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Variability of Fram Strait sea ice export: causes, impacts and feedbacks in a coupled climate model 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
Analyses of a 500-year control integration of the global coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean model ECHAM5.0/MPI-OM show a high
variability in the ice export through Fram Strait on interannual to decadal timescales. This variability is mainly determined
by variations in the sea level pressure gradient across Fram Strait and thus geostrophic wind stress. Ice thickness anomalies,
formed at the Siberian coast and in the Chukchi Sea, propagate across the Arctic to Fram Strait and contribute to the variability
of the ice export on a timescale of about 9 years. Large anomalies of the ice export through Fram Strait cause fresh water
signals, which reach the Labrador Sea after 1–2 years and lead to significant changes in the deep convection. The associated
anomalies in ice cover and ocean heat release have a significant impact on air temperature in the Labrador Sea and on the
large-scale atmospheric circulation. This affects the sea ice transport and distribution in the Arctic again. Sensitivity
studies, simulating the effect of large ice exports through Fram Strait, show that the isolated effect of a prescribed ice/fresh
water anomaly is very important for the climate variability in the Labrador Sea. Thus, the ice export through Fram Strait
can be used for predictability of Labrador Sea climate up to 2 years in advance. 相似文献
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We investigate the sensitivity of the transient climate change to a tidal mixing scheme. The scheme parameterizes diapycnal diffusivity depending on the location of energy dissipation over rough topography, whereas the standard configuration uses horizontally constant diffusivity. We perform ensemble climate change experiments with two setups of MPIOM/ECHAM5, one setup with the tidal mixing scheme and the second setup with the standard configuration. Analysis of the responses of the transient climate change to CO2 increase reveals that the implementation of tidal mixing leads to a significant reduction of the transient surface warming by 9 %. The weaker surface warming in the tidal run is localized particularly over the Weddell Sea, likely caused by a stronger ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean. The analysis of the ocean heat budget reveals that the ocean heat uptake in both experiments is caused by changes in convection and advection. In the upper ocean, heat uptake is caused by reduced convection and enhancement of the Deacon Cell, which appears also in isopycnal coordinates. In the deeper ocean, heat uptake is caused by reduction of convective cooling associated with the circulation polewards of 65°S. Tidal mixing leads to stronger heat uptake in the Southern Ocean by causing stronger changes in advection, namely a stronger increase in the Deacon Cell and a stronger reduction in advective cooling by the circulation polewards of 65°S. Counter-intuitively, the relation between tidal mixing and greater heat storage in the deep ocean is an indirect one, through the influence of tidal mixing on the circulation. 相似文献
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Steffen Tietsche Dirk Notz Johann H. Jungclaus Jochem Marotzke 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2511-2526
In projections of twenty-first century climate, Arctic sea ice declines and at the same time exhibits strong interannual anomalies. Here, we investigate the potential to predict these strong sea-ice anomalies under a perfect-model assumption, using the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model in the same setup as in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We study two cases of strong negative sea-ice anomalies: a 5-year-long anomaly for present-day conditions, and a 10-year-long anomaly for conditions projected for the middle of the twenty-first century. We treat these anomalies in the CMIP5 projections as the truth, and use exactly the same model configuration for predictions of this synthetic truth. We start ensemble predictions at different times during the anomalies, considering lagged-perfect and sea-ice-assimilated initial conditions. We find that the onset and amplitude of the interannual anomalies are not predictable. However, the further deepening of the anomaly can be predicted for typically 1 year lead time if predictions start after the onset but before the maximal amplitude of the anomaly. The magnitude of an extremely low summer sea-ice minimum is hard to predict: the skill of the prediction ensemble is not better than a damped-persistence forecast for lead times of more than a few months, and is not better than a climatology forecast for lead times of two or more years. Predictions of the present-day anomaly are more skillful than predictions of the mid-century anomaly. Predictions using sea-ice-assimilated initial conditions are competitive with those using lagged-perfect initial conditions for lead times of a year or less, but yield degraded skill for longer lead times. The results presented here suggest that there is limited prospect of predicting the large interannual sea-ice anomalies expected to occur throughout the twenty-first century. 相似文献
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G.A. Jungclaus G.U. Yuen C.B. Moore J.G. Lawless 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1976,11(3):231-237
Alcohols, aldehydes and ketones identified in the Murchison C2 chondrite include: methanol, ethanol, 2-propanol, butyl alcohols, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, propionaldehyde, acetone, 2-butanone, 3-pentanone and 2-pentanone. 相似文献
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A multimodel comparison of centennial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Matthew B. Menary Wonsun Park Katja Lohmann Michael Vellinga Matthew D. Palmer Mojib Latif Johann H. Jungclaus 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(11-12):2377-2388
A mechanism contributing to centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is tested with multi-millennial control simulations of several coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). These are a substantially extended integration of the 3rd Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model (HadCM3), the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), and the Max Plank Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Significant AMOC variability on time scales of around 100?years is simulated in these models. The centennial mechanism links changes in the strength of the AMOC with oceanic salinities and surface temperatures, and atmospheric phenomena such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). 2 of the 3 models reproduce all aspects of the mechanism, with the third (MPI-ESM) reproducing most of them. A comparison with a high resolution paleo-proxy for Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) north of Iceland over the last 4,000?years, also linked to the ITCZ, suggests that elements of this mechanism may also be detectable in the real world. 相似文献
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Climate modification by future ice sheet changes and consequences for ice sheet mass balance 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The future evolution of global ice sheets under anthropogenic greenhouse forcing and its impact on the climate system, including the regional climate of the ice sheets, are investigated with a comprehensive earth system model consisting of a coupled Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model, a dynamic vegetation model and an ice sheet model. The simulated control climate is realistic enough to permit a direct coupling of the atmosphere and ice sheet components, avoiding the use of anomaly coupling, which represents a strong improvement with respect to previous modelling studies. Glacier ablation is calculated with an energy-balance scheme, a more physical approach than the commonly used degree-day method. Modifications of glacier mask, topographic height and freshwater fluxes by the ice sheets influence the atmosphere and ocean via dynamical and thermodynamical processes. Several simulations under idealized scenarios of greenhouse forcing have been performed, where the atmospheric carbon dioxide stabilizes at two and four times pre-industrial levels. The evolution of the climate system and the ice sheets in the simulations with interactive ice sheets is compared with the simulations with passively coupled ice sheets. For a four-times CO2 scenario forcing, a faster decay rate of the Greenland ice sheet is found in the non-interactive case, where melting rates are higher. This is caused by overestimation of the increase in near-surface temperature that follows the reduction in topographic height. In areas close to retreating margins, melting rates are stronger in the interactive case, due to changes in local albedo. Our results call for careful consideration of the feedbacks operating between ice sheets and climate after substantial decay of the ice sheets. 相似文献