基于小波变换与神经网络的石羊河流域夏季地温预测模型研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

贾东于  李开明  聂晓英  袁春霞  李清峰  高福元 《冰川冻土》2020,42(2):412-422

地温变化在气候反馈效应中起着重要作用， 理解地温及其与影响因素之间的时空关系对预测全球温度变化至关重要。利用1998 - 2017年石羊河流域的逐日常规气象观测资料， 采用小波分析结合BP（Back Propagation）神经网络构建了石羊河流域夏季地温预报模型， 结果表明： 日平均地温预测效果在不同站点均为最佳， 其中预测值和观测值的相关系数均大于0.87， 3 ℃以内的预测概率均大于84%。其中， 民勤地区地温预测效果最好， 预测值和观测值的相关系数达到0.91， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到86%。日最高地温的预测值与观测值的相关系数高于0.8， 但误差平方和、 标准差较大。永昌地区日最高地温的模拟效果最好， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到83%。日最低地温的预测与观测值的平均相关系数高于0.66， 3 ℃以内的预报概率高于83%， 但预测值略低。其中， 武威地区日最低地温的预测效果最好， 预测值与观测值的相关系数为0.72， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到94%。研究成果可为有效弥补干旱、 半干旱区地温观测资料缺失和探讨其与局地气候的关系提供一些参考。  相似文献   

长江河口潮波传播机制及阈值效应分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张先毅  黄竞争  杨昊  欧素英  刘锋  蔡华阳  杨清书 《海洋与湖沼》2019,50(4):788-798

河口潮波传播过程受沿程地形(如河宽辐聚、水深变化)及上游径流等诸多因素影响,时空变化复杂。径潮动力非线性相互作用研究有利于揭示河口潮波传播的动力学机制,对河口区水资源高效开发利用具有重要指导意义。本文基于2007—2009年长江河口沿程天生港、江阴、镇江、南京、马鞍山、芜湖的逐日高、低潮位数据及大通站日均流量数据,统计分析不同河段潮波衰减率与余水位坡度随流量的变化特征,结果表明潮波衰减率绝对值与余水位坡度随流量增大并不是单调递增,而是存在一个阈值流量和区域,对应潮波衰减效应的极大值。为揭示这一阈值现象,采用一维水动力解析模型对研究河段的潮波传播过程进行模拟。结果表明,潮波传播的阈值现象主要是由于洪季上游回水作用随流量加强,余水位及水深增大,导致河口辐聚程度减小,而余水位坡度为适应河口形状变化亦有所减小,从而形成相对应的阈值流量和区域。  相似文献   

深渊着陆器坐底位置的精确测量和反演计算          下载免费PDF全文

陈瀚  丘学林  贺恩远  王元  陈传绪  陈俊 《地球物理学报》2019,62(5):1744-1754

深渊着陆器在下潜过程中,由于受到海流的影响,其坐底位置会偏离投放点,偏离量和偏离方向很难估计,而声学水下定位方法在深渊海区不太适用.通过在海面进行气枪十字放炮作业,利用炮点准确位置和时间信息,以及海底地震仪(Ocean Bottom Seismometer,OBS)记录的直达水波到时,对深渊着陆器的坐底位置进行精确测量可以提供有效定位数据.该方法对采集得到的数据进行预处理,使用蒙托卡洛方法结合最小二乘法,对万泉号着陆器实际坐底位置进行了反演校正,得到三个潜次的位置校正偏移量分别为211m、178m、861m,偏移方向各不相同,校正精度为±20m,比以往的定位精度大为提高.此外,该方法测量确定了三个海底标志物的精确位置,为未来万米无人或载人潜器提供了可靠的水下参考坐标.  相似文献   

Modeling spatially non-stationary land use/cover change in the lower Connecticut River Basin by combining geographically weighted logistic regression and the CA-Markov model   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hui Wang  Scott R. Stephenson  Shijin Qu 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(7):1313-1334

Simulating land use/cover change (LUCC) and determining its transition rules have been a focus of research for several decades. Previous studies used ordinary logistic regression (OLR) to determine transition rules in cellular automata (CA) modeling of LUCC, which often neglected the spatially non-stationary relationships between driving factors and land use/cover categories. We use an integrated geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) CA-Markov method to simulate LUCC from 2001–2011 over 29 towns in the Connecticut River Basin. Results are compared with those obtained from the OLR-CA-Markov method, and the sensitivity of LUCC simulated by the GWLR-CA-Markov method to the spatial non-stationarity-based suitability map is investigated. Analysis of residuals indicates better goodness of fit in model calibration for geographically weighted regression (GWR) than OLR. Coefficients of driving factors indicate that GWLR outperforms OLR in depicting the local suitability of land use/cover categories. Kappa statistics of the simulated maps indicate high agreement with observed land use/cover for both OLR-CA-Markov and GWLR-CA-Markov methods. Similarity in simulation accuracy between the methods suggests that the sensitivity of simulated LUCC to suitability inputs is low with respect to spatial non-stationarity. Therefore, this study provides critical insight on the role of spatial non-stationarity throughout the process of LUCC simulation.  相似文献   

近六百年来长江三角洲地区城镇空间与城镇体系格局演变分析     

覃丽君  金晓斌  蒋宇超  薛樵风  成一农  龙瀛  杨绪红  周寅康 《地理研究》2019,38(5):1045-1062

基于历史文献、古地图和现代遥感数据,引入历史学古代城镇形态复原方法,复原（提取）明代以来长江三角洲地区113座城镇7个时间断面（1461年、1820年、1930年、1970年、1980年、2000年和2010年）下的城镇边界,采用扩张速率、扩张效率、首位度指数和位序-规模法则,分析了近六百年来区域城镇空间与城镇体系等级规模演变格局。取得以下研究结果：\mathrm{①}研究时段内,区内城镇用地总规模由205.98 km²增加到6442.19 km²,扩大了31.27倍;城镇扩张经历了萌芽阶段（明清时期）、起步阶段（民国至改革开放前夕）、成长阶段（改革开放至2000年）和加速阶段（2000—2010年）,城镇扩张速率不断加快,但扩张效率有待提升;\mathrm{②}在城镇等级规模空间格局上,明清时期南京与苏州为区内的一级城镇,民国后,上海逐渐取代其地位,从五级城镇发展成为区域核心城镇,四级以上城镇主要集中在长江干流沿岸和太湖流域,五级以下城镇大多集中在安徽;城镇体系呈首位型分布,城镇首位度较高,且改革开放后的城镇首位度较明清与民国时期要高,不同等级规模城镇之间差距扩大,大城镇优势较强。近30年,长江沿岸城镇发展加速,苏锡常都市圈、南京都市圈等逐渐形成并快速发展。  相似文献   

Volatile element chemistry during accretion of the earth     

《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2020,80(1):125594

We review some issues relevant to volatile element chemistry during accretion of the Earth with an emphasis on historical development of ideas during the past century and on issues we think are important. These ideas and issues include the following: (1) whether or not the Earth accreted hot and the geochemical evidence for high temperatures during its formation, (2) some chemical consequences of the Earth’s formation before dissipation of solar nebular gas, (3) the building blocks of the Earth, (4) the composition of the Earth and its lithophile volatility trend, (5) chemistry of silicate vapor and steam atmospheres during Earth’s formation, (6) vapor - melt partitioning and possible loss of volatile elements, (7) insights from hot rocky extrasolar planets. We include tabulated chemical kinetic data for high-temperature elementary reactions in silicate vapor and steam atmospheres. We finish with a summary of the known and unknown issues along with suggestions for future work.  相似文献   

青藏高原凯蒙蛇绿混杂岩中碱性火山岩的发现及意义     

潘政  史仁灯  黄启帅  陈生生  龚小晗  吴钪  杨可 《岩石矿物学杂志》2020,39(1):18-34

班公湖-怒江洋的关闭时间直接制约青藏高原早期构造演化的认识。最近,在班公湖-怒江缝合带南侧凯蒙蛇绿混杂岩中发现一碱性火山岩,岩性主要是橄榄粗安岩,具粗面结构,斑晶主要是更长石和少量普通辉石,基质主要由更长石、普通辉石和少量填隙的碱性长石组成,有的具辉绿结构。岩石化学成分较一致,Si O2含量介于51.34%~53.91%之间,Ti O2含量为1.02%~1.55%,具有高Al2O3(17.06%~18.46%)和Na2O(4.90%~6.36%)、低K2O(0.05%~0.88%)含量特点,大多数Mg#大于60,最高68.62,里特曼指数(σ)介于3.65~4.47之间,为碱性系列火山岩;富集Sr、Rb、Ba等大离子亲石元素,亏损Nb、Y、Yb等高场强元素,相对富集Zr、Ti,Nb/U、Zr/Nb、La/Yb等比值稳定,分别为7.45~8.51、15.92~17.26和7.26~8.06;(87Sr/86Sr)i值变化范围较小,介于0.706~0.707之间,(143Nd/144Nd)t值在0.512 368~0.512 548之间,说明源区较为一致,结合Ce/Pb-Si O2图解判断结果,认为凯蒙碱性火山岩具有原始地幔、陆壳和深海沉积物源区混合特征。锆石U-Pb同位素定年结果表明该火山岩年龄为101.8±1.1 Ma,可能形成于洋壳俯冲阶段末期,由大陆边缘陆壳与俯冲洋壳板片断离导致软流圈地幔上涌诱发部分熔融所致,推测班公湖-怒江洋大约在早白垩世晚期关闭。  相似文献   

黄河干流头道拐河段凌汛期小流量过程变化及其影响因素研究     

全栋  李超  路新川  史小红  杨朝霞 《冰川冻土》2020,42(2):620-628

黄河干流内蒙古段河道冬季流凌封河期， 河道水量除一部分转化为冰量外， 很大一部分转化为槽蓄水量而贮存在河道中， 导致下游头道拐河段出现小流量过程， 上游河道流量转化为槽蓄水量和贮存的冰量越大， 小流量持续时间越长， 开河期发生凌汛洪水风险越高。通过对1998 - 2016年头道拐站凌讯期流量变化过程分析， 重新界定了小流量上限阈值为330 m³·s^-1， 并且以此值为标准进行小流量过程研究， 分别采用R/S极差分析法、 Fourier变换分析法对近年来小流量过程变化特征进行分析； 结合非线性概率Logit模型和Probit模型对小流量过程的影响因素进行讨论。结果表明： 小流量持续天数变化呈现缩短趋势； 同时， 小流量过程与上游相对来水之间变化关系显著且过程同步， 而滞后于河道槽蓄水量变化过程； 通过Logit模型和Probit模型分析各影响因素变化时相应小流量持续时间变化的响应概率大小， 明确河道冰流量是小流量过程第一影响因素， 气温条件是小流量过程的决定因素， 首封位置和相对来水量是小流量过程重要影响因素。  相似文献   

Morphology and dynamics of the intertidal floodplain along the Amazon tidal river     

Aaron T. Fricke  Charles A. Nittrouer  Andrea S. Ogston  Daniel J. Nowacki  Nils E. Asp  Pedro W. M. Souza Filho 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(1):204-218

Depositional environments along the tidal river downstream of Óbidos have been proposed as important sinks for up to one third of the sediment discharge from the Amazon River. However, the morphology of the intertidal floodplain and the dynamics of sediment exchange along this reach have yet to be described. River-bank surveys in five regions along the Amazon tidal river reveal a distinct transition in bank morphology between the upper, central and lower reaches of the tidal river. The upper tidal-river floodplain is defined by prominent natural levees that control the transfer of water and sediment between the mainstem Amazon River and its floodplain. Greater tidal influence in the central tidal river suppresses levee development, and tidal currents increase sediment transport into the distal parts of the floodplain. In the lower tidal river, the floodplain morphology closely resembles marine intertidal environments (e.g. mud flats, salt marshes), with dendritic tidal channels incising elevated vegetated flats. Theory, morphology and geochronology suggest that the dynamics of sediment delivery to the intertidal floodplain of the Amazon tidal river vary along its length due to the relative influence and coupling of fluvial and tidal dynamics. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

我国瓯江口和珠江口凤鲚洄游模式和生境利用研究     

姜涛  刘洪波  黄洪辉  杨健 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(8):35-40

Habitat use of the tapertail anchovy(Coilia mystus Linnaeus, 1758) from the Oujiang River Estuary and the Zhujiang(Pearl) River Estuary was studied by examining the environmental signatures of Sr and Ca in otoliths using electron probe microanalysis. Individuals from the Oujiang River had higher and varied Sr:Ca ratios(expressed as(Sr:Ca)×1 000, 3.83–13.0 average) in the otolith core regions, suggesting that they were born in brackish or sea waters, and that a freshwater habitat might not be necessary for egg hatching and larval growth.While, individuals from the Zhujiang River had lower Sr:Ca ratios(0.39–2.51 average) in the core regions,suggesting a freshwater origin. After hatching, anchovies from the Zhujiang River migrate downstream to the river estuary close to brackish water. Our results demonstrated varied habitat use for spawning during stages of early life history between the two populations, and suggested that such variations are promoting diversity of life history strategies of this species.  相似文献