synchronization contrasts(CRSC) can determine the reliability of multi-site data trends or shortimpending anomalies. From 2008 to 2013, there were three strong earthquake cluster periods in the North–South seismic belt that lasted for 8–12 months. By applying the CRSC method to analyze the spontaneous field E_(SP) at 25 sites of the region in the past 6 years, it was discovered that for each strong earthquake cluster period, the E_(SP) strength of credible anomalous trends was present at minimum 30%of the stations. In the southern section of the Tan-Lu fault zone, the E_(SP) at four main geoelectric field stations showed significant anomalous trends after June 2015, which could be associated with the major earthquakes of the East China Sea waters(MS7.2) in November 2015 and Japan's Kyushu island(MS7.3) in April 2016.  相似文献   

基于CMIP6模式优化集合平均预估21世纪全球陆地生态系统总初级生产力变化   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

黄禄丰  朱再春  黄萌田  赵茜  马伟蕊  曾辉 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(5):514-524

利用国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)中18个地球系统模式总初级生产力(GPP)模拟数据,基于传统的多模式集合平均(MME)和可靠集合平均方法(REA),在4个未来情景(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5)下预估了21世纪全球陆地生态系统GPP的变化量,并分析了GPP变化的驱动因子。研究结果表明：在4个未来情景下,基于REA方法预估的全球陆地生态系统年GPP在未来时期(2068—2100年)比历史时期(1982—2014年)分别增长了(14.85±3.32)、(28.43±4.97)、(37.66±7.61)和(45.89±9.21)Pg C,其增量大小和不确定性都明显低于MME方法。在4个情景下,大气CO₂浓度增长对GPP变化的贡献最大,基于REA方法计算的贡献占比分别为140%、137%、115%和75%;除SSP5-8.5(24%)外,其他情景下升温均导致全球陆地生态系统GPP降低(-42%、-37%、-16%),部分抵消了CO₂施肥效应的正面贡献。温度的影响存在纬度差异：升温在低纬度地区对GPP有负向贡献,在中高纬度地区为正向贡献。降水和辐射变化对GPP变化的贡献相对较小。  相似文献   

Evaluation of long-term extreme response statistics of jack-up platforms   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M. J. Cassidy  P. H. Taylor  R. Eatock Taylor  G. T. Houlsby 《Ocean Engineering》2002,29(13):1603-1631

This paper is concerned with the models appropriate for the dynamic assessment of jack-ups, concentrating particularly on the long-term response due to random ocean waves and on work-hardening plasticity models used for spud-can response. A methodology for scaling of short-term statistics, calculated using a Constrained NewWave technique, is shown in a numerical experiment for an example jack-up and central North Sea location. The difference in long-term extreme response statistics due to various footing assumptions is emphasised. Results for two environmental load conditions are described (one excluding and one including wind and current effects) and the role of sea-state severity in the variation of short-term extreme response statistics is also highlighted.  相似文献   

水电站坝的砂层地基地震液化可靠度研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

周江平  李文纲  赵善锐 《工程地质学报》2005,13(3):382-388

对四川地区江河上数座水电站坝基砂层的26组动力三轴试验资料进行了统计分析,基于动剪应力比法的液化判别方法推导了的地震液化的极限状态方程,使用蒙特卡洛随机抽样的方法计算了砂层液化的失效概率,并对某水电站的厂房地基砂层的液化可靠度进行了计算分析。研究表明,统计按粉砂样总体和中细砂样总体划分较为合理;砂层的动剪应力比可采用正态分布;电站砂层地基地震液化的最危险工况为,闸坝盖重加稳定的向上渗流及遭遇Ⅶ度地震荷载,为高液化风险,其液化概率随埋深加大而增大,最危险部位为砂层底板,对坝基砂层应进行抗液化处理。  相似文献