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1.
为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型,采用相空间重构(PSR)将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据,同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型,建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机(SVM)模型、小波支持向量机(WSVM)模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机(PSR-SVM)模型预测结果进行对比,通过平均绝对误差(MAE)、平均绝对误差百分比(MAPE)和均方根误差(RMSE)3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明,PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型,边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。 相似文献
2.
Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NOx), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NOx have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions. 相似文献
3.
地下采煤会引起地表沉降、变形,甚至引发山体、河堤滑坡等地质灾害。采动坡体的稳定性研究一直是采矿工程中实际关心的问题。该文首先介绍分析了概率积分法移动变形稳态、动态预测模型以及基于极限平衡理论的单滑面采动坡体稳定性预测模型,提出了使用概率积分法结合Knothe时间函数对采动坡体稳定性进行预测分析的方法,并使用C#及XML Schema语言编制了相关的计算程序。最后,结合一个工程实例对采动坡体稳定性和动态变化过程进行了预测与分析,通过实测数据验证了提出方法的可行性,得出了采动引起的坡体下沉是影响坡体稳定性的主要因素,并提出了在坡体拉伸阶段进行注浆加固的方法。 相似文献
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1 IntroductionAccordingtogeologicalstructure ,theGansu Ningxia Qinghaiareabelongstothenortheastmar ginofQinghai Tibetblock .Thisareahasbeenpaidmuchattentionby geo specialistsinChinaandabroadbecauseofitssignificanttectonicmovement,itsintensiveseismicity ,anditsimportanceinearth quakehazardmitigation .IntheDevelopmentPro gramonNationalKeyBasicResearchesundertheProject“MechanismandPredictionofContinentalStrongEarthquakes”,themechanismsofcontinen talstrongearthquakesarestudied ,usinghypo… 相似文献
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本文提出了一种把经纬度网格点上的气象要素值转化到正方形网格点上的多项式插值方案。对插值方案作了稳定性讨论和定量及定性分析。结果表明,这种插值方案方便可行,而且有广泛适用性。 相似文献
8.
A. Habib J. Vernin Z. Benkhaldoun H. Lanteri 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,368(3):1456-1462
In this paper, we present a new method to estimate, for each turbulent layer labelled i , the horizontal wind speed v ( h i ) , the standard deviation of the horizontal wind speed fluctuations σ v ( hi ) and the integrated value of C 2 n over the thickness Δ hi of the turbulent layer C 2 n ( hi )Δ hi , where hi is the altitude of the turbulent layer. These parameters are extracted from single star scintillation spatiotemporal cross-correlation functions of atmospheric speckles obtained within the generalized mode. This method is based on the simulated annealing algorithm to find the optimal solution required to solve the problem. Astrophysics parameters for adaptive optics are also calculated using C 2 n ( hi ) and v ( hi ) values. The results of other techniques support this new method. 相似文献
9.
J. M. Diego J. Mohr J. Silk G. Bryan 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,341(2):599-608
We develop a new method to estimate the redshift of galaxy clusters through resolved images of the Sunyaev–Zel'dovich effect (SZE). Our method is based on morphological observables which can be measured by actual and future SZE experiments. We test the method with a set of high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations of galaxy clusters at different redshifts. Our method combines the observables in a principal component analysis. After calibrating the method with an independent redshift estimation for some of the clusters, we show – using a Bayesian approach – how the method can give an estimate of the redshift of the galaxy clusters. Although the error bars given by the morphological redshift estimation are large, it should be useful for future SZE surveys where thousands of clusters are expected to be detected; a first preselection of the high-redshift candidates could be done using our proposed morphological redshift estimator. Although not considered in this work, our method should also be useful to give an estimate of the redshift of clusters in X-ray and optical surveys. 相似文献
10.
O. Tamuz T. Mazeh S. Zucker † 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,356(4):1466-1470
We suggest a new algorithm to remove systematic effects in a large set of light curves obtained by a photometric survey. The algorithm can remove systematic effects, such as those associated with atmospheric extinction, detector efficiency, or point spread function changes over the detector. The algorithm works without any prior knowledge of the effects, as long as they linearly appear in many stars of the sample. The approach, which was originally developed to remove atmospheric extinction effects, is based on a lower rank approximation of matrices, an approach which has already been suggested and used in chemometrics, for example. The proposed algorithm is especially useful in cases where the uncertainties of the measurements are unequal. For equal uncertainties, the algorithm reduces to the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) algorithm. We present a simulation to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm and we point out its potential, in the search for transit candidates in particular. 相似文献