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1.
Many methods can be used to test alternative ground water models. Of concern in this work are methods able to (1) rank alternative models (also called model discrimination) and (2) identify observations important to parameter estimates and predictions (equivalent to the purpose served by some types of sensitivity analysis). Some of the measures investigated are computationally efficient; others are computationally demanding. The latter are generally needed to account for model nonlinearity. The efficient model discrimination methods investigated include the information criteria: the corrected Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and generalized cross-validation. The efficient sensitivity analysis measures used are dimensionless scaled sensitivity (DSS), composite scaled sensitivity, and parameter correlation coefficient (PCC); the other statistics are DFBETAS, Cook's D, and observation-prediction statistic. Acronyms are explained in the introduction. Cross-validation (CV) is a computationally intensive nonlinear method that is used for both model discrimination and sensitivity analysis. The methods are tested using up to five alternative parsimoniously constructed models of the ground water system of the Maggia Valley in southern Switzerland. The alternative models differ in their representation of hydraulic conductivity. A new method for graphically representing CV and sensitivity analysis results for complex models is presented and used to evaluate the utility of the efficient statistics. The results indicate that for model selection, the information criteria produce similar results at much smaller computational cost than CV. For identifying important observations, the only obviously inferior linear measure is DSS; the poor performance was expected because DSS does not include the effects of parameter correlation and PCC reveals large parameter correlations. 相似文献
2.
Tumbling asteroids 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
P. Pravec A.W. Harris P. Kušnirák C.W. Hergenrother M.D. Hicks Yu.N. Krugly M.C. Nolan M. Kaasalainen P. Brown J.V. Lambert S. Foglia 《Icarus》2005,173(1):108-131
We present both a review of earlier data and new results on non-principal axis rotators (tumblers) among asteroids. Among new tumblers found, the best data we have are for 2002 TD60, 2000 WL107, and (54789) 2001 MZ7—each of them shows a lightcurve with two frequencies (full terms with linear combinations of the two frequencies are present in the lightcurve). For 2002 TD60, we have constructed a physical model of the NPA rotation. Other recent objects which have been found to be likely tumblers based on their lightcurves that do not fit with a single periodicity are 2002 NY40, (16067) 1999 RH27, and (5645) 1990 SP. We have done a statistical analysis of the present sample of the population of NPA rotators. It appears that most asteroids larger than ∼0.4 km with estimated damping timescales (Harris, 1994, Icarus 107, 209) of 4.5 byr and longer are NPA rotators. The statistic of two short-period tumblers (D=0.04 and 0.4 km) with non-zero tensile strength suggests that for them the quantity μQ/T, where μ is the mechanical rigidity, Q is the elastic dissipation factor, and T is a spin excitation age (i.e., a time elapsed since the last significant spin excitation event), is greater by two to four orders of magnitude than the larger, likely rubble-pile tumblers. Among observational conditions and selection effects affecting detections of NPA rotations, there is a bias against detection of low-amplitude (small elongation) tumblers. 相似文献
3.
Chelli Stefano Maponi Pierluigi Campetella Giandiego Monteverde Paolo Foglia Monica Paris Eleonora Lolis Andreas Panagopoulos Thomas 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(2):1795-1810
Natural Hazards - The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is one of the most used tools to forecast forest fire hazard. In this paper, we propose an adaptation of the FWI to take into account the... 相似文献
4.
Islam Md Bayzidul Firoz A. B. M. Foglia Laura Marandi Andres Khan Abidur Rahman Schüth Christoph Ribbe Lars 《Hydrogeology Journal》2017,25(3):617-637
The water resources that supply most of the megacities in the world are under increased pressure because of land transformation, population growth, rapid urbanization, and climate-change impacts. Dhaka, in Bangladesh, is one of the largest of 22 growing megacities in the world, and it depends on mainly groundwater for all kinds of water needs. The regional groundwater-flow model MODFLOW-2005 was used to simulate the interaction between aquifers and rivers in steady-state and transient conditions during the period 1981–2013, to assess the impact of development and climate change on the regional groundwater resources. Detailed hydro-stratigraphic units are described according to 150 lithology logs, and a three-dimensional model of the upper 400 m of the Greater Dhaka area was constructed. The results explain how the total abstraction (2.9 million m3/d) in the Dhaka megacity, which has caused regional cones of depression, is balanced by recharge and induced river leakage. The simulated outcome shows the general trend of groundwater flow in the sedimentary Holocene aquifers under a variety of hydrogeological conditions, which will assist in the future development of a rational and sustainable management approach.
相似文献5.
Robert Reinecke Alexander Wachholz Steffen Mehl Laura Foglia Christoph Niemann Petra Döll 《Ground water》2020,58(3):363-376
Global-scale gradient-based groundwater models are a new endeavor for hydrologists who wish to improve global hydrological models (GHMs). In particular, the integration of such groundwater models into GHMs improves the simulation of water flows between surface water and groundwater and of capillary rise and thus evapotranspiration. Currently, these models are not able to simulate water table depth adequately over the entire globe. Unsatisfactory model performance compared to well observations suggests that a higher spatial resolution is required to better represent the high spatial variability of land surface and groundwater elevations. In this study, we use New Zealand as a testbed and analyze the impacts of spatial resolution on the results of global groundwater models. Steady-state hydraulic heads simulated by two versions of the global groundwater model G3M, at spatial resolutions of 5 arc-minutes (9 km) and 30 arc-seconds (900 m), are compared with observations from the Canterbury region. The output of three other groundwater models with different spatial resolutions is analyzed as well. Considering the spatial distribution of residuals, general patterns of unsatisfactory model performance remain at the higher resolutions, suggesting that an increase in model resolution alone does not fix problems such as the systematic overestimation of hydraulic head. We conclude that (1) a new understanding of how low-resolution global groundwater models can be evaluated is required, and (2) merely increasing the spatial resolution of global-scale groundwater models will not improve the simulation of the global freshwater system. 相似文献
6.
Conservative tracer experiments can provide information useful for characterizing various subsurface transport properties. This study examines the effectiveness of three different types of transport observations for sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation of a three-dimensional site-specific groundwater flow and transport model: conservative tracer breakthrough curves (BTCs), first temporal moments of BTCs (m 1), and tracer cumulative mass discharge (M d) through control planes combined with hydraulic head observations (h). High-resolution data obtained from a 410-day controlled field experiment at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California (USA), have been used. In this experiment, bromide was injected to create two adjacent plumes monitored at six different transects (perpendicular to groundwater flow) with a total of 162 monitoring wells. A total of 133 different observations of transient hydraulic head, 1,158 of BTC concentration, 23 of first moment, and 36 of mass discharge were used for sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation of nine flow and transport parameters. The importance of each group of transport observations in estimating these parameters was evaluated using sensitivity analysis, and five out of nine parameters were calibrated against these data. Results showed the advantages of using temporal moment of conservative tracer BTCs and mass discharge as observations for inverse modeling. 相似文献
7.
Mary C. Hill Dmitri Kavetski Martyn Clark Ming Ye Mazdak Arabi Dan Lu Laura Foglia Steffen Mehl 《Ground water》2016,54(2):159-170
Three challenges compromise the utility of mathematical models of groundwater and other environmental systems: (1) a dizzying array of model analysis methods and metrics make it difficult to compare evaluations of model adequacy, sensitivity, and uncertainty; (2) the high computational demands of many popular model analysis methods (requiring 1000's, 10,000 s, or more model runs) make them difficult to apply to complex models; and (3) many models are plagued by unrealistic nonlinearities arising from the numerical model formulation and implementation. This study proposes a strategy to address these challenges through a careful combination of model analysis and implementation methods. In this strategy, computationally frugal model analysis methods (often requiring a few dozen parallelizable model runs) play a major role, and computationally demanding methods are used for problems where (relatively) inexpensive diagnostics suggest the frugal methods are unreliable. We also argue in favor of detecting and, where possible, eliminating unrealistic model nonlinearities—this increases the realism of the model itself and facilitates the application of frugal methods. Literature examples are used to demonstrate the use of frugal methods and associated diagnostics. We suggest that the strategy proposed in this paper would allow the environmental sciences community to achieve greater transparency and falsifiability of environmental models, and obtain greater scientific insight from ongoing and future modeling efforts. 相似文献
8.
In this work, we provide suggestions for designing experiments where calibration of many models is required and guidance for identifying problematic calibrations. Calibration of many conceptual models which have different representations of the physical processes in the system, as is done in cross‐validation studies or multi‐model analysis, often uses computationally frugal inversion techniques to achieve tractable execution times. However, because these frugal methods are usually local methods, and the inverse problem is almost always nonlinear, there is no guarantee that the optimal solution will be found. Furthermore, evaluation of each inverse model's performance to identify poor calibrations can be tedious. Results of this study show that if poorly calibrated models are included in the analysis, simulated predictions and measures of prediction uncertainty can be affected in unexpected ways. Guidelines are provided to help identify problematic regressions and correct them. 相似文献
9.
This paper aims at finding force-displacement relationships to be employed in the design of bucket foundations for offshore wind turbine. This is accomplished by combining small-scale tests and element tests within a theoretical framework. A similitude theory, regarding the lateral displacement of bucket foundations under horizontal load, is put forward. A constitutive law of the soil and a load-displacement relationship for the bucket foundation are theoretically obtained. Triaxial tests of sand, and small-scale tests of bucket foundation, are respectively employed to corroborate the theory. Attention is given to the different behaviour shown during the compressive and dilative phases of the soil. Some analogy between triaxial tests and tests of bucket foundation are pointed out. A theoretically derived power law is found capable to represent the dimensionless horizontal load-displacement curves of experimental results. In accordance with the theory, the exponent of the power law slightly varies between tests with considerably different features. The non-dimensional moment-rotation relationship is represented by a power law as well. The approach is considered valid for fatigue design. The study may be an interesting source for further researches on long-term cyclic horizontal loading. 相似文献
10.
Giovanna De Filippis Laura Foglia Mauro Giudici Steffen Mehl Stefano Margiotta Sergio L. Negri 《Hydrogeology Journal》2017,25(7):2123-2138
The evaluation of the accuracy or reasonableness of numerical models of groundwater flow is a complex task, due to the uncertainties in hydrodynamic properties and boundary conditions and the scarcity of good-quality field data. To assess model reliability, different calibration techniques are joined to evaluate the effects of different kinds of boundary conditions on the groundwater flow in a coastal multi-layered aquifer in southern Italy. In particular, both direct and indirect approaches for inverse modeling were joined through the calibration of one of the most uncertain parameters, namely the hydraulic conductivity of the karst deep hydrostratigraphic unit. The methodology proposed here, and applied to a real case study, confirmed that the selection of boundary conditions is among the most critical and difficult aspects of the characterization of a groundwater system for conceptual analysis or numerical simulation. The practical tests conducted in this study show that incorrect specification of boundary conditions prevents an acceptable match between the model response to the hydraulic stresses and the behavior of the natural system. Such effects have a negative impact on the applicability of numerical modeling to simulate groundwater dynamics in complex hydrogeological situations. This is particularly important for management of the aquifer system investigated in this work, which represents the only available freshwater resource of the study area, and is threatened by overexploitation and saltwater intrusion. 相似文献