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Fishery policy makers would often benefit from information on how a policy might change fishermen behavior before the policy is implemented. This paper contributes to the literature by comparing simulated behavioral response with actual response to a spatial policy using a discrete choice model of fishing location choice. The results point to the inherent problem of the simulation's inability to capture the fundamental change in the nature of the choice problem that occurs with the change in policy. Addressing this problem will be important as these models continue to be used to inform policy makers. 相似文献
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Branka Ivančan-Picek Kristian Horvath Nataša Strelec Mahović Marjana Gajić-Čapka 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(2):1231-1252
The aim of this study was to identify the main mesoscale features and mechanisms responsible for the generation of an extreme precipitation event as a contribution to improving the modelling of processes that produce HPEs. The event occurred during the morning hours on 22 November 2010 over the Dubrovnik coast in Croatia and the hinterland mountain range of the southern Dinaric Alps and caused severe flash floods and landslides and consequent interruption of traffic and electricity supply as well as other infrastructural damage. The analysis is geographically focused on the southern portion of the eastern Adriatic region, which is prone to relatively frequent heavy precipitation events that occur mostly in autumn. This area is one of the rainiest in Europe with expected annual amounts of precipitation greater than 5,000 mm in the mountainous hinterland. The mechanisms responsible for the formation of convection were analysed using synop measurements, satellite data and numerical experiments performed with the WRF model, which was set up at the convection-permitting resolution in the innermost domain. Satellite data were used to identify the precipitation systems and to estimate the intensity of the precipitation during the period of interest. The development of the precipitation system was connected to a strong large-scale ascent over the southern Italy and southern Adriatic due to the advection of warm air and cyclonic vorticity advection, which increases with height. The numerical simulations highlighted the essential role of a southerly low-level jet stream in the transport of warm and moist air towards the affected area. The convergence of two branches of low-level marine air favoured convection triggered over the coast and sea. Furthermore, numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the orography of the Dinaric Alps plays an essential role in the precipitation maximum over the mountainous hinterland, but also that the orography was not the crucial factor in the heavy precipitation near Dubrovnik. This study highlights the need for a dense network of observations, especially radar measurements, to validate the simulated mechanisms and improve numerical forecasts via data assimilation. 相似文献
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This paper examines willingness to pay (WTP) for an endangered species across geographically nested samples using the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM). The three samples range from (1) the boroughs that contain critical habitat for the Steller sea lion to (2) the state that contains these boroughs to and (3) the entire United States. Depending on the assumptions of the model, WTP varies tremendously from sample to sample. WTP for the United States is the highest and it is the lowest for the boroughs. The null hypotheses that mean WTP estimates are greater then zero were rejected for the boroughs and the state but were not rejected for the United States based on the 95% confidence intervals. 相似文献
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Branka Trček 《Environmental Geology》2007,51(5):761-765
The role of an epikarst zone in the karst aquifer hydraulic behaviour was brought into focus in our studies referring to the
catchment area of the Hubelj spring (SW Slovenia). This study points out the significance of effects of the fast preferential
flow—epiflow, which is the main factor controlling solute/contaminant transport towards the aquifer saturated zone. The so-called
epikarstic hypothesis is verified on the basis of the most significant research results that are supported by the most important
findings from the literature. 相似文献
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Branka Tavzes Gorazd Urbani? Mihael J. Toman 《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2006,31(17):1062-1074
Biological and hydromorphological integrity of five reaches of the small urban stream were assessed. Because macroinvertebrate communities respond to both organic pollution and habitat change, impacts of both measures can be hardly separated. In our study on the urbanized small stream, an impact of organic pollution was excluded as all five sampling sites were assessed as moderately polluted. On the other hand differences in morphological degradation of banks and channel of selected sites enabled us to relate hydromorphological stress and biotic metrics and taxa. Physical habitat quality was assessed using River habitat survey (RHS) methodology. A downstream-upstream gradient of physical habitat degradation was observed and related to the macroinvertebrate community characteristics. Similarity analyses and biotic metrics were calculated and correlated with results of the RHS analyses. Composition of the macroinvertebrate assemblages did not follow the longitudinal pattern of habitat modification observed by the RHS analysis. However, some metrics corresponded well. Percentage of detritivores, percentage of Caenis luctuosa, number of individuals, percentage of EPT individuals were best predictors of changes in the physical habitat quality. However, the metric percentage of EPT individuals was negatively correlated to the habitat degradation, what is in contradiction with results from studies of other authors. 相似文献
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Živana Ninčević Gladan Ivona Marasović Branka Grbec Sanda Skejić Mia Bužančić Grozdan Kušpilić Slavica Matijević Frano Matić 《Estuaries and Coasts》2010,33(2):376-383
Evaluation of a 45-year data set of primary production (PP), a 30-year data set of phytoplankton biomass, and a 51-year data
set of species composition shows an increase of phytoplankton biomass and abundance in the period from the mid-1980s to the
mid-1990s. Phytoplankton biomass showed bimodal seasonal cycles, with winter and spring maxima, which did not change over
the past 30 years. Diatoms were the most abundant functional group and they prevailed during the colder part of the year while
the dinoflagellate contribution to the phytoplankton community increased in the warmer period from May to August. Diatoms
showed a significant negative correlation with sea surface temperature (SST), while dinoflagellates were positively correlated
with SST. An increase of phytoplankton abundance, particularly dinoflagellate, in the period from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s
coincided with years characterized by a high North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Primary production and chlorophyll a concentration in the spring period were negatively correlated with the NAO winter (DJFM) index, probably caused by increased
precipitation associated with a low or negative NAO index. PP in winter during the mixing period was positively related to
the NAO winter index associated with higher temperatures and dry conditions which brought more clear days and increased input
of solar radiation. 相似文献
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