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新一代区域海-气-浪耦合台风预报系统 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
依托国家重点基础研究（973）计划项目"上层海洋对台风的响应和调制机理研究"，中国气象局上海台风研究所联合国家海洋局的相关单位，通过实施近海台风的外场观测科学试验、加强台风边界层（特别是海气相互作用）物理过程诊断分析及参数化方案等的研究，建立并改进了台风强度预报的海-气-浪耦合预报模式系统，并在此基础上发展了台风强度的集合预报技术，在历史典型台风个例和2016-2017年台汛期的业务化测试中表现出良好的预报性能。 相似文献
2.
In this study a coupled air–sea–wave model system, containing the model components of GRAPES-TCM, ECOM-si and WAVEWATCH III, is established based on an air–sea coupled model. The changes of wave state and the effects of sea spray are both considered. Using the complex air–sea–wave model, a set of idealized simulations was applied to investigate the effects of air–sea–wave interaction in the upper ocean. Results show that air–wave coupling can strengthen tropical cyclones while air–sea coupling can weaken them; and air–sea–wave coupling is comparable to that of air–sea coupling, as the intensity is almost unchanged with the wave model coupled to the air–sea coupled model. The mixing by vertical advection is strengthened if the wave effect is considered, and causes much more obvious sea surface temperature (SST) decreases in the upper ocean in the air–sea coupled model. Air–wave coupling strengthens the air–sea heat exchange, while the thermodynamic coupling between the atmosphere and ocean weakens the air–sea heat exchange: the air–sea–wave coupling is the result of their balance. The wave field distribution characteristic is determined by the wind field. Experiments are also conducted to simulate ocean responses to different mixed layer depths. With increasing depth of the initial mixed layer, the decrease of SST weakens, but the temperature decrease of deeper layers is enhanced and the loss of heat in the upper ocean is increased. The significant wave height is larger when the initial mixed layer depth increases. 相似文献
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Erratum to: Numerical simulation of changes in tropical cyclone intensity using a coupled air-sea model 
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下载免费PDF全文 正Erratum to:Acta Meteor Sinica DOI 10.1007/sl3351-013-0506-z The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake.The presentation of DOI number was incorrect.The corrected DOI number is 10.1007/sl3351-013-0503-2 相似文献
4.
登陆华南热带气旋强度变化与大尺度环流的关系 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
应用UK再分析资料,采用合成分析方法,对比分析了登陆华南的登陆前迅速增强的TC（Rapid Intensifying TC,简称RITC）和迅速减弱的TC（Rapid FillingTC,简称RFTC）登陆前24h的大尺度环流背景特征。结果表明：从外流、入流强度和范围上看,RITC的低空入流和高空外流均明显强于RFTC,两类TC高空外流强度的差异比低空入流明显,RITC的次级环流径向范围大;从外流垂直伸展高度上看,RITC的平均外流主要集中在500hPa以上,而RFFC的平均外流比较分散,向下伸展到850hPa;从高空流场配置看,RITC上空除西北象限外均有较强外流,而RVrC仅在东北象限有较强外流,相应的RITC和RVrC的高空辐散在范围和强度上均有明显的差异,其中RITC的高空辐散明显强于RFTC;强烈的西南季风水汽输送是登陆华南的TC登陆前突然加强的先兆条件,RITC的对流活动明显比RFTc活跃;RITC的纬向风垂直切变比RFTC小,有利于RITC的强度增强。 相似文献
5.
Intensity variation of tropical cyclones(TCs),especially that of coastal or landfalling TCs,is of great concern in current research.Most of the research papers,however,focus on intensification processes of TCs;only a few discuss decay processes in the lifetime of a TC.In the daily weather operation related to TCs,it is challenging when a TC weakens and/or disappears suddenly,because it brings more difficulties than the forecast of intensifying TCs does.Overestimation of a decaying landfalling TC would lead to over-preparation of defensive measures and result in"crying wolf"mentality with adverse effects.This study summarized physical mechanisms that dominate the decaying process of TCs and listed several possible dynamical factors:reduced level of air temperature,too large or too small speed,contraction of TC size amplification of TC’s core,and lightning number in a TC. 相似文献
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一个区域海-气耦合模式的建立:模式验证及其对热带气旋“云娜”的模拟 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
本文以区域热带气旋模式(GRAPES-TCM)为基础,引入海洋环流模式(Estuarine,Coastal and Ocean Model(semi-implicit),ECOM-si)和Ocean Atmosphere Sea Ice Soil 3(OASIS3)耦合器,建立了一个区域海-气耦合模式。利用该模式对0414号热带气旋"云娜"进行了数值模拟,验证了模式的性能。结果表明,耦合模式模拟的"云娜"强度相比单独的大气模式更接近观测,单独大气模式模拟的近地面风场偏强,而耦合模式模拟的近地面风场的强度和非对称结构均与观测更为接近。数值实验中,"云娜"热带气旋过境引起的海表面温度的下降与实况接近,海表面温度下降引起的海-气热通量相比控制实验的结果明显下降,分析资料表明这一下降是合理的。海洋模式的引入导致了热带气旋"云娜"结构的变化,这种变化不但反应在径向风的减弱(强度下降),还反应在对流强度和最强对流发生位置的变化,并最终引起了热带气旋降水结构的改变。 相似文献
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1 INTRODUCTION Sudden changes in the intensity of the tropical cyclone (TC) are a difficult issue to be tackled. Few of the previous works dealt with the characteristics of large-scale circulation background of TCs that experience sudden intensity changes prior to landfall. Studies that do address the issue are only case-based, which do not isolate large-scale circulation background common to all cases, whether it be favorable or not. By diagnostically studying large-scale characteristic… 相似文献
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基于政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)排放情景特别报告(SRES)A2和B2温室气体排放方案下全球海气耦合模式模拟结果,分析了未来半个世纪中国江淮流域夏季降水变化趋势,发现江淮流域在经历21世纪开始10年降水偏多时期后,从2010年开始该地区将经历一段降水偏少的时期,在温室气体和SO2排放量较多的A2方案下,该时期将维持较长时间.这些地区夏季降水的减少与夏季西北太平洋副热带高压环流的减弱东撤有关,由此伴随这些地区夏季风和对流层中大气上升运动的减弱,而西北太平洋副热带高压环流的减弱东撤与北太平洋海表面南高北低的温度梯度的减小有关. 相似文献
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华北夏季降水与北半球环流及北太平洋海温关系的初步分析 总被引：10，自引：1，他引：10
在利用基于Z指数的判别方法确定华北地区严重旱涝年份的基础上，应用合成分析方法研究了严重旱涝年的环流形势并初步分析了华北夏季旱涝的成因。然后用相关分析研究方法找出了与华北地区夏季降水关系密切的海温关键区，即赤道中东太平洋地区和北太平洋中高纬地区。利用大气环流模式进行数值试验，进一步研究了两个区域海温影响华北降水的地理机制和相对重要性，得到了一些有意义的结果。最后初步探讨了影响华北夏季降水异常的可能物理机制。 相似文献
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