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1.
In the annular or total eclipses of 3 October 2005, 29 March 2006, 22 September 2006, and 1 August 2008, observational campaigns were organized to record the phenomenon of Baily’s beads. These campaigns were internationally coordinated through the International Occultation Timing Association (IOTA) at both its American and European sections. From the stations in the northern and southern zones of grazing eclipse, the eclipses have been recorded on video. Afterward, as many beads as possible have been identified by analyzing the video data of each observing station. The atlas presented in this paper includes 598 data points, obtained by 23 observers operating at 28 different observing stations. The atlas lists the geographic positions of the observing stations and the observed time instants of disappearance or reappearance of beads, identified by an angle measured relative to the Moon’s axis of rotation. The atlas will serve as a basis for determining the solar diameter. Electronic Supplementary Material  The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   
2.
In this paper, we explore the effects of the intrinsic uncertainties upon long-term volcanic hazard by analyzing tephra fall hazard at Campi Flegrei, Italy, using the BET_VH model described in Marzocchi et al. (Bull Volcanol, 2010). The results obtained show that volcanic hazard based on the weighted average of all possible eruptive settings (i.e. size classes and vent locations) is significantly different from an analysis based on a single reference setting, as commonly used in volcanic hazard practice. The long-term hazard map for tephra fall at Campi Flegrei obtained here accounts for a wide spectrum of uncertainties which are usually neglected, largely reducing the bias intrinsically introduced by the choice of a specific reference setting. We formally develop and apply a general method to recursively integrate simulations from different models which have different characteristics in terms of spatial coverage, resolution and physical details. This outcome of simulations will be eventually merged with field data through the use of the BET_VH model.  相似文献   
3.
An efficient polynomial interpolation method is proposed to reduce the computational burden of the coregistration of synthetic aperture radar images in interferometric processing. The method can be viewed as an application of the Farrow interpolator technique and requires a series of 2-D fast Fourier transforms (FFTs). Mainly, it has two advantages relative to the usual coregistration procedure. First, it does not require to compute or store in memory any kernel sample. Second, it involves less floating-point operations than the conventional coregistration, with a clear advantage if the image needs to be oversampled. The efficiency of the method is based on the fact that the complexity of one 2-D FFT is much smaller than the complexity of one spatial convolution. These advantages are demonstrated by both analyzing the interpolation procedure itself and by defining an efficient code implementation.  相似文献   
4.
The general modular Bayesian procedure is applied to provide a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for the Messina Strait Area (MSA), Italy. This is the first study in an Italian area where the potential tsunamigenic events caused by both submarine seismic sources (SSSs) and submarine mass failures (SMFs) are examined in a probabilistic assessment. The SSSs are localized on active faults in MSA as indicated by the instrumental data of the catalogue of the Italian seismicity; the SMFs are spatially identified using their propensity to failure in the Ionian and Tyrrhenian Seas on the basis of mean slope and mean depth, and using marine geology background knowledge. In both cases the associated probability of occurrence is provided. The run-ups were calculated at key sites that are main cities and/or important sites along the Eastern Sicily and the Southern Calabria coasts where tsunami events were recorded in the past. The posterior probability distribution combines the prior probability and the likelihood calculated in the MSA. The prior probability is based on the physical model of the tsunami process, and the likelihood is based on the historical data collected by the historical catalogues, background knowledge, and marine geological information. The posterior SSSs and SMFs tsunami probabilities are comparable and are combined to produce a final probability for a full PTHA in MSA.  相似文献   
5.
Multi-risk approaches have been recently proposed to assess and compare different risks in the same target area. The key points of multi-risk assessment are the development of homogeneous risk definitions and the treatment of risk interaction. The lack of treatment of interaction may lead to significant biases and thus to erroneous risk hierarchization, which is one of primary output of risk assessments for decision makers. In this paper, a formal statistical model is developed to treat interaction between two different hazardous phenomena in long-term multi-risk assessments, accounting for possible effects of interaction at hazard, vulnerability and exposure levels. The applicability of the methodology is demonstrated through two illustrative examples, dealing with the influence of (1) volcanic ash in seismic risk and (2) local earthquakes in tsunami risk. In these applications, the bias in single-risk estimation induced by the assumption of independence among risks is explicitly assessed. An extensive application of this methodology at regional and sub-regional scale would allow to identify when and where a given interaction has significant effects in long-term risk assessments, and thus, it should be considered in multi-risk analyses and risks hierarchization.  相似文献   
6.
This paper reports on a series of shaking table tests on a full-scale flat-bottom steel silo filled with soft wheat, characterized by aspect ratio of around 0.9. The specimen was a 3.64-m diameter and 5.50-m high corrugated-wall cylindrical silo. Multiple sensors were used to monitor the static and dynamic response of the filled silo system, including accelerometers and pressure cells. Numerous unidirectional dynamic tests were performed consisting of random signals, sinusoidal inputs, and both artificial and real earthquake records. The objectives of this paper are (i) to provide a general overview of the whole experimental campaign and (ii) to present selected results obtained for the fixed-base configuration. The measured data were processed to assess the static pressures, the dynamic overpressures (related to the effective mass) and the accelerations of monitored points on the silo wall, and to identify the basic dynamic properties (fundamental frequency of vibration, damping ratio, dynamic amplification factors) of the filled silo. The main findings are discussed and compared with the predictions given by available theoretical models and code provisions. It is found that the fundamental frequency slightly decreases with increasing acceleration, while it slightly increases with increasing compaction of the granular material. For close-to-resonance input, the dynamic amplification (in terms of peak values of accelerations) increases along the height of the silo wall up to values of around 1.4 at the top surface of the solid content. The dynamic overpressures appear to increase with depth (differently from the EN1998-4 expectations), and to be proportional to the acceleration.  相似文献   
7.
The high-pressure behavior of HgO-montroydite was investigated up to 36.5 GPa using angle-dispersive X-ray diffraction. The tetragonal phase of this material (HgO-II), a distortion of the NaCl structure, transforms into the cubic NaCl structure (HgO-III) above ~31.5 GPa. The transformation of mercury oxide from the orthorhombic Pnma (HgO-I) structure to a tetragonal I4/mmm structure (HgO-II) is confirmed to occur at 13.5 ± 1.5 GPa. Neither of the high-pressure phases, HgO-II nor HgO-III, is quenchable in pressure. The derived isothermal bulk modulus of HgO-II and its pressure derivative strongly depend on the assumed zero-pressure volume of this phase, but our elasticity results on HgO-II nevertheless lie significantly closer to theoretical calculations than prior experimental results, and the measured pressure of the phase transformation to the NaCl structure is also in agreement with recent theoretical results. The general accord with theory supports the existence of significant relativistic effects on the high-pressure phase transitions of HgO.  相似文献   
8.
The groundwater variations in unconfined aquifers are governed by the nonlinear Boussinesq's equation. Analytical solution for groundwater fluctuations in coastal aquifers under tidal forcing can be solved using perturbation methods. However, the perturbation parameters should be properly selected and predefined for traditional perturbation methods. In this study, a new dimensional, higher‐order analytical solution for groundwater fluctuations is proposed by using the homotopy perturbation method with a virtual perturbation parameter. Parameter‐expansion method is used to remove the secular terms generated during the solution process. The solution does not require any predefined perturbation parameter and valid for higher values of amplitude parameter A/D, where A is the amplitude of the tide and D is the aquifer thickness.  相似文献   
9.
The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) is a young basaltic field that lies beneath the urban area of Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city. Over the past 250,000 years the AVF has produced at least 49 basaltic centers; the last eruption was only 600 years ago. In recognition of the high risk associated with a possible future eruption in Auckland, the New Zealand government ran Exercise Ruaumoko in March 2008, a test of New Zealand’s nation-wide preparedness for responding to a major disaster resulting from a volcanic eruption in Auckland City. The exercise scenario was developed in secret, and covered the period of precursory activity up until the eruption. During Exercise Ruaumoko we adapted a recently developed statistical code for eruption forecasting, namely BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting), to independently track the unrest evolution and to forecast the most likely onset time, location and style of the initial phase of the simulated eruption. The code was set up before the start of the exercise by entering reliable information on the past history of the AVF as well as the monitoring signals expected in the event of magmatic unrest and an impending eruption. The average probabilities calculated by BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko corresponded well to the probabilities subjectively (and independently) estimated by the advising scientists (differences of few percentage units), and provided a sound forecast of the timing (before the event, the eruption probability reached 90%) and location of the eruption. This application of BET_EF to a volcanic field that has experienced no historical activity and for which otherwise limited prior information is available shows its versatility and potential usefulness as a tool to aid decision-making for a wide range of volcano types. Our near real-time application of BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko highlighted its potential to clarify and possibly optimize decision-making procedures in a future AVF eruption crisis, and as a rational starting point for discussions in a scientific advisory group. It also stimulated valuable scientific discussion around how a future AVF eruption might progress, and highlighted areas of future volcanological research that would reduce epistemic uncertainties through the development of better input models.  相似文献   
10.
BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
In this paper, we illustrate a Bayesian Event Tree to estimate Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH). The procedure enables us to calculate the probability of any kind of long-term hazardous event for which we are interested, accounting for the intrinsic stochastic nature of volcanic eruptions and our limited knowledge regarding related processes. For the input, the code incorporates results from numerical models simulating the impact of hazardous volcanic phenomena on an area and data from the eruptive history. For the output, the code provides a wide and exhaustive set of spatiotemporal probabilities of different events; these probabilities are estimated by means of a Bayesian approach that allows all uncertainties to be properly accounted for. The code is able to deal with many eruptive settings simultaneously, weighting each with its own probability of occurrence. In a companion paper, we give a detailed example of application of this tool to the Campi Flegrei caldera, in order to estimate the hazard from tephra fall.  相似文献   
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