浙江省沿海县级风暴潮危险性区划研究     

李涛  朱业  付翔  郭敬 《海洋预报》2018,(1)

以浙江省沿海13个潮位站30 a(1985—2014年)共85次的台风风暴潮历史过程资料为基础,利用统计相关以及数值模拟对个别潮位站进行资料增补,确保资料丰富、全面。选用风暴增水和超警戒两个自然属性因子进行等级划分,考虑权重后计算得到浙江沿海县级风暴潮危险性指数。在此基础上,以20 a资料时长和危险性指数7为衡量标准,通过资料法及包含历史灾情在内的综合法对浙江沿海县级风暴潮危险性进行区划。研究结果表明:在33个浙江沿海县中18个可划为风暴潮灾害重点防御区,约占全部沿海县的54.5%,主要位于浙江的中南部和杭州湾北岸。上述沿海县在海洋灾害风险管理和涉海产业的利用规划中应重视风暴潮灾害影响并应加强风暴潮灾害风险评估工作。  相似文献   

“21·7”河南特大暴雨气象和水文雨量观测对比          下载免费PDF全文

宝兴华  夏茹娣  罗亚丽  徐祥德 《应用气象学报》2022,33(6):668-681

2021年“21·7”河南特大暴雨打破我国大陆小时气象观测纪录,该极端天气事件位列2021年中国十大天气气候事件第2位。已有研究使用气象地面站雨量观测资料对此次过程进行雨情分析和极值统计,但降水时空分布不均匀,单一来源资料存在不确定性。通过对比气象站和水文站雨量资料,分析两套业务观测系统记录“21·7”河南特大暴雨过程的异同,发现气象站和水文站雨量在时间和空间分布上具有很好的一致性,两者不同等级的累积降雨落区、逐日和逐时降雨演变趋势均一致性强,但累积雨量和雨强极值的空间分布和数值存在差异,两套资料在暴雨中心（过程雨量大于600 mm）的系统性偏差小于1%。气象站和水文站的融合资料呈现比单一资料更细致的降雨分布、更全面的演变特征。此外,基于融合资料发现累积雨量排名前3位的城市（郑州、鹤壁、新乡）均具有累积雨量大、小时雨强极强、强降雨集中、雨强突然增长的特征,鹤壁和新乡最强降雨时段分别比郑州晚26 h和28 h。  相似文献   

The Key Supply Source of Long-Distance Moisture Transport for the Extreme Rainfall Event on July 21, 2012 in Beijing     

李娟  徐祥德  李跃清  赵天良  吴翀 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(1):34-47

In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and meteorological observation data were used to research the long-distance moisture transport supply source of the extreme rainfall event that occurred on July 21, 2012 in Beijing. Recording a maximum rainfall amount of 460 mm in 24 h, this rainstorm event had two dominant moisture transport channels. In the early stage of the rainstorm, the first channel comprised southwesterly monsoonal moisture from the Bay of Bengal (BOB) that was directly transported to north China along the eastern edge of Tibetan Plateau (TP) by orographic uplift. During the rainstorm, the southwesterly moisture transport was weakened by the transfer of Typhoon Vicente. Moreover, the southeasterly moisture transport between the typhoon and western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) became another dominant moisture transport channel. The moisture in the lower troposphere was mainly associated with the southeasterly moisture transport from the South China Sea and the East China Sea, and the moisture in the middle troposphere was mainly transported from the BOB and Indian Ocean. The control experiment well reproduced the distribution and intensity of rainfall and moisture transport. By comparing the control and three sensitivity experiments, we found that the moisture transported from Typhoon Vicente and a tropical cyclone in the BOB both significantly affected this extreme rainfall event. After Typhoon Vicente was removed in a sensitivity experiment, the maximum 24-h accumulated rainfall in north China was reduced by approximately 50% compared with that of the control experiment, while the rainfall after removing the tropical cyclone was reduced by 30%. When both the typhoon and tropical cyclone were removed, the southwesterly moisture transport was enhanced. Moreover, the sensitivity experiment of removing Typhoon Vicente also weakened the tropical cyclone in the BOB. Thus, the moisture pump driven by Typhoon Vicente played an important role in maintaining and strengthening the tropical cyclone in the BOB through its westerly airflow. Typhoon Vicente was not only the moisture transfer source for the southwesterly monsoonal moisture but also affected the tropical cyclone in the BOB, which was a key supply source of long-distance moisture transport for the extreme rainfall event on July 21, 2012 in Beijing.  相似文献   

汛期西南涡暴雨的数值模拟研究     

程晓龙  李跃清  徐祥德  衡志炜 《高原气象》2019,(2):359-367

利用西南区域数值预报模式系统SWCWARMS,结合全国汛期高空加密观测资料,对2013年6月29—30日的一次西南涡暴雨过程进行数值模拟和敏感性试验。结果表明,与控制试验相比,同化试验模拟的降雨与实况更为接近,并成功模拟出四川东部的强降雨中心,对于西南涡的模拟,同化试验西南涡出现时间更早,强度更强。并且,通过两组试验初值差异对比发现,同化试验初值在四川盆地对流层中低层表现出更强的低压,更强的涡度以及更强的旋转风扰动,四川盆地西部边坡也存在更强的上升气流,这都有利于西南涡的发生、发展。另外,同化汛期高空加密观测资料对强降雨中心单站的预报改进也较明显。因此,加强汛期加密气象观测,有利于揭示西南涡的发生、发展及其降雨天气影响,也有助于提升数值预报业务技术水平。  相似文献   

MM5和ETA相似理论近地层方案对农田下垫面通量模拟比较研究     

王寅钧  周明煜  徐祥德  孙绩华 《气象学报》2013,71(1):677-691

近地层湍流通量计算对于中尺度数值模式有重要意义, 湍流通量的参数化是当前大气边界层研究的重要课题之一。选择青藏高原东缘大理观象台边界层通量观测系统, 离线测试了WRF区域模式中的两种常用的近地层参数化方案(MM5相似理论非迭代方案A和ETA 相似理论迭代方案B), 并将参数化方案计算结果与边界层铁塔涡动相关法的观测值进行对比分析。在大理观象台观测场不同植被随季节交替的状况下, 根据边界层铁塔4层高度风速拟合, 发现近地层空气动力学粗糙度随季节变化特征明显。将拟合的空气动力学粗糙度输入模式参数化方案进行通量计算。结果表明:稳定度是影响近地层参数化方案精度的重要因素, 在不稳定条件下方案B低估了动量通量, 方案A优于方案B, 而在稳定条件下方案A低估了动量通量, 方案B优于方案A, 两种方案总体来看误差不大。对于大理边界层通量观测场地农田植被交替的环境条件, 不同季节下垫面植被类型的差异, 以及植被的稀疏对近地层参数化方案湍流通量计算结果的精度有显著影响。方案B考虑了空气动力学粗糙度z₀和热量粗糙度z_0h的差异, 不稳定条件下感热通量计算结果在裸土或稀少植被条件下明显优于方案A。针对方案B不稳定条件下感热通量计算结果在裸土下垫面仍出现高估的现象, 在使用了(Zeng, et al, 1998)提出的对于使用辐射地表温度在裸土下垫面时的订正方法后, 计算结果也有明显改善。  相似文献   

夏季亚洲季风区对流层-平流层不可逆质量交换特征分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

陈斌  徐祥德  卞建春  施晓晖 《地球物理学报》2010,53(5):1050-1059

基于2005年NCEP/GFS分析资料和拉格朗日粒子扩散模式的“Domain Filling”技术,以气块穿越对流层顶后的滞留时间为标准,诊断分析了夏季亚洲季风区对流层-平流层质量交换,重点讨论了对平流层大气成分收支具有实际意义的不可逆双向质量交换过程,并利用前向（后向）轨迹追踪方法,分析了其4天的“源（汇）”特征.研究结果表明：(1)对流层-平流层质量交换(Troposphere-Stratosphere mass Exchange,STE)的计算对滞留时间阈值的选择具有较强敏感性,大多数的气块在1～2天内可频繁地往返对流层顶.这些瞬时交换事件的考虑与否对穿越对流层顶的质量交换计算的准确性具有重要影响,尤其在中纬度的风暴轴区域.(2)从亚洲季风区对流层-平流层质量净交换纬向平均上看,45°N以南的区域为对流层向平流层的质量输送(Troposphere to Stratosphere mass Transport,TST),副热带地区为最强的上升支,而在45°N~55°N的中纬度地区是平流层向对流层质量输送（Stratosphere to Troposphere mass Transport,STT）.地理分布上,STT主要分布在青藏高原以北的东亚地区,与亚洲季风区夏季大尺度的槽区相对应.夏季整个亚洲季风区都是TST发生的区域,最大值位于青藏高原东南侧及其附近区域,该区域占亚洲季风区不可逆TST夏季平均总量的46%.(3)对流层-平流层质量交换的“源汇”特征分析表明,STT主要源于100°E以西、50°N以北的高纬地区,向下可以输送到中国东北部及朝鲜半岛北部等中纬度区域.而TST主要来源于中纬度和副热带地区的大气输送,向上穿越对流层顶高度以后,可分别向高纬的极地和热带地区输送,这意味着亚洲季风区夏季的TST水汽输送可能进入“热带管”中,进而可能对全球平流层水汽平衡产生重要影响.  相似文献   

暖季中国东部气溶胶“影响显著区”的气候变化特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

施晓晖  徐祥德  谢立安 《中国科学D辑》2008,38(4):519-528

通过分析近20多年来暖季东亚区域大气气溶胶的分布和变化特征及其与各种气象要素之间可能存在的相关关系,发现暖季TOMS气溶胶光学厚度高值区、其与日照时数、地面气温的显著负相关区,与低云量的显著正相关区均位于华南地区,并据此将该地区称为暖季中国东部的气溶胶“影响显著区”．然后对比分析了地面观测的气温、日照时数、低云量等气象要素在不同区域的变化差异,发现中国东部暖季大气气溶胶“影响显著区”内低云量增加、日照时数减少的变化特征较“影响显著区”外表现得更加显著,而“影响显著区”内地面气温的增温趋势比“影响显著区”外明显偏弱．研究结果表明,近20多年来,暖季华南气溶胶“影响显著区”内具有低云量显著增加,日照时数明显减少而地面气温增温趋势不明显的区域气候变化特征,且与“影响显著区”外的气候变化具有显著的差异．因此大气气溶胶的气候效应可能是中国东部地区暖季气候变化存在南北差异的原因之一．  相似文献   

中国海高分辨率业务化风暴潮模式的业务化预报检验   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

董剑希  付翔  吴玮  赵联大  于福江 《海洋预报》2008,25(2):11-17

国家海洋环境预报中心建立了中国海高分辨率风暴潮数值预报模式,模式在水平分辨率和网格的嵌套方面都较以往的业务化模式有改进和提高.自2003年起将模式投入业务化运行以来,连续三年共对11个台风风暴潮过程进行了跟踪预报,并将数值预报结果与实测资料相对比.本文将对预报模式三年来的预报结果进行检验.  相似文献   

CHARACTERISTICS OF UT/LS CARBON MONOXIDE INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS AND THEIR IMPACT FACTORS OVER THE TIBETAN PLATEAU AND ITS ADJACENT AREAS IN SUMMER     

陈斌  徐祥德  杨帅  施晓晖  张胜军 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2013,19(2):109-119

The study presented herein investigated the main characteristics of carbon monoxideintraseasonal variability and evaluated its possible impact factors using the upper troposphere and lowerstratosphere (UT/LS) Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations over Tibetan Plateau and itsadjacent areas in summer (June to August) of 2005 and 2006. Observations show a persistent constituentextreme extending up into the UT/LS throughout summer, as well as a temporally reversed phase variationbetween the carbon monoxide and ozone in UT/LS. The intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) of carbonmonoxide during summer are investigated by using methods of wavelet and band pass filter analysis. It isfound that ISOs over the Tibetan Plateau have periods of 10 to 20 days and 30 to 60 days. The formermainly appeared in upper troposphere while the latter in lower stratosphere. Further analysis shows thatthese two periods of ISOs in UT/LS are mainly in phase to the activities of convection over the south of theplateau and the variation of South Asia High, respectively. The above two factors and their dynamicalcoupling may be responsible for the tracer ISOs at different levels.  相似文献   

青藏高原大气水汽收支特征及影响     

柏晶瑜  徐祥德 《地理学报(英文版)》2004,14(1)

Based on 1961-2000 NCEP/NCAR monthly mean reanalysis datasets, vapor transfer and hydrological budget over the Tibetan Plateau are investigated. The Plateau is a vapor sink all the year round. In summer, vapor is convergent in lower levels (from surface to 500 hPa) and divergent in upper levels (from 400 to 300 hPa), with 450 hPa referred to as level of non-divergence. Two levels have different hydrologic budget signatures: the budget is negative at the upper levels from February to November, i.e., vapor transfers from the upper levels over the plateau; as to the lower, the negative (positive) budget occurs during the winter (summer) half year. Evidence also indicates that Tibetan Plateau is a "vapor transition belt", vapor from the south and the west is transferred from lower to upper levels there in summer, which will affect surrounding regions, including eastern China, especially, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze. Vapor transfer exerts significant influence on precipitation in summertime months. Vapor transferred from the upper layers helps humidify eastern China, with coefficient -0.3 of the upper budget to the precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze (MLRY); also, vapor transferred from east side (27.5°-32.5°N) of the upper level has remarkable relationship with precipitation, the coefficient being 0.41. The convergence of the lower level vapor has great effects on the local precipitation over the plateau, with coefficient reaching 0.44, and the vapor passage affects the advance and retreat of the rainbelt. In general, atmospheric hydrologic budget and vapor transfer over the plateau have noticeable effects on precipitation of the target region as well as the ambient areas.  相似文献