Uncertainty estimation for operational ocean forecast products—a multi-model ensemble for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea     

Inga Golbeck  Xin Li  Frank Janssen  Thorger Brüning  Jacob W. Nielsen  Vibeke Huess  Johan Söderkvist  Bjarne Büchmann  Simo-Matti Siiriä  Olga Vähä-Piikkiö  Bruce Hackett  Nils M. Kristensen  Harald Engedahl  Ed Blockley  Alistair Sellar  Priidik Lagemaa  Jose Ozer  Sebastien Legrand  Patrik Ljungemyr  Lars Axell 《Ocean Dynamics》2015,65(12):1603-1631

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Assimilation of SLA and SST data into an OGCM for the Indian Ocean   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Vibeke E. J. Haugen  Geir Evensen 《Ocean Dynamics》2002,52(3):133-151

 Remotely sensed observations of sea-level anomaly and sea-surface temperature have been assimilated into an implementation of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM) for the Indian Ocean using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The system has been applied in a hindcast validation experiment to examine the properties of the assimilation scheme when used with a full ocean general circulation model and real observations. This work is considered as a first step towards an operational ocean monitoring and forecasting system for the Indian Ocean. The assimilation of real data has demonstrated that the sequential EnKF can efficiently control the model evolution in time. The use of data assimilation requires a significant amount of additional processing and computational resources. However, we have tried to justify the cost of using a sophisticated assimilation scheme by demonstrating strong regional and temporal dependencies of the covariance statistics, which include highly anisotropic and flow-dependent correlation functions. In particular, we observed a marked difference between error statistics in the equatorial region and at off-equatorial latitudes. We have also demonstrated how the assimilation of SLA and SST improves the model fields with respect to real observations. Independent in situ temperature profiles have been used to examine the impact of assimilating the remotely sensed observations. These intercomparisons have shown that the model temperature and salinity fields better resemble in situ observations in the assimilation experiment than in a model free-run case. On the other hand, it is also expected that assimilation of in situ profiles is needed to properly control the deep ocean circulation. Received: 8 January 2002 / Accepted: 8 April 2002  相似文献   

Performance of operational systems with respect to water level forecasts in the Gulf of Finland     

Maria Gästgifvars  Sylvin Müller-Navarra  Lennart Funkquist  Vibeke Huess 《Ocean Dynamics》2008,58(2):139-153

This paper is devoted to the validation of water level forecasts in the Gulf of Finland. Daily forecasts produced by four setups of operational, three-dimensional Baltic Sea oceanographic models are analyzed using statistical means and are compared with water level observations at three Finnish stations located on the northern coast of the Gulf of Finland. The overall conclusion is that the operational systems were skillful in forecasting water level variations during the study period from November 1, 2003, to January 31, 2005. The factors causing differences between the water level forecasts of different models are discussed as well. An important task of operational sea level forecasting services is to provide accurate and early information about extreme water levels, both positive and negative surges. During the study period, two major winter storms occurred which caused coastal flooding in the region. According to our analysis, the operational models forecast the rise of water levels during these events rather successfully. Nowadays, operational forecasts can provide early warnings of extreme water levels at least 1 day in advance, which may be regarded as a minimum requirement for an operational forecasting system. The paper concludes that the models generally performed very well, with over 93% of the hourly water level forecasts found to be within the range of ±15 cm of the observed water levels, and with the timing of the water level peaks accurately predicted. Further discussion and studies dealing with the assessment of the skills of both operational meteorological and oceanographic forecasts, especially in connection with rare surge events, will be necessary. Skill assessment of operational oceanographic models would be relatively easy if acceptable error limits or a quality system was developed for the Baltic Sea operational models.  相似文献   

Mesoscale modeling study of the oceanographic conditions off the southwest coast of India   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Vibeke E. Haugen  Ola M. Johannessen  Geir Evensen 《Journal of Earth System Science》2002,111(3):321-337

A high resolution model, using the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM), has been implemented for the first time to study the seasonal circulation and coastal upwelling off the southwest Indian coast during 1974. This model is part of a model and data assimilation system capable of describing the ocean circulation and variability in the Indian Ocean and its predictability in response to the monsoon system. Along the southwest coast of India the dominant coastal current is the reversing West Indian Coastal Current which is well simulated and described, in addition to the weaker undercurrent of the opposite direction. Upwelling of cold water, 4‡C lower than offshore temperatures appear in April. The upwelling intensifies with the southwest monsoon and is simulated in accordance within situ observations. Upwelling appears to be strongest off Cochin and Quilon, and the upwelling of cold water is seen together with a decrease in salinity in the model simulation.  相似文献   

Hemipelagic deposits on the Mendeleev and northwestern Alpha submarine Ridges in the Arctic Ocean: acoustic stratigraphy,depositional environment and an inter-ridge correlation calibrated by the ACEX results     

Vibeke Bruvoll  Yngve Kristoffersen  Bernard J. Coakley  John R. Hopper 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2010,31(3):149-171

The first high resolution multichannel seismic data from the Mendeleev and Alpha Ridges in the Arctic Ocean have been used to investigate the depositional history, and compare acoustic stratigraphies of the three main sub-marine ridges (Mendeleev, Alpha and Lomonosov) in the polar ocean. Acoustic basement on the Mendeleev Ridge is covered by a ~0.6–0.8 s thick sediment drape over highs and up to 1.8 s within grabens. A pronounced angular discordance at 0.18–0.23 s below the seafloor along the middle to upper slopes divides the succession into an upper, undisturbed, uniformly thick, hemipelagic drape (Unit M1) and a partially truncated lower unit (Unit M2) characterized by strong reflection bands. Unit M2 is thicker in intra-ridge grabens and includes three sub-units with abundant debris flows in the uppermost subunit (M2a). The discordance between Units M1 and M2 most likely relates to instability along the middle to upper slopes and mass wasting, triggered by tectonic activity. The scars were further smoothed by bottom current erosion. We observe comparable acoustic stratigraphy and discordant relationships on the investigated northwestern part of Alpha Ridge. Similarly, on the central Lomonosov Ridge, Paleocene and younger sediments sampled by scientific drilling include an uppermost ~0.2 s thick drape overlying, highly reflective deposits with an angular unconformity confined to the upper slope on both sides of the ridge. Sediment instability on the three main ridges was most likely generated by a brief phase of tectonic activity (~14.5–22 Ma), coinciding with enhanced bottom circulation. These events are coeval with the initial opening of the Fram Strait. The age of the oldest sediments above acoustic basement on the Mendeleev- and west-central Alpha Ridges is estimated to be 70–75 Ma.  相似文献   

Geochemical processes and solute transport at the seawater/freshwater interface of a sandy aquifer   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Martin Søgaard Andersen  Vibeke Nyvang  Rasmus Jakobsen  Dieke Postma 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2005,69(16):3979-3994

Geochemical processes occurring at a seawater/freshwater interface were studied in a shallow coastal siliclastic aquifer containing minor amounts of calcite. Data were collected from 106 piezometers in a 120-m transect from the coastline and landward. In the first 40 m from the coastline, a wedge of saltwater is intruding below the freshwater aquifer. The aquifer is strongly reduced with mineralization of organic matter by methanogenesis in the freshwater aquifer, and sulfate reduction dominating in the most seaward part of the saline aquifer. The spatial separation of cations in the aquifer indicated a slow freshening process where Ca²⁺ from freshwater displaced the marine cations Na⁺ and Mg²⁺ from the exchanger complex. The resulting loss of Ca²⁺ from solution decreases the saturation state for calcite and possibly causes calcite dissolution. A storm-flooding event was recorded where pulses of dense seawater sank through the fresh aquifer. As a result, the terminal electron accepting process switched from methanogenesis to sulfate reduction. The pulses of sinking seawater also triggered cation exchange reactions where Ca²⁺ was expelled from the exchanger by seawater Na⁺ and Mg²⁺. The released Ca²⁺ is being flushed from the aquifer by groundwater flow, and this export of Ca²⁺ will, in the long term, cause decalcification of the sediment. The water composition in the aquifer is in a transient state as the result of various processes that operate on different timescales. Oxidation of organic matter occurs continuously but at a rate decreasing on a geological time scale. The freshening of the aquifer operates on the timescale of a few years. The episodic flooding and sinking of seawater through the aquifer proceeds in the course of days to weeks, but occurs irregularly with years in between.  相似文献