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T. Furevik M. Bentsen H. Drange I. K. T. Kindem N. G. Kvamstø A. Sorteberg 《Climate Dynamics》2003,21(1):27-51
A new coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model has been developed, named the Bergen Climate Model (BCM). It consists of the atmospheric model ARPEGE/IFS, together with a global version of the ocean model MICOM including a dynamic–thermodynamic sea ice model. The coupling between the two models uses the OASIS software package. The new model concept is described, and results from a 300-year control integration is evaluated against observational data. In BCM, both the atmosphere and the ocean components use grids which can be irregular and have non-matching coastlines. Much effort has been put into the development of optimal interpolation schemes between the models, in particular the non-trivial problem of flux conservation in the coastal areas. A flux adjustment technique has been applied to the heat and fresh-water fluxes. There is, however, a weak drift in global mean sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-surface salinity (SSS) of respectively 0.1 °C and 0.02 psu per century. The model gives a realistic simulation of the radiation balance at the top-of-the-atmosphere, and the net surface fluxes of longwave, shortwave, and turbulent heat fluxes are within observed values. Both global and total zonal means of cloud cover and precipitation are fairly close to observations, and errors are mainly related to the strength and positioning of the Hadley cell. The mean sea-level pressure (SLP) is well simulated, and both the mean state and the interannual standard deviation show realistic features. The SST field is several degrees too cold in the equatorial upwelling area in the Pacific, and about 1 °C too warm along the eastern margins of the oceans, and in the polar regions. The deviation from Levitus salinity is typically 0.1 psu – 0.4 psu, with a tendency for positive anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere, and negative in the Southern Hemisphere. The sea-ice distribution is realistic, but with too thin ice in the Arctic Ocean and too small ice coverage in the Southern Ocean. These model deficiencies have a strong influence on the surface air temperatures in these regions. Horizontal oceanic mass transports are in the lower range of those observed. The strength of the meridional overturning in the Atlantic is 18 Sv. An analysis of the large-scale variability in the model climate reveals realistic El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic–Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO) characteristics in the SLP and surface temperatures, including spatial patterns, frequencies, and strength. While the NAO/AO spectrum is white in SLP and red in temperature, the ENSO spectrum shows an energy maximum near 3 years. 相似文献
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Bayesian analysis of stage–fall–discharge models for gauging stations affected by variable backwater
Parsimonious stage–fall–discharge rating curve models for gauging stations subject to backwater complications are developed from simple hydraulic theory. The rating curve models are compounded in order to allow for possible shifts in the hydraulics when variable backwater becomes effective. The models provide a prior scientific understanding through the relationship between the rating curve parameters and the hydraulic properties of the channel section under study. This characteristic enables prior distributions for the rating curve parameters to be easily elicited according to site‐specific information and the magnitude of well‐known hydraulic quantities. Posterior results from three Norwegian and one American twin‐gauge stations affected by variable backwater are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The case studies demonstrate that the proposed Bayesian rating curve assessment is appropriate for developing rating procedures for gauging stations that are subject to variable backwater. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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A novel downscaling approach of the ERA40 (ECMWF 40-years reanalysis) data set has been taken and results for comparison with
observations in Norway are shown. The method applies a nudging technique in a stretched global model, focused in the Norwegian
Sea (67°N, 5°W). The effective resolution is three times the one of the ERA40, equivalent to about 30 km grid spacing in the
area of focus. Longer waves (<T42) in the downscaled solution are nudged towards the ERA40 solution, and thus the large-scale
circulation is similar in the two data sets. The shorter waves are free to evolve, and produce high intensities of winds and
precipitation. The comparison to observations incorporate numerous station data points of (1) precipitation (#357), (2) temperature
(#98) and (3) wind (#10), and for the period 1961–1990, the downscaled data set shows large improvements over ERA40. The daily
precipitation shows considerable reduction in bias (from 50 to 11%), and twofold reduction at the 99.9 percentile (from −59
to −29%). The daily temperature showed a bias reduction of about a degree in most areas, and relative large RMSE reduction
(from 7.5 to 5.0°C except winter). The wind comparison showed a slight improvement in bias, and significant improvements in
RMSE. 相似文献
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Trond Reitan Asgeir Petersen-Øverleir 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2008,22(3):351-365
This paper presents a Bayesian approach for fitting the standard power-law rating curve model to a set of stage-discharge
measurements. Methods for eliciting both regional and at-site prior information, and issues concerning the determination of
prior forms, are discussed. An efficient MCMC algorithm for the specific problem is derived. The appropriateness of the proposed
method is demonstrated by applying the model to both simulated and real-life data. However, some problems came to light in
the applications, and these are discussed. 相似文献
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Trond Reitan Asgeir Petersen-Øverleir 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(5):627-642
This study explores Bayesian methods for handling compound stage–discharge relationships, a problem which arises in many natural
rivers. It is assumed: (1) the stage–discharge relationship in each rating curve segment is a power-law with a location parameter,
or zero-plane displacement; (2) the segment transitions are abrupt and continuous; and (3) multiplicative measurement errors
are of equal variance. The rating curve fitting procedure is then formulated as a piecewise regression problem where the number
of segments and the associated changepoints are assumed unknown. Procedures are developed for describing both global and site-specific
prior distributions for all rating curve parameters, including the changepoints. Estimation and uncertainty analysis is evaluated
using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) techniques. The first model explored accounts for parameter and model uncertainties
in the interpolated area, i.e. within the range of available stage–discharge measurements. A second model is constructed in
an attempt to include the uncertainty in extrapolation, which is necessary when the rating curve is used to estimate discharges
beyond the highest or lowest measurement. This is done by assuming that the rate of changepoints both inside and outside the
measured area follows a Poisson process. The theory is applied to actual data from Norwegian gauging stations. The MCMC solutions
give results that appear sensible and useful for inferential purposes, though the latter model needs further efforts in order
to obtain a more efficient simulation scheme. 相似文献
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Asgeir Sorteberg Øystein Hov Sverre Solberg Kjetil Tørseth Hans Areskoug Martin Ferm Kit Granby Heikki Lättilä Karin Persson David Simpson 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1998,30(2):241-271
Observations of the concentration of several nitrogen containing compounds at five rural Scandinavian sites during March–June 1993 are reported. Total nitrate (NO
3
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+ HNO3) and total ammonium (NH
4
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+ NH3) were measured by denuder and filter pack. In general the methods agree well. At all sites the particulate fraction dominated, with the largest fraction of NO
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and the lowest of NH
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at the sites which were closest to the emission sources. The fraction of NO
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of total nitrate increased with increasing NO2 concentrations, indicating that the nighttime conversion of NO2 to NO
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is an important route of formation for NO
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. A positive correlation was found between HNO3 and O3 in June at all sites, while no correlation was found early in the spring. Model calculations were made with a lagrangian boundary layer photooxidant model for the whole period, and compared to the measured concentrations. The calculated ratio between mean observed and modelled daily maximum concentrations of ozone over the measurement period were within +/–10% at all sites. The models ability to describe the daily ozone maximum concentration was satisfactory with an average deviation of 19–22% from the observed concentrations. HNO3 was underestimated by over 50% at all sites except the one closest to the emission sources. The correlation between modelled and observed concentrations was generally best for the sites with shortest transport distance from the sources of emission. 相似文献
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Asgeir Brekke 《Planetary and Space Science》1973,21(4):698-702
In a recent paper, Brekke and Pettersen (1972) have introduced a method for estimating any indirect process in the production of the ) atoms in pulsating aurora; for 38 per cent of their data they found that the decay time for the indirect mechanism was shorter than the effective lifetime of the state. These data are related to the energy transfer from the N2(A3Σ) molecules to the state, and evidence is found for this process to contribute in the altitude range below 125 km. 相似文献