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本文采用阿勒泰地区7个国家级气象站近54a(1960～2013年)夏季(6～8月)的日有效降水量（20～20h降水量≥0.1mm）资料,用WMO推荐的百分位法计算了全地区过去54a夏季极端强降水的阈值、进一步分析了当地夏季时空分布特征及变化趋势,结果表明：阿勒泰地区夏季极端强降水阈值呈西部、南部小,北部、东部大,并且空间异常分布特征如下: 夏季以及夏季各月的极端强降水日数和强度均可总结出5种最主要模型;极端强降水量可总结出8种最主要模型;并且通过时间标准化序列分析各种模型都有对应的降水日数、量级、强度明显偏多（强）和偏少（弱）的时段。日数、量级、强度近54a来,除吉木乃略有下降以外,其余各县（市）均为增长趋势,尤其是北部、东部地区.同时上述三指标存在着显著的年代际和年纪尺度的周期变化,上世纪90年代和2010年至今为三个指标最多(强)的年代,而上世纪70年代为最少（最差）的年代.并通过周期分析（小波分析）可知,均有对应的显著变化周期。 相似文献
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利用主被动微波数据联合反演土壤水分 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
在黑河中游干旱区水文试验的基础上,以临泽站为研究区域,探讨主被动微波数据联合反演土壤水分的方法。针对ALOS/PALSAR数据,使用AIEM理论模型计算地表的同极化后向散射系数,Oh半经验模型描述交叉极化散射特征,通过对大量后向散射模拟数据的分析,建立裸露地表粗糙度计算模型;利用模拟数据分析地表辐射亮温随土壤水分和粗糙度的变化规律,在此基础上构建NN模型结合粗糙度计算结果和辐射计飞行数据反演研究区域的土壤水分。地面同步测量数据的验证结果表明,该方法充分发挥了主被动微波数据各自的优势,同时避免了主被动协同过程中的尺度问题,为流域尺度的土壤水分监测提供了一种新的有效途径。 相似文献
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Environmental migration is a topic which has given rise to widespread debate and gloomy predictions about the state of the world in 2050, but where rigorous research and empirical evidence are unfortunately in short supply. In this paper, we review the existing research on and empirical evidence of how climate change and climate variability in Less Developed Countries (LDCs) affects two main drivers of migration identified by migration models in the economic literature, namely income level differentials between origin and destination areas and income variability in origin areas, and how they in turn affect migration. We find that there are serious gaps in both the economic and the environmental literature that render it impossible to make sound and robust predictions of how climate change and increased climate variability will affect the economic migration drivers, and of how these in turn may change existing migration patterns. There are some empirical indications that income differentials may increase due to lower income levels in the origin areas of LDCs, but virtually no evidence exists of the effects of climate change or increased climate variability on income variability. Furthermore, although a negative relationship between migration and rainfall has been established by many researchers, there is only very limited evidence as to what drives it. A clearer picture of the driving force behind the link between rainfall and migration would greatly benefit policymaking in this area. 相似文献
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M.R. Khan C.A.J.M. de Bie H. van Keulen E.M.A. Smaling R. Real 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2010
Governments compile their agricultural statistics in tabular form by administrative area, which gives no clue to the exact locations where specific crops are actually grown. Such data are poorly suited for early warning and assessment of crop production. 10-Daily satellite image time series of Andalucia, Spain, acquired since 1998 by the SPOT Vegetation Instrument in combination with reported crop area statistics were used to produce the required crop maps. Firstly, the 10-daily (1998–2006) 1-km resolution SPOT-Vegetation NDVI-images were used to stratify the study area in 45 map units through an iterative unsupervised classification process. Each unit represents an NDVI-profile showing changes in vegetation greenness over time which is assumed to relate to the types of land cover and land use present. Secondly, the areas of NDVI-units and the reported cropped areas by municipality were used to disaggregate the crop statistics. Adjusted R-squares were 98.8% for rainfed wheat, 97.5% for rainfed sunflower, and 76.5% for barley. Relating statistical data on areas cropped by municipality with the NDVI-based unit map showed that the selected crops were significantly related to specific NDVI-based map units. Other NDVI-profiles did not relate to the studied crops and represented other types of land use or land cover. The results were validated by using primary field data. These data were collected by the Spanish government from 2001 to 2005 through grid sampling within agricultural areas; each grid (block) contains three 700 m × 700 m segments. The validation showed 68%, 31% and 23% variability explained (adjusted R-squares) between the three produced maps and the thousands of segment data. Mainly variability within the delineated NDVI-units caused relatively low values; the units are internally heterogeneous. Variability between units is properly captured. The maps must accordingly be considered “small scale maps”. These maps can be used to monitor crop performance of specific cropped areas because of using hypertemporal images. Early warning thus becomes more location and crop specific because of using hypertemporal remote sensing. 相似文献
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运用沉积学、岩石学的方法,结合野外露头实测与钻井观察,在鲁西南二叠纪近海盆地缓坡三角洲沉积中识别出6种岩相和8种沉积微相,其中6种岩相为灰黄色粗砂岩相（CS）、浅灰色中砂岩相（MS）、浅灰色细砂岩相（FS）、深灰色互层的泥岩与粉砂岩相（MFS）、煤（CB）、暗色泥岩相（DM）;8种沉积微相为分流河道相（MS与CS相组合）、河口砂坝相（MS与FS相组合）、天然堤相（FS与MFS相组合）、决口扇相（MS、FS与MFS相组合）、分流间湾相（DM与MFS相组合）、泥炭沼泽相（DM与CB相组合）、远砂坝相（MFS）和海湾或滨浅海相（DM）。在此基础上,采用层序地层方法进行等时地层对比,发现本区三角洲沉积序列含有4个沉积旋回,C1旋回早期以前三角洲的海湾相为主,晚期为三角洲前缘和三角洲平原沉积;C2旋回早期以三角洲前缘、前三角洲和三角洲平原沉积为主,晚期为三角洲平原沉积;C3旋回早期为三角洲前缘沉积,晚期为三角洲平原沉积;C4旋回主要以三角洲平原为主和陆相的河流沉积。 相似文献