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1.
Laura Sandri Gill Jolly Jan Lindsay Tracy Howe Warner Marzocchi 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(3):705-723
By using BET_VH, we propose a quantitative probabilistic hazard assessment for base surge impact in Auckland, New Zealand.
Base surges resulting from phreatomagmatic eruptions are among the most dangerous phenomena likely to be associated with the
initial phase of a future eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field. The assessment is done both in the long-term and in a specific
short-term case study, i.e. the simulated pre-eruptive unrest episode during Exercise Ruaumoko, a national civil defence exercise.
The most important factors to account for are the uncertainties in the vent location (expected for a volcanic field) and in
the run-out distance of base surges. Here, we propose a statistical model of base surge run-out distance based on deposits
from past eruptions in Auckland and in analogous volcanoes. We then combine our hazard assessment with an analysis of the
costs and benefits of evacuating people (on a 1 × 1-km cell grid). In addition to stressing the practical importance of a
cost-benefit analysis in creating a bridge between volcanologists and decision makers, our study highlights some important
points. First, in the Exercise Ruaumoko application, the evacuation call seems to be required as soon as the unrest phase
is clear; additionally, the evacuation area is much larger than what is recommended in the current contingency plan. Secondly,
the evacuation area changes in size with time, due to a reduction in the uncertainty in the vent location and increase in
the probability of eruption. It is the tradeoff between these two factors that dictates which cells must be evacuated, and
when, thus determining the ultimate size and shape of the area to be evacuated. 相似文献
2.
BET_VH: exploring the influence of natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei (Italy) 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Jacopo Selva Antonio Costa Warner Marzocchi Laura Sandri 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2010,72(6):717-733
In this paper, we explore the effects of the intrinsic uncertainties upon long-term volcanic hazard by analyzing tephra fall
hazard at Campi Flegrei, Italy, using the BET_VH model described in Marzocchi et al. (Bull Volcanol, 2010). The results obtained show that volcanic hazard based on the weighted average of all possible eruptive settings (i.e. size
classes and vent locations) is significantly different from an analysis based on a single reference setting, as commonly used
in volcanic hazard practice. The long-term hazard map for tephra fall at Campi Flegrei obtained here accounts for a wide spectrum
of uncertainties which are usually neglected, largely reducing the bias intrinsically introduced by the choice of a specific
reference setting. We formally develop and apply a general method to recursively integrate simulations from different models
which have different characteristics in terms of spatial coverage, resolution and physical details. This outcome of simulations
will be eventually merged with field data through the use of the BET_VH model. 相似文献
3.
A Bayesian procedure for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
In this paper, a Bayesian procedure is implemented for the Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA). The approach is general
and modular incorporating all significant information relevant for the hazard assessment, such as theoretical and empirical
background, analytical or numerical models, instrumental and historical data. The procedure provides the posterior probability distribution that integrates the prior probability distribution based on the physical knowledge of the process
and the likelihood based on the historical data. Also, the method deals with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties incorporating
in a formal way all sources of relevant uncertainty, from the tsunami generation process to the wave propagation and impact
on the coasts. The modular structure of the procedure is flexible and easy to modify and/or update as long as new models and/or
information are available. Finally, the procedure is applied to an hypothetical region, Neverland, to clarify the PTHA evaluation in a realistic case. 相似文献
4.
Grezio Anita Laura Sandri Warner Marzocchi Andrea Argnani Paolo Gasparini Jacopo Selva 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(1):329-358
The general modular Bayesian procedure is applied to provide a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for the Messina Strait Area (MSA), Italy. This is the first study in an Italian area where the potential tsunamigenic events caused by both submarine seismic sources (SSSs) and submarine mass failures (SMFs) are examined in a probabilistic assessment. The SSSs are localized on active faults in MSA as indicated by the instrumental data of the catalogue of the Italian seismicity; the SMFs are spatially identified using their propensity to failure in the Ionian and Tyrrhenian Seas on the basis of mean slope and mean depth, and using marine geology background knowledge. In both cases the associated probability of occurrence is provided. The run-ups were calculated at key sites that are main cities and/or important sites along the Eastern Sicily and the Southern Calabria coasts where tsunami events were recorded in the past. The posterior probability distribution combines the prior probability and the likelihood calculated in the MSA. The prior probability is based on the physical model of the tsunami process, and the likelihood is based on the historical data collected by the historical catalogues, background knowledge, and marine geological information. The posterior SSSs and SMFs tsunami probabilities are comparable and are combined to produce a final probability for a full PTHA in MSA. 相似文献
5.
Jacopo?SelvaEmail author Giovanni?Orsi Mauro?Antonio?Di Vito Warner?Marzocchi Laura?Sandri 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(2):497-510
The Campi Flegrei caldera is a restless structure affected by general subsidence and ongoing resurgence of its central part.
The persistent activity of the system and the explosive character of the volcanism lead to a very high volcanic hazard that,
combined with intense urbanization, corresponds to a very high volcanic risk. One of the largest sources of uncertainty in
volcanic hazard/risk assessment for Campi Flegrei is the spatial location of the future volcanic activity. This paper presents
and discusses a long-term probability hazard map for vent opening in case of renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera,
which shows the spatial conditional probability for the next vent opening, given that an eruption occurs. The map has been
constructed by building a Bayesian inference scheme merging prior information and past data. The method allows both aleatory
and epistemic uncertainties to be evaluated. The probability map of vent opening shows that two areas of relatively high probability
are present within the active portion of the caldera, with a probability approximately doubled with respect to the rest of
the caldera. The map has an immediate use in evaluating the areas of the caldera prone to the highest volcanic hazard. Furthermore,
it represents an important ingredient in addressing the more general problem of quantitative volcanic hazards assessment at
the Campi Flegrei caldera. 相似文献
6.
Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru) 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Laura Sandri Jean-Claude Thouret Robert Constantinescu Sébastien Biass Roberto Tonini 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2014,76(2):1-26
We propose a long-term probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for El Misti Volcano, a composite cone located <20 km from Arequipa. The second largest Peruvian city is a rapidly expanding economic centre and is classified by UNESCO as World Heritage. We apply the Bayesian Event Tree code for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH) to produce probabilistic hazard maps for the predominant volcanic phenomena that may affect c.900,000 people living around the volcano. The methodology accounts for the natural variability displayed by volcanoes in their eruptive behaviour, such as different types/sizes of eruptions and possible vent locations. For this purpose, we treat probabilistically several model runs for some of the main hazardous phenomena (lahars, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), tephra fall and ballistic ejecta) and data from past eruptions at El Misti (tephra fall, PDCs and lahars) and at other volcanoes (PDCs). The hazard maps, although neglecting possible interactions among phenomena or cascade effects, have been produced with a homogeneous method and refer to a common time window of 1 year. The probability maps reveal that only the north and east suburbs of Arequipa are exposed to all volcanic threats except for ballistic ejecta, which are limited to the uninhabited but touristic summit cone. The probability for pyroclastic density currents reaching recently expanding urban areas and the city along ravines is around 0.05 %/year, similar to the probability obtained for roof-critical tephra loading during the rainy season. Lahars represent by far the most probable threat (around 10 %/year) because at least four radial drainage channels can convey them approximately 20 km away from the volcano across the entire city area in heavy rain episodes, even without eruption. The Río Chili Valley represents the major concern to city safety owing to the probable cascading effect of combined threats: PDCs and rockslides, dammed lake break-outs and subsequent lahars or floods. Although this study does not intend to replace the current El Misti hazard map, the quantitative results of this probabilistic multi-hazard assessment can be incorporated into a multi-risk analysis, to support decision makers in any future improvement of the current hazard evaluation, such as further land-use planning and possible emergency management. 相似文献
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9.
Jan Lindsay Warner Marzocchi Gill Jolly Robert Constantinescu Jacopo Selva Laura Sandri 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2010,72(2):185-204
The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) is a young basaltic field that lies beneath the urban area of Auckland, New Zealand’s largest
city. Over the past 250,000 years the AVF has produced at least 49 basaltic centers; the last eruption was only 600 years
ago. In recognition of the high risk associated with a possible future eruption in Auckland, the New Zealand government ran
Exercise Ruaumoko in March 2008, a test of New Zealand’s nation-wide preparedness for responding to a major disaster resulting from a volcanic
eruption in Auckland City. The exercise scenario was developed in secret, and covered the period of precursory activity up
until the eruption. During Exercise Ruaumoko we adapted a recently developed statistical code for eruption forecasting, namely
BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting), to independently track the unrest evolution and to forecast the most
likely onset time, location and style of the initial phase of the simulated eruption. The code was set up before the start
of the exercise by entering reliable information on the past history of the AVF as well as the monitoring signals expected
in the event of magmatic unrest and an impending eruption. The average probabilities calculated by BET_EF during Exercise
Ruaumoko corresponded well to the probabilities subjectively (and independently) estimated by the advising scientists (differences
of few percentage units), and provided a sound forecast of the timing (before the event, the eruption probability reached
90%) and location of the eruption. This application of BET_EF to a volcanic field that has experienced no historical activity
and for which otherwise limited prior information is available shows its versatility and potential usefulness as a tool to
aid decision-making for a wide range of volcano types. Our near real-time application of BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko highlighted
its potential to clarify and possibly optimize decision-making procedures in a future AVF eruption crisis, and as a rational
starting point for discussions in a scientific advisory group. It also stimulated valuable scientific discussion around how
a future AVF eruption might progress, and highlighted areas of future volcanological research that would reduce epistemic
uncertainties through the development of better input models. 相似文献
10.
In this paper, we illustrate a Bayesian Event Tree to estimate Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH). The procedure enables us to calculate
the probability of any kind of long-term hazardous event for which we are interested, accounting for the intrinsic stochastic
nature of volcanic eruptions and our limited knowledge regarding related processes. For the input, the code incorporates results
from numerical models simulating the impact of hazardous volcanic phenomena on an area and data from the eruptive history.
For the output, the code provides a wide and exhaustive set of spatiotemporal probabilities of different events; these probabilities
are estimated by means of a Bayesian approach that allows all uncertainties to be properly accounted for. The code is able
to deal with many eruptive settings simultaneously, weighting each with its own probability of occurrence. In a companion
paper, we give a detailed example of application of this tool to the Campi Flegrei caldera, in order to estimate the hazard
from tephra fall. 相似文献