21世纪中国主要粮食产区的空间格局特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

殷培红  方修琦  田青  MA Yuling 《地理学报(英文版)》2006,16(4):396-404

Grain production is an important issue for the national economy and the livelihood of the Chinese people. It serves as the foundation of national development and social stability. China is a major grain producer as well as a major grain consumer. The grai…  相似文献   

《湘绮楼日记》记录的湖南长沙1877-1878年寒冬   总被引：5，自引：4，他引：5  

萧凌波  方修琦  张学珍 《古地理学报》2006,8(2):277-284

在对清代王运所著的《湘绮楼日记》中长达40余年(1869—1916)的冬季(12月—2月)天气记录进行整理之后,从王运在湖南长沙、衡阳一带记录的30多个完整冬季之中,提取了一个特殊的寒冬——1877—1878年冬天(记录于长沙境内)。将这年的天气记录与日记中其他年份进行比较,其寒冷程度可以明显地体现在以下几个方面(1)降雪——降雪日数14天,为最多的年份之一,且降雪次数最多;(2)积雪——积雪日数在27天以上,为历年之最;(3)冰冻——根据该年日记记录,冰冻的严重程度和持续时间均超过其他年份;(4)《日记》作者感受——王运留下了大量对“寒”、“暖”的感应记录,这一年有历年最多的“寒”记录(15条)和最少的“暖”记录(0)。由此可以得出结论1877—1878年冬天是《湘绮楼日记》中所仅见的、异常寒冷的严冬。文中对这年当地冬季严寒的天气过程和气候特点进行了初步分析。  相似文献   

全球变化研究与地理学     

方修琦  周苹 《地理教学》2002,(8):3-5

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我国北方农牧交错带的环境演变   总被引：60，自引：2，他引：60  

张兰生  方修琦  任国玉  索秀芬 《地学前缘》1997,(Z1)

中国北方农牧交错带在１０～８．５ｋａＢ．Ｐ．经历了三次阶段性增暖后进入全新世暖期。８．５～８．０ｋａＢ．Ｐ．和４～３．５ｋａＢ．Ｐ．暖期的开始与结束事件中降水变化落后于温度变化３００～５００ａ；暖期盛期时的年均温较现代高２～３℃，降水多１００ｍｍ左右；暖期中存在多次短期寒冷事件，年均温最冷时较现代低３℃以上。３．５ｋａＢ．Ｐ．以来冷干趋势之上叠加着大致由３００ａ稳定与５００ａ波动构成的约８００ａ的周期性变化。全新世暖期原始农业文化的阶段性发展与暖期内环境波动相对应；暖期结束时发生了由农业向牧业文化转换的事件；暖期以后的冷干期为农牧交错文化时期，农业经济随冷干程度的变化而兴衰  相似文献   

地球表状与大小的三次争论     

方修琦  孟胜修 《地理教学》2005,(6):1-3

“地圆”还是“地方” 古代人的活动范围有限，即使站在山顶上，也只能看到地球表面很小的一部分。对古人来说，地球的形状和大小是一个谜。古人凭借直观感觉推理，对地球的形状曾有许多猜测。我国古代有地方和地圆两种观点，最早出现的天圆地方的“盖天说”，后来修改的“盖天说”认为，天穹像一个倒扣着的斗笠，大地像一个倒扣的大盘子；后来又提出大地是一个整体球形的“浑天说”。在古希腊也是如此，存在“地圆”与“地方”之争。  相似文献   

气候变化对中国古代财政平衡的影响北大核心CSCD     

魏柱灯  方修琦  苏筠 《地理科学》2015,(9):1156-1163

以当代历史和经济史著作为资料,建立与历朝财政盈亏状态相关词汇的语义分级标准,重建了中国自秦朝至清末(220 BC^1910 AD)10 a分辨率的财政等级序列,并分析其与气候变化的关系。结果表明,秦朝至清末的财政平衡大体经历了4个相对充裕阶段(220 BC^31 BC,441~760 AD,961~1210 AD,1381~1910 AD)和3个相对匮乏阶段(30 BC^440 AD,761~960 AD,1211~1380 AD)。财政危机在寒冷-干旱的气候背景下爆发的可能性最大。财政平衡与温度和降水变化均成正相关,财政平衡的趋势性变化受长期的温度和降水变化影响较为明显。但受多因素的复杂反馈环节影响,两者在某些时段呈现反相位关系。  相似文献   

《翁同龢日记》中的冷暖感知记录及其对气候冷暖变化的指示意义     

张学珍方修琦  齐晓波 《古地理学报》2007,9(4):439-446

依据清代《翁同龢日记》（以下简称《日记》）中逐日的冷暖感知记录和同时期的器测月均温资料，采用相关分析和线性回归分析等统计方法，以月为基本统计单元，对《日记》中冷暖感知记录反演气候变化的能力进行了分析。结果说明，《日记》中的冷暖感知记录可以用于气候变化研究，但是最佳代用指标因气候变化的时间尺度和季节而异。总体而言，极热、偏热、偏凉、极冷日数对年内月到季时间尺度气候变化的代表性较好，其中尤以偏凉和极冷日数最佳。 对于年际尺度上的气候波动，从季节对比来看，冷暖感知日数反演夏季（6-8月份）月均温的能力最差；从冷暖感知类型对比来看，极冷日数是多个月份月均温的最佳代用指标，1、3、5、9和12月份的最佳代用指标均是极冷日数。并且，还可以依据极冷日数的多寡识别极端冷、极端热年。由此可见，古代私人日记中的冷暖感知记录可以用于反演历史时期气候的冷暖变化。  相似文献   

粮食安全视角下中国历史气候变化影响与响应的过程与机理   总被引：12，自引：2，他引：10  

方修琦  郑景云  葛全胜 《地理科学》2014,(11):1299-1306

基于现代全球变化研究中关于脆弱性和粮食安全的概念,把历史时期的粮食安全分解为粮食生产安全、粮食供给安全、粮食消费安全3个层次,以气候变化直接影响粮食生产水平为起点,分析气候变化-农(牧)业收成-食物的人均供给量-饥民-社会稳定性的驱动-响应链中的关键过程,指出气候变化影响的驱动-响应关系不能归结为简单的因果关系,诸如耕地、人口、政策、外来势力都会对气候变化的影响起着放大或抑制的作用。  相似文献   

东北地区历史时期森林空间格局网格化重建方法研究(英文)     

李士成  何凡能  张学珍 《地理学报(英文版)》2014,(6)

The spatially explicit reconstruction of historical land-cover datasets plays an important role in studying the climatic and ecological effects of land-use and land-cover change(LUCC). Using potential natural vegetation(PNV) and satellite-based land use data, we determined the possible maximum distribution extent of forest cover in the absence of human disturbance. Subsequently, topography and climate factors were selected to assess the suitability of land for cultivation. Finally, a historical forest area allocation model was devised on the basis of the suitability of land for cultivation. As a case study, we used the historical forest area allocation model to reconstruct forest cover for 1780 and 1940 in Northeast China with a 10-km resolution. To validate the model, we compared satellite-based forest cover data with our reconstruction for 2000. A one-sample t-test of absolute bias showed that the two-tailed significance was 0.12, larger than the significant level 0.05, suggesting that the model has strong ability to capture the spatial distribution of forests. In addition, we calculated the relative difference of our reconstruction at the county scale for 1780 in Northeast China. The number of counties whose relative difference ranged from-30% to 30% is 99, accounting for 74.44% of all counties. These findings demonstrated that the provincial forest area could be transformed into forest cover maps well using the model.  相似文献   

过去2000年气候变化对中国经济与社会发展影响研究综述   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

魏柱灯  方修琦  苏筠  萧凌波 《地球科学进展》2014,29(3):336-343

It is one of the important focuses of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) to investigate the long-term impacts of climate change on regional social and economic development over the past two millenniums. The past decades in China have witnessed great progresses in the study of past climatic influence on human society. In this paper, reviews have been made on the latest proceedings related with researches about the past 2000-year climatic impacts on Chinese history in terms of the following three aspects: economic fluctuations, social stability, and the rise and fall of dynasties in China. It is concluded that climate change and socio-economic fluctuation in historical China really temporarily demonstrated a good coincidence, which indicates a potential driving-response mechanism was likely embedded in the complicated relationship between climate change and human society. A warm climate provided relatively stable conditions of agricultural production and thus generally played a positive role in the healthy development of the economy and society. On the contrary, socio-economic adverseness triggered by a colder climate was preconditioned with social problems such as the intensification of the contradiction between people and land, as well as the gradual accumulation of social rigidity. These social problems accompanying with social development contributed higher vulnerability of society in the face of changing climate, which to some extent might amplify the effects of climatic deterioration. The authors emphasize that the future studies of the relationship between past climate change and human history in China should attach more attention to the following key problems: making deeper exploitation of the potential of Chinese historical documents, exploring the mechanism of climate-society interaction, and studying the differences of climatic effects on socio-economic development at the regional scale. This study from a historical perspective might enhance the understanding of human-environment relationship under a situation of global warming, and also provide the scientific basis for the sustainable social development in China.  相似文献