Long-term prediction of intermediate depth earthquakes in the southern Aegean region based on a time-predictable model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

B. C. Papazachos 《Natural Hazards》1993,7(3):211-218

Repeat times of strong intermediate depth (60 km h 180 km) earthquakes have been determined by the use of instrumental and historical data for six seismogenic sources in the Benioff zone of the southern Aegean area. For four of these sources, at least two interevent times (three mainshocks) are available for each source. By using the repeat times for these four sources, the following relation has been determined: logT _t = 0.20M _min + 0.19M _p +a, whereT _t is the repeat time (in years),M _min the surface wave magnitude of the smallest earthquake considered,M _p the magnitude of the preceding mainshock and a parameter which varies from source to source. A multilinear correlation coefficient equal to 0.91 was determined for this relation, which indicates that the time predictable model holds to a satisfactory degree for the strong mainshocks of intermediate focal depth in the southern Aegean.By assuming that the ratioT/T _t, whereT is the observed andT _t the calculated repeat time, follows a lognormal distribution, the conditional probabilities for the occurrence of strong (M _s 6.5) and very strong (M _s 7.5) earthquakes during the period 1991–2001 in these four seismogenic sources have been calculated. These probabilities are very high (P > 0.9) for the strong and high (P > 0.5) for the very strong intermediate depth earthquakes which occur in the three sources of the shallower (h < 100 km) part of the Benioff zone where coupling occurs between the front parts of the Mediterranean lithosphere (downgoing) and the Aegean lithosphere.  相似文献   

A time- and magnitude-predictable model for generation of shallow earthquakes in the Aegean area     

B. C. Papazachos 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1992,138(2):287-308

Repeat times of strong shallow mainshocks have been determined by the use of instrumental and historical data for 68 seismogenic sources in the Aegean and surrounding area (34°N–43°N, 18°E–30°E). For 49 of these sources at least two interevent times (three mainshocks) are available for each source. By using the repeat times for these 49 sources the following relation has been determined: $$\log T_t = 0.36M_{\min } + 0.35M_p + a$$ whereT _t is the repeat time, measured in years,M _p the surface wave magnitude of the preceding mainshock,M _min the magnitude of the smallest earthquake considered and “a” parameter which varies from source to source. A multilinear correlation coefficient equal to 0.89 was determined for this relation. By using the same repeat times for the 49 seismogenic sources, the following relation has been determined between the magnitude,M _f , of the following mainshock andM _min andM _p . $$M_f = 0.95M_{\min } - 0.49M_p + m$$ wherem is a constant which varies from source to source. A multilinear correlation coefficient equal to 0.80 was found for this relation. The model expressed by these two relations is represented by a scheme of a time variation of stress under constant tectonic loading. In this scheme, the maximum stress values during the different seismic cycles fluctuate around a value, τ₁, in a relatively narrow stress interval, expressing the high correlation coefficient of the relation between LogT andM _p . On the contrary, the minimum stress values fluctuate around a value, τ₂, in a much broader stress interval. However, each of these minimum stress values becomes lower or higher than τ₂ if the previous one is higher or lower than τ₂, respectively, expressing the negative correlation betweenM _f andM _p .  相似文献   

Precursory seismic crustal deformation in the area of southern Albanides     

B.C. Papazachos  A.S. Savvaidis  C.B. Papazachos  G.F. Karakaisis 《Journal of Seismology》2002,6(2):237-245

On the basis of growing evidence thatstrong earthquakes are preceded by a periodof accelerating seismicity of moderatemagnitude earthquakes, an attempt is madeto search for such seismicity pattern in NWAegean area. Accelerating seismic crustaldeformation has been identified in the areaof southern Albanides mountain range(border region between Greece, formerYugoslavia and Albania). Based on certainproperties of this activity and on itssimilarity with accelerating seismicdeformation observed before a strongearthquake which occurred in the sameregion on 26 May 1960 (M = 6.5), we canconclude that a similar earthquake may begenerated in the same region during thenext few years. This conclusion is inagreement with independent results whichhave been derived on the basis of the timepredictable model.  相似文献   

Accelerating seismic crustal deformation in the North Aegean Trough, Greece   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

G. F. Karakaisis  C. B. Papazachos  A. S. Savvaidis  B. C. Papazachos 《Geophysical Journal International》2002,148(2):193-200

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Shear velocity structure in the Aegean area obtained by inversion of Rayleigh waves   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

E. E. Karagianni  C. B. Papazachos  D. G. Panagiotopoulos  P. Suhadolc  A. Vuan  G. F. Panza 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,160(1):127-143

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Travel time residuals in southeastern Europe     

D. G. Panagiotopoulos  P. M. Hatzidimitriou  G. F. Karakaisis  E. E. Papadimitriou  B. C. Papazachos 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1985,123(2):221-231

The Pn travel time relative residuals, in respect to a crustal model of the Aegean area, have been determined for 103 permanent seismological stations in southeastern Europe, western Turkey and the Middle East. The values of these residuals are considered to depend mainly on the crustal thickness beneath the seismological stations. Based on these values seven regions with different crustal thickness, varying between 31 Km and 42 Km, have been defined. The crust in these regions is continental. A region with very high negative residuals has been defined in the Middle East (Egypt, Israel, Lebanon). These negative residuals are attributed to different crustal structure of the eastern Mediterranean (oceanic crust with an extra thick sedimentary layer) and not the crustal thickness at the station sites.Independently from the interpretation, these Pn residuals can be used successfully to considerably improve (up to 2 Km) the determination of the earthquake foci locations.  相似文献   

Rupture zones in the area of the 17.08.99 Izmit (NW Turkey) large earthquake (Mw 7.4) and stress changes caused by its generation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

E.E. Papadimitriou  V.G. Karakostas  B.C. Papazachos 《Journal of Seismology》2001,5(2):269-276

The M_w 7.4 Izmit earthquake of 17 August 1999 struck a part ofthe North Anatolian fault in the area of Izmit Bay (NW Turkey). Historicalinformation shows that the fault which moved during the generation of thisearthquake consists of two fault segments moved during the generation oflarge (M 7) earthquakes in 1719 and 1754, respectively. Since then onlythe central part (between Izmit and Lake Sapanca) of this fault ruptured bythe generation of a smaller shock (M = 6.6) in 1878.The spatial stress variations based on the calculation of changes in theCoulomb Failure Function (CFF) associated with this earthquake aresupported by the distribution of strong aftershock foci. Large positive valuesof CFF to the east and west of the mainshock epicenter are inagreement with the notion that secondary faults were triggered there by thegeneration of the main event. Large positive values of CFF are alsoobserved in the adjacent western fault segment where the 1766 event wasgenerated, evidencing the occurrence of the next strong earthquake in thissegment.  相似文献   

A formulation for reliable estimation of active crustal deformation and its application to central Greece   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Constantinos B. Papazachos  Anastasia A. Kiratzi 《Geophysical Journal International》1992,111(3):424-432

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Geographical and vertical variation of the earth's seismicity     

Theodoros M. Tsapanos  Basil C. Papazachos 《Journal of Seismology》1998,2(3):183-192

Information concerning a total number of 13700 instrumentally recorded earthquakes is used to study the geographical and the vertical distribution of the Earth's seismicity. From these earthquakes, which form four complete samples of data (M 7.0, 1894–1992; M 6.5, 1930–1992; M 6.0, 1953–1992; M 5.5, 1966–1992), 11511 are shallow (h 60 km), 2085 are of intermediate focal depth (61 h 300 km) and 564 are deep focus earthquakes (301 h 720 km). The parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relationship were calculated in a grid of equally spaced points at 1° by using the data of earthquakes located inside circles centered at each point. The radius of the circles increased from 30 km with a step of 10 km until the information for the earthquakes located inside the circle fulfil three criteria which concern the size of the sample used to compute these parameters at each point of the grid. The results are given in a qualitative way (epicenter maps) as well as in a quantitative way (mean return periods).  相似文献   

Seismotectonics of the northern Aegean area     

B.C Papazachos 《Tectonophysics》1976,33(1-2)

Data concerning the focal mechanism and the spatial distribution of earthquakes have been used to investigate the active tectonics of the northern Aegean and the surrounding area.A thrust region, which includes the northernmost part of the Aegean and at least part of the Marmara Sea, has been defined. An amphitheatrical Benioff zone dipping towards the thrust region from south, east and probably from west, at a mean angle of about 30°, has been detected.The thrust region is surrounded by a region of normal faulting. An eastward progression of the seismic activity in this normal faulting region between 1954 and 1971 has been observed.A correspondence between the earthquake occurrence in the thrust and normal faulting regions has also been observed. Each large shock produced by tensional mechanism in the region of normal faulting is preceded or followed by one or more shocks of compressional mechanism in the thrust region.The focal mechanism, the distribution of the earthquake foci with intermediate focal depth, as well as some magnetic and gravimetric observations can be interpreted by assuming that dense oceanic crust sinks in the northern part of this area and that the adjacent lithosphere moves by segmentation to fill the void with the consequence of producing tensile stresses associated with normal faulting. Such a mechanism of lithospheric interaction suggests that accretion probably takes place in this area.  相似文献