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Tomoyuki Takahashi Takeyuki Takahashi Nobuo Shuto Fumihiko Imamura Modesto Ortiz 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,144(3-4):747-767
A source model for the 1993 Hokkaido Nansei-Oki tsunami must satisfy certain conditions. Such conditions are presented in this paper, and two methods are used to determine the best source model for this event. A trial-and-error method selects DCRC-17a as the best among 24 different models. This model has three fault planes dipping westward. To reproduce well the tide gauge records at two locations, an inversion analysis is used to modify the dislocation of DCRC-17a. 相似文献
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Nicholas E. Graham Konstantine P. Georgakakos Carlos Vargas Modesto Echevers 《Advances in water resources》2006
The Panama Canal relies on rain-fed streamflow into Gatun Lake, the canal’s primary storage facility, for operations—principally ship passage and hydropower generation. Precipitation in much of Panama has a strong negative relationship with eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and this relationship is reflected in Gatun Lake inflows. For example, the correlation coefficient between wet season (July–December) inflow and NINO3 SST is −0.53 over the period 1914–1997. Operational capabilities to predict tropical Pacific SSTs have been demonstrated by several forecast systems during the past decade, and (as we show) such SST forecasts can be used to reduce the uncertainty of estimates of future inflows (compared with climatological expectations). Because substantial reductions in lake inflow negatively impact canal operations, we wondered whether these forecasts of future inflows, coupled with a method for translating that information into effective operational policy, might result in more efficient canal management. A combined simulation/optimization/assessment “virtual” canal system was implemented and exercised using operational El Niño forecasts over the period 1981–1998. The results show the following main points:
- (i)
- At current demand levels, the canal system is relatively robust (insensitive to flow forecasts) unless flows are substantially reduced (i.e., during El Niño episodes) or forecasts are extremely accurate. 相似文献
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Juan Morales Avto Goguitchaichvili Bertha A. Aguilar‐Reyes Modesto Pineda Claire Carvallo Laura Beramendi‐Orosco Galia Gonzlez‐Hernndez Arturo Oliveros 《Geoarchaeology》2012,27(6):521-537
We report a detailed rock‐magnetic and archaeointensity analysis of four pottery fragments and a burned floor recovered from the Tzintzuntzan archaeological site in western Mexico. Results from rock‐magnetic experiments (x‐T curves and first‐order reversal curves [FORC] diagrams) indicate the suitability of most of these materials as faithful geomagnetic field recorders. Potsherds were archaeomagnetically dated by comparing their mean intensity values against the paleosecular variation curve CALS3k, suggesting A.D. 600–941 as the most probable age range. This is younger than 14C‐dated charcoal from the same burned floor (A.D. 1294–1426). More precise age estimates will require the use of the full geomagnetic vector (declination, inclination, and intensity). Multiple reheatings of the ceramic pieces, evidenced as secondary components in Zijderveld plots, could reflect multiple heating of these objects, perhaps from use as incense burners. Our study demonstrates the potential of archaeomagnetic analysis to both date burned ceramics recovered in situ and provide insight into their use‐history. 相似文献
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Tsunamis have proven to represent a significant hazard around the globe and there is increased awareness about their occurrence.
The Pacific coast in southern México is no exception, because there is firm evidence of the effects of past large tsunamis.
Here we present results from computer-aided modeling of the March 28, 1787-“San Sixto” earthquake and tsunami, and focus on the regions of Acapulco, Corralero, Jamiltepec, and Tehuantepec, located along the
Guerrero-Oaxaca coast. The theoretical waveforms suggest wave heights in excess of 4 m and 18 m at specific locations in Acapulco
and Corralero, respectively, and wave heights of at least 2 m at locations in Jamiltepec and Tehuantepec. From our modeling
results and based on historical documents and the topography of the area, we conclude that these wave heights would have been
sufficient to cause inundations that in the case of Acapulco were restricted to several meters inland, but in other areas
like Corralero reached at least 6 km inland. Our results are consistent with published and unpublished damage reports that
attest to the hazards associated with great earthquakes and tsunamis along the subduction zone in Mexico 相似文献
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The highly vulnerable Pacific southwest coast of Mexico has been repeatedly affected by local, regional and remote source
tsunamis. Mexico presently has no national tsunami warning system in operation. The implementation of key elements of a National
Program on Tsunami Detection, Monitoring, Warning and Mitigation is in progress. For local and regional events detection and
monitoring, a prototype of a robust and low cost high frequency sea-level tsunami gauge, sampling every minute and equipped
with 24 hours real time transmission to the Internet, was developed and is currently in operation. Statistics allow identification
of low, medium and extreme hazard categories of arriving tsunamis. These categories are used as prototypes for computer simulations
of coastal flooding. A finite-difference numerical model with linear wave theory for the deep ocean propagation, and shallow
water nonlinear one for the near shore and interaction with the coast, and non-fixed boundaries for flooding and recession
at the coast, is used. For prevention purposes, tsunami inundation maps for several coastal communities, are being produced
in this way. The case of the heavily industrialized port of Lázaro Cárdenas, located on the sand shoals of a river delta,
is illustrated; including a detailed vulnerability assessment study. For public education on preparedness and awareness, printed
material for children and adults has been developed and published. It is intended to extend future coverage of this program
to the Mexican Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico coastal areas. 相似文献
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Modesto Pineda Duran Avto Goguitchaichvili Juan Morales Bertha Aguilar Reyes Luis M. Alva Valdivia Arturo Oliveros-Morales Manuel Calvo-Rathert Tomas Gonzalez Moran Jasinto Robles-Camacho 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2010,54(4):575-593
Despite of the impressive cultural heritage and abundant archaeological sites, absolute geomagnetic intensity data from Mesoamerica are still sparse. Archeointensity determinations using the Coe variant of the Thellier and Thellier method have been carried out on some selected pottery fragments from the El Opeño archeological site which has the earliest funeral architecture known in western Mesoamerica. The El Opeño chronology is supported by six C14 datings performed on carbon-bearing materials. Detailed rock magnetic experiments including susceptibility vs. temperature curves, hysteresis cycles and thermal demagnetization procedures were carried out in order to estimate the magnetic carriers and their stability. Cooling rate and anisotropy remanence corrected intensity values range from 25.0 ± 2.3 to 40.2 ± 3.0 μT and corresponding virtual axial dipole moments (VADM) range from 5.6 ± 0.5 to 8.9 ± 0.7 × 1022 Am2. In addition, we present here a new compilation and analysis of existing absolute intensity data in order to try to estimate the variation of the Earth’s magnetic field over the past three millennia. The mean archeointensity obtained in the present study agrees reasonably well with the predicted absolute intensities retrieved from the CALS7K main field model. Other available Mesoamerican data, however, differ from this model. Most of available archeointensity data from Mesoamerica agree reasonably well with the ARCH3K main field model prediction. The broad peak defined at about 50 A.D. by our data is also predicted by the CALS3k.3 main field model but slightly displaced to the right while two smaller peaks are observed on the ARCH3K curve for the same time interval. The intensity value obtained at about 200 B.C. is a clear outlier and thus its geomagnetic significance should be confirmed by further investigations. 相似文献
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