非典型周期和气候突变的识别与判定          下载免费PDF全文

秦建国 《水文》2020,40(1):23-28

通过两种新方法分析了无锡站降水年际变化的突变性、周期性等特征,揭示了旱涝演化的自然规律。研究表明,1934、1978、2013年是我国近现代气候突变的临界点,这是旱涝演化的自然选择;无锡站年际降水的观测历史可分成四个特征不同的时段,每个时段节点对应的都是一次气候突变;气候突变会改变年际降水序列的一致性,分段法研究可以大幅度降低模拟难度、提高预测效率。发现并确认了3个气候突变点,实现了超长缺测中断期(13a)旱涝趋势的精确插补,完成了无锡站近百年降雨序列的周期性分析与旱涝趋势预测模拟,研究成果改变了近现代气候历史无法细分的现状。  相似文献   

Fully coupled hydraulic fracture simulation using the improved element partition method     

Shujun Peng  Zhennan Zhang  Jianye Mou  Bing Zhao  Zhiyuan Liu  Jiading Wang 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2019,43(1):441-460

The improved element partition method (IEPM) is a newly developed fracture simulation approach. IEPM allows a fracture to run across an element without introducing extra degrees of freedom. It can also simulate any number of fractures in a prescribed mesh without remeshing. In this study, the IEPM is extended to hydraulic fracture simulation. First, the seepage and volumetric storage matrix of a cracked element are derived using virtual nodes (the intersection points of a crack with element edges). Subsequently, the fully coupled hydromechanical equation is derived for this cracked element. To eliminate the extra degrees of freedom (virtual nodal quantities), the water pressure and displacement of the virtual nodes are associated with their adjacent nodes through least squares interpolation. Finally, the fully coupled equation in terms of nodal quantities is obtained. The verification cases validate the method. By using this method, the field-scale hydraulic fracturing process is well simulated. The proposed approach is simple and efficient for field-scale hydraulic fracture simulation.  相似文献   

基于分区间泛化Kriging近似模型的船舶局部结构形状优化     

张干锋  王德禹 《海洋工程》2018,36(6):46-57

为提高Kriging近似模型在船舶结构性能多维度响应预测方面的适用性,对常规Kriging近似模型进行分区间泛化改进:一是对设计样本点的各个维度(分量)进行划区,并在每一个分区间内采用最优拉丁超立方(OLhd)取样;二是引入比例系数w1组合高斯与指数型相关函数提高模型对数据的泛化能力,从而在每个划分的区间内建立泛化的Kriging近似模型。通过SCH测试函数,验证了构造的分区间泛化Kriging模型有效性。结合参数化建模和改进Kriging近似模型对某过渡肘板和舱口角隅边界进行形状优化,优化第一阶段由改进的近似模型通过多岛遗传算法得到全局初步的最优解,第二阶段在初步解的基础上缩小优化变量范围,由少量的FEM计算即可在小范围内搜寻到精确的最优设计变量。结果表明:分区间泛化Kriging近似模型在预测多维度响应时较常规Kriging模型预测精度更高;分阶段的形状优化流程在保证极小误差和缩小计算成本的情况下能够得到理想的应力分布和重量优化结果,有助于船舶结构的轻量化研究。  相似文献   

Discussion of user-defined parameters for recursive subspace identification: Application to seismic response of building structures     

Shieh-Kung Huang  Jun-Da Chen  Kenneth J. Loh  Chin-Hsiung Loh 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(15):1738-1757

Structural damage assessment under external loading, such as earthquake excitation, is an important issue in structural safety evaluation. In this regard, an appropriate data analysis and system identification technique is required to interpret the measured data and to identify the state of the structure. Generally, the recursive system identification algorithm is used. In this study, the recursive subspace identification (RSI) algorithm based on the matrix inversion lemma algorithm with oblique projection technique (RSI-Inversion-Oblique) is applied to investigate the time-varying dynamic characteristics. The user-defined parameters used in the RSI-Inversion-Oblique technique are carefully discussed, which include the size of the data Hankel matrix (i), model order to extract the physical modes, and forgetting factor (FF) to detect the time-varying system modal frequencies. Response data from the Northridge earthquake from the Sherman Oaks building (CSMIP) is used as an example to examine a systematic method to determine the suitable user-defined parameters in RSI. It is concluded that the number of rows in the data Hankel matrix significantly influences the identification of the time-varying fundamental modal frequency of the structure. An algorithmic model order selection method using the eigenvalue distribution of RSI-Inversion can detect the system modal frequencies at each appending data window without causing any abnormality.  相似文献   

Decadal link between longitudinal morphological changes in branching channels of Yangtze estuary and movement of the offshore depo-center     

Boyuan Zhu  Yao Yue  Alistair G.L. Borthwick  Wenjun Yu  Enhang Liang  Jinwu Tang  Yuanfang Chai  Yitian Li 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(11):2689-2705

In estuaries, the morphology of inland and offshore areas usually evolves synergistically. This study examines the decadal link between longitudinal changes in morphology of branching channels and movement of the offshore depo-center (where sediment deposition rate is maximum) of the Yangtze River estuary, under intense human interference. Integrated data analysis is provided on morphology, runoff discharge, and ebb partition ratio from 1950 to 2017. Channel-volume reductions and change rates between isobaths in branching channels reflect the impact of estuarine engineering projects. Ebb partition ratio and duration of discharge ≥ 60 000 m³ s^-1 act as proxies for the water excavating force in branching channels and runoff intensity. It is found that deposition occurs in the lower/upper sub-reaches (or further downstream/upstream channels) of the inland north/south branching channels, and the offshore depo-center moves southward or southeastward, as runoff intensity grows; the reverse occurs as runoff intensity declines. This is because the horizontal circumfluence in the Yangtze estuary rotates clockwise as ebb partition ratios of the north/south branching channels increase/decrease for increasing runoff, and conversely rotates anticlockwise for decreasing runoff. Land reclamation activities, the Deepwater Channel Project, and the Qingcaosha Reservoir have impacted greatly on longitudinal changes of morphology in the North Branch and the South Passage and on ebb partition ratio variations in the North/South Channel and the North/South Passage. Dam-induced runoff flattening has enhanced deposition in the upper/lower sub-reaches of the north/south branching channels and caused northward movement of the offshore depo-center, except in areas affected by estuarine engineering projects. Dam-induced longitudinal evolution of branching channel morphology and offshore depo-center movement will likely persist in the future, given the ongoing construction of large cascade dams in the upper Yangtze and the completion of major projects in the Yangtze estuary. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

湖相介形类壳体微量元素在古环境重建中的应用     

姜高磊  刘林敬  毛欣 《海洋地质与第四纪地质》2020,40(2):192-199

湖相介形类壳体微量元素(本文主要指Mg和Sr)是重建古环境的重要指标之一,可以定性或定量地反映湖水信息。自20世纪80年开始应用以来,经过30余年的发展取得了很大进展。在古环境重建过程中主要存在两类影响因素:(1)其宿生水体中M/Ca比值(M主要指Mg和Sr)的影响因素:季节变化、微环境差异和湖泊演化过程,这类因素通过对宿生水体中M/Ca比值来影响介形虫壳体中的M/Ca比值,进而造成古环境重建结果的误差增大或可靠性降低;(2)介形类壳体微量元素分配系数的影响因素:宿生水体中M/Ca比值、温度、碱度等,这类因素能够直接影响介形类壳体分泌、钙化的生命-化学过程的因素,是定量重建的重要影响因素。加强现代介形类生活习性和微量元素组成变化过程的研究可以消除或减小以上影响因素对古环境重建的影响,提高介形类壳体化石中微量元素组成在古环境重建研究中的精度和可靠性。  相似文献   

Quantifying sand delivery to deep water during changing sea-level: Numerical models from the Quaternary Brazos Icehouse continental margin     

Oriol Falivene  Bradford E. Prather  John Martin 《Basin Research》2020,32(6):1711-1733

Sequence stratigraphy for clastic continental margins predicts the development of sand-rich turbidite deposits during specific times in relation to base-level cycles. It is now widely understood that deltas can extend to the shelf-edge forced by high sediment flux and/or base level, providing a direct connection to transfer sediment and sand to the slope and basin floor even during high base level periods. Herein, we build a stratigraphic forward model for the last 120 kyr of the fluvio-deltaic to deep-water Brazos system (USA) where sediment partitioning along an Icehouse continental margin can be evaluated. The reduced-complexity stratigraphic forward model employs geologically constrained input parameters and mass balance. The modelled architecture is consistent with the location of depositional units previously mapped in the shelf. Sand bypasses the shelf and upper slope between 35 to 15 kyr before present and only about 20%–30% of all the sediment and sand supplied to the system is transferred to deep water. Several scenarios based on the initial Brazos model investigate the relationships between base level and deep-water sand ratio (DWSR). DWSR is defined as the relative amount of sand transferred to the deep-water portions of the system subdivided by the total sand input to the model. Linear correlations between DWSR and base level change rates or base level are very poor. Short-term variability due to local processes (for example avulsions) is superimposed to the long-term trends and mask the base level signal. DWSR for an entire base-level cycle is mainly controlled by the proportion of time the delta stays docked at the shelf-edge. Stratigraphic forward models are useful to complement field observations and quantify how different processes control stratigraphy, which is important for making predictions in areas with limited information.  相似文献   

黑龙江省五常地区重力场特征及区域地质构造特征分析     

牛军平  李宁  关淑艳  张洪普  丁兆芹  华伟  张作新 《吉林地质》2011,30(3):73-77

区域重力调查工作,对断裂的空间位置及区域构造分区是主要地质任务之一。本文利用布格重力异常,进行深部场、浅部场的分析。通过场的分离对区域场与剩余场特征分析;经过异常转换信息划分区域地质构造界线,特别是对Ⅲ级构造单元的划分从重力异常成果中,获得三高二低趋势,通过深大断裂划分确定区域地质构造分区界线,从而重新划分该区Ⅲ级以上构造区块位置,本次工作成果将为今后该区研究工作带来新的信息。  相似文献   

基于耦合关系的干旱绿洲区农村居民点整理分区研究——以张掖市甘州区为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

高小琛  石培基  潘竟虎  吕立刚 《地球科学进展》2011,26(10):1071-1078

以张掖市甘州区为例,利用系统科学理论与方法,研究农村居民点整理与农村社会经济之间的动态耦合规律,并以甘州区18个乡镇为研究单元,构建了农村居民点用地整理分区评价指标体系,利用熵值法确定权重,计算农村居民点整理的综合评价值,运用层次筛选法将研究区划分为5个整理区。研究结果：①甘州区农村居民点与农村社会经济的耦合度演化分为3个阶段：1995—1997年,二者不甚协调;1998—2003年,二者都处于持续、稳定、最佳协调发展状态;2004—2007年,二者处于相对稳定协调状态;目前二者处于不甚协调发展阶段。②农村居民点整理分区包括优先整理区、强化整理区、适度整理区、一般整理区和完善整理区。  相似文献   

德州市土地利用合理性分析     

刘晓庆  李云岭  高洁  丛康林 《山东国土资源》2011,27(5)

土地利用合理性主要是分析各类土地在全区范围内的分布是否合理,总结土地利用的特点和规律,为城市的规划提供参照。该文基于聚类分析方法对德州市城区建设用地进行分析,提出由分区变化率来推断分区建设用地的合理性。结果显示,运河开发区建设用地利用合理性最高。  相似文献