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Bayesian analysis of stage–fall–discharge models for gauging stations affected by variable backwater
Parsimonious stage–fall–discharge rating curve models for gauging stations subject to backwater complications are developed from simple hydraulic theory. The rating curve models are compounded in order to allow for possible shifts in the hydraulics when variable backwater becomes effective. The models provide a prior scientific understanding through the relationship between the rating curve parameters and the hydraulic properties of the channel section under study. This characteristic enables prior distributions for the rating curve parameters to be easily elicited according to site‐specific information and the magnitude of well‐known hydraulic quantities. Posterior results from three Norwegian and one American twin‐gauge stations affected by variable backwater are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The case studies demonstrate that the proposed Bayesian rating curve assessment is appropriate for developing rating procedures for gauging stations that are subject to variable backwater. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Trond Reitan Asgeir Petersen-Øverleir 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2008,22(3):351-365
This paper presents a Bayesian approach for fitting the standard power-law rating curve model to a set of stage-discharge
measurements. Methods for eliciting both regional and at-site prior information, and issues concerning the determination of
prior forms, are discussed. An efficient MCMC algorithm for the specific problem is derived. The appropriateness of the proposed
method is demonstrated by applying the model to both simulated and real-life data. However, some problems came to light in
the applications, and these are discussed. 相似文献
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Trond Reitan Asgeir Petersen-Øverleir 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(5):627-642
This study explores Bayesian methods for handling compound stage–discharge relationships, a problem which arises in many natural
rivers. It is assumed: (1) the stage–discharge relationship in each rating curve segment is a power-law with a location parameter,
or zero-plane displacement; (2) the segment transitions are abrupt and continuous; and (3) multiplicative measurement errors
are of equal variance. The rating curve fitting procedure is then formulated as a piecewise regression problem where the number
of segments and the associated changepoints are assumed unknown. Procedures are developed for describing both global and site-specific
prior distributions for all rating curve parameters, including the changepoints. Estimation and uncertainty analysis is evaluated
using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) techniques. The first model explored accounts for parameter and model uncertainties
in the interpolated area, i.e. within the range of available stage–discharge measurements. A second model is constructed in
an attempt to include the uncertainty in extrapolation, which is necessary when the rating curve is used to estimate discharges
beyond the highest or lowest measurement. This is done by assuming that the rate of changepoints both inside and outside the
measured area follows a Poisson process. The theory is applied to actual data from Norwegian gauging stations. The MCMC solutions
give results that appear sensible and useful for inferential purposes, though the latter model needs further efforts in order
to obtain a more efficient simulation scheme. 相似文献
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Asgeir Sorteberg Øystein Hov Sverre Solberg Kjetil Tørseth Hans Areskoug Martin Ferm Kit Granby Heikki Lättilä Karin Persson David Simpson 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1998,30(2):241-271
Observations of the concentration of several nitrogen containing compounds at five rural Scandinavian sites during March–June 1993 are reported. Total nitrate (NO
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+ HNO3) and total ammonium (NH
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+ NH3) were measured by denuder and filter pack. In general the methods agree well. At all sites the particulate fraction dominated, with the largest fraction of NO
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and the lowest of NH
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at the sites which were closest to the emission sources. The fraction of NO
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of total nitrate increased with increasing NO2 concentrations, indicating that the nighttime conversion of NO2 to NO
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is an important route of formation for NO
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. A positive correlation was found between HNO3 and O3 in June at all sites, while no correlation was found early in the spring. Model calculations were made with a lagrangian boundary layer photooxidant model for the whole period, and compared to the measured concentrations. The calculated ratio between mean observed and modelled daily maximum concentrations of ozone over the measurement period were within +/–10% at all sites. The models ability to describe the daily ozone maximum concentration was satisfactory with an average deviation of 19–22% from the observed concentrations. HNO3 was underestimated by over 50% at all sites except the one closest to the emission sources. The correlation between modelled and observed concentrations was generally best for the sites with shortest transport distance from the sources of emission. 相似文献
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Asgeir Brekke 《Planetary and Space Science》1973,21(4):698-702
In a recent paper, Brekke and Pettersen (1972) have introduced a method for estimating any indirect process in the production of the ) atoms in pulsating aurora; for 38 per cent of their data they found that the decay time for the indirect mechanism was shorter than the effective lifetime of the state. These data are related to the energy transfer from the N2(A3Σ) molecules to the state, and evidence is found for this process to contribute in the altitude range below 125 km. 相似文献
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Recent drought and precipitation tendencies in Ethiopia 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Ellen Viste Diriba Korecha Asgeir Sorteberg 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,112(3-4):535-551
In 2011, drought in the Horn of Africa again made news headlines. This study aims to quantify the meteorological component of this and other drought episodes in Ethiopia since 1971. A monthly precipitation data set for 14 homogeneous rainfall zones was constructed based on 174 gauges, and the standardized precipitation index was calculated on seasonal, annual, and biannual time scales. The results point to 2009 as a year of exceptionally widespread drought. All zones experienced drought at the annual scale, although in most zones, previous droughts were more extreme. Nationally, 2009 was the second driest year, surpassed only by the historic year 1984. Linear regression analysis indicates a precipitation decline in southern Ethiopia, during both February–May and June–September. In central and northern Ethiopia, the analysis did not provide evidence of similar tendencies. However, spring droughts have occurred more frequently in all parts of Ethiopia during the last 10–15 years. 相似文献
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øystein Hov Asgeir Sorteberg Norbert Schmidbauer Sverre Solberg Frode Stordal David Simpson Anne Lindskog Hans Areskoug Pedro Oyola Heikki Lättilä Niels Z. Heidam 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1997,28(1-3):173-193
Observations and model calculations of the concentration of hydrocarbonsat five Scandinavian rural sites during March–June 1993are reported.Decreasing concentrations from March to June are observedat all sites. The highest concentrations of hydrocarbons were found in air massescoming in from the southwest to southeast, indicating that long rangetransport fromcontinental Europe and the U.K. is important in pollution episodes. An episode of elevated concentrations of hydrocarbons observed at three of the sites in the middle of Marchis described and discussed in relation to the synoptic situation and thepresenceof other chemical compounds (NO2, PAN, total nitrate andozone).A Lagrangian numerical model is used to calculate the concentrations of theindividual hydrocarbons at the fivesites and comparison with observations is made.The calculated concentrations for nonmethane hydrocarbons with quite longchemicallifetimes agree well with the observations.For the sum of observed and calculated hydrocarbons the correlationcoefficientsare in the range of 0.65–0.88 for the five sitesand the ratio between calculated and measured concentrations was0.72–0.97, indicating thatthe European VOC emission inventory is quite well estimated. 相似文献