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以ＭＭ４模式为框架,研制并建立了东海近海热带气旋及天气数值预报系统,将对热带气旋的预报和一般天气的预报统一在一个模式中,并实现了业务自动化控制,自１９９４年台风季节起投入了业务试验和准业务的运行。结果表明：该系统对东海近海热带气旋路径、风场、降水及江淮梅雨降水具有较好的预报能力 相似文献
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登陆台风短时定量降水预报方法初探 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2
利用登陆台风的GMS-5 IR1 TBB资料及地面自动站逐时雨量资料,初步建立了适用于登陆台风的定量降水估计(QPE)方法,基于QPE结果,采用外推法,初步实现了对登陆台风未来0~3 h的短时定量降水预报(QPF)。应用于0104号登陆台风“尤特”和0414号登陆台风“云娜”两个例表明:对单站逐小时雨量定量预报而言,如果50%相对误差可以接受,01、、23、h的QPF准确率分别达20%~70%、30%~80%、30%~70%、20%~60%;对于单站过程雨量定量预报而言,如果50%相对误差可以接受,0、1、2、3 h的QPF准确率基本都达60%~80%;对未来0~3 h的面雨量也具有一定定量预报能力。0~3 h QPF结果对实际短时登陆台风降水业务预报工作具有一定的参考价值。 相似文献
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Xiaotu Lei Xuefen Zhang Wansuo Duan Hong Li Zhiqiu Gao Chuanhai Qian Bingke Zhao Jie Tang 《地球科学进展》2019,34(7):671-678
The lack of sufficient direct observation data of typhoon fine structure is the main bottleneck that restricts the further development of typhoon discipline and forecasting. This paper briefly introduced the basic information of the National Key R&D Program of China, entitled “Experiment on Coordinated Observation of Offshore Typhoon in China”, which started in early 2019. Firstly, the importance and necessity of the program around the national needs on typhoon-related disaster reduction and prevention were explained. Then, the coordinated observation difficulties and frontiers in the current typhoon discipline situation from the development and improvement of the physical mechanism and key forecasting technologies were shown. The overview of the direct observation instrument and platform, the field campaign and the parameterization techniques related to physical process in typhoon numerical modeling was provided. Finally, the key scientific and technical issues and main research contents of the program were given. 相似文献
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新一代区域海-气-浪耦合台风预报系统 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
依托国家重点基础研究（973）计划项目"上层海洋对台风的响应和调制机理研究"，中国气象局上海台风研究所联合国家海洋局的相关单位，通过实施近海台风的外场观测科学试验、加强台风边界层（特别是海气相互作用）物理过程诊断分析及参数化方案等的研究，建立并改进了台风强度预报的海-气-浪耦合预报模式系统，并在此基础上发展了台风强度的集合预报技术，在历史典型台风个例和2016-2017年台汛期的业务化测试中表现出良好的预报性能。 相似文献
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非绝热加热对热带气旋径向非均匀结构的影响 总被引：14，自引：2，他引：12
利用平面极坐标系下无摩擦有外源(非绝热加热)的正压无辐散方程,将热带气旋的物理量分解成环境场和扰动,进而求出了热带气旋扰动的行波解,并分析了风场(切向、径向)和重力位势扰动场的径向非均匀松紧结构.表明:这种松紧结构与热带气旋所在纬度的科氏参数(f)、热带气旋的强度(Ω)、热带气旋扰动的圆频率(ω)、热带气旋扰动在θ方向的角波数(m)有关,且不同要素的松紧结构不尽相同;同时还受非绝热加热(Q1)的影响,这种影响主要表现在使风场(切向、径向)呈内紧外松的非均匀分布. 相似文献
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热带气旋的登陆及其与中纬度环流系统相互作用的研究 总被引：36，自引：6，他引：36
热带气旋的主要灾害往往在登陆前后造成，登陆问题是当今热带气旋 研究的重点。热带气旋与中纬度环流系统相互作用，不仅影响热带气旋的结构和强度变化， 也对中纬度地区天气产生重大影响。西风槽强度的变化可使热带气旋的降水突然 增幅３０％。环境场的急剧调整常引起热带气旋运动突变，在弱环境场中，热带气旋的异常运 动与非对称结构关系紧密。中纬度系统对热带气旋的非对称结构有重要影响。另一方面，热 带气旋向极移动过程中携带了大量可供中纬度地区降水的水汽，在气旋性切变的环境场中， 热带气旋还向环境场输送能量，并激发和增强中纬度气旋性环流系统的发展，触发严重的灾 害性天气。热带气旋有时也会截断低纬向中纬度的水汽输送及中纬度波动的能量频散，９５％ 左右的南海热带气旋对梅雨有显著影响，其中约８６％的热带气旋会导致梅雨减弱中断甚至结 束。 相似文献
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Xuwei Bao Dan Wu Xiaotu Lei Leiming Ma Dongliang Wang Kun Zhao Ben Jong-Dao Jou 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2017,31(4):747-766
This study examined the impact of an improved initial field through assimilating ground-based radar data from mainland China and Taiwan Island to simulate the long-lasting and extreme rainfall caused by Morakot (2009). The vortex location and the subsequent track analyzed through the radial velocity data assimilation (VDA) are generally consistent with the best track. The initial humidity within the radar detecting region and Morakot’s northward translation speed can be significantly improved by the radar reflectivity data assimilation (ZDA). As a result, the heavy rainfall on both sides of Taiwan Strait can be reproduced with the joint application of VDA and ZDA. Based on sensitivity experiments, it was found that, without ZDA, the simulated storm underwent an unrealistic inward contraction after 12-h integration, due to underestimation of humidity in the global reanalysis, leading to underestimation of rainfall amount and coverage. Without the vortex relocation via VDA, the moister (drier) initial field with (without) ZDA will produce a more southward (northward) track, so that the rainfall location on both sides of Taiwan Strait will be affected. It was further found that the improvement in the humidity field of Morakot is mainly due to assimilation of high-value reflectivity (strong convection) observed by the radars in Taiwan Island, especially at Kenting station. By analysis of parcel trajectories and calculation of water vapor flux divergence, it was also found that the improved typhoon circulation through assimilating radar data can draw more water vapor from the environment during the subsequent simulation, eventually contributing to the extreme rainfall on both sides of Taiwan Strait. 相似文献
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DYNAMICAL STUDY OF DIABATIC HEATING INFLUENCE ON RADIAL INHOMOGENEOUS STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE* 
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下载免费PDF全文 Based on the tropical cyclone (TC) asymmetric disturbance as the superposition of the symmetric environmental circulation,the analytical solution of travelling wave is given by using the barotropical nondivergent model with diabatic heating forcing and non-friction in a plane polar coordinate.Then,the TC radial inhomogeneous structure is analyzed on radial/tangential velocity and geopotential height.It is found that the different kinds of structures are influenced by the Coriolis parameter (f),TC intensity (Ω),disturbance circular frequency (ω),and TC angular wavenumber (m).And,the diabatic heating (Q1) has significant impacts on the radial/tangential velocity distribution shaped like the inner-tight and outer-relaxed. 相似文献
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台风的发展维持受制于自身(内部结构)及与下垫面间的通量传输过程,利用台风“利奇马”登陆前后的涡动相关仪观测数据,分析台风过境前后地面要素变化及动量通量特征。分析结果表明:台风过境期间,地面气象要素在短时间内出现急剧的变化,动量通量在台风登陆过程中显示出“三峰”的结构,对应的摩擦速度随风速的变化以10 m/s为分界线,低风速下呈现明显的正相关性,高风速时则慢慢转为持平甚至回落;能谱分析中,峰值主要存在于0.000 2 Hz和0.06 Hz的位置上,另有一位于0.001 Hz外的较弱峰值;能量贡献上,大尺度系统占据主导作用,但中尺度对流系统与湍流尺度运动在能量贡献中同样不可忽视。 相似文献