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Recent advances in Global Positioning System （GPS） remote sensing technology allow for a direct estimation of the precipitable water vapor （PWV） from delayed signals transmitted by GPS satellites, which can be assimilated into numerical models with four-dimensional variational （4DVAR） data assimilation. A mesoscale model and its 4DVAR system are used to access the impacts of assimilating GPS-PWV and hourly rainfall observations on the short-range prediction of a heavy rainfall event on 20 June 2002. The heavy precipitation was induced by a sequence of meso-β-scale convective systems （MCS） along the mei-yu front in China. The experiments with GPS-PWV assimilation cluster and also eliminated the erroneous rainfall successfully simulated the evolution of the observed MCS systems found in the experiment without 4DVAR assimilation. Experiments with hourly rainfall assimilation performed similarly both on the prediction of MCS initiation and the elimination of erroneous systems, however the MCS dissipated much sooner than it did in observations. It is found that the assimilation-induced moisture perturbation and mesoscale low-level jet are helpful for the MCS generation and development. It is also discovered that spurious gravity waves may post serious limitations for the current 4DVAR algorithm, which would degrade the assimilation efficiency, especially for rainfall data. Sensitivity experiments with different observations, assimilation windows and observation weightings suggest that assimilating GPS-PWV can be quite effective, even with the assimilation window as short as 1 h. On the other hand, assimilating rainfall observations requires extreme cautions on the selection of observation weightings and the control of spurious gravity waves. 相似文献
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为正确认识流体充填钻孔中管波的传播规律,首先给出均匀各向同性介质中包含流体充填钻孔条件下的弹性波动力学方程和二阶速度-应力公式及差分格式的稳定性条件和边界条件;然后利用高阶交错网格有限差分法,结合典型模型,模拟了不同时刻管波的传播快照和复杂层状介质中管波的合成地震记录,并与实际管波地震记录进行了对比。结果表明:在地层分界面、溶洞的边界等波阻抗差异界面处,管波都会产生反射;反射管波的振幅、频率特征受界面两侧的岩石物理性质差异的影响;在理论合成记录中,反射管波与直达管波同相轴的交点与理论模型中地层分界面或异常体的边界一致。 相似文献
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