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Ha-Gyu Jeong Joong-Bae Ahn Joonlee Lee Kyo-Moon Shim Myung-Pyo Jung 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2020,139(3):923-934
Improved daily precipitation estimations were attempted using the parameter-elevation regressions on a parameter-elevation regression on independent slopes model (PRISM) with inverse-distance weighting (IDW) and a precipitation-masking algorithm for precipitation areas. The PRISM (PRISM_ORG) suffers two overestimation problems when the daily precipitation is estimated: overestimation of the precipitation intensity in mountainous regions and overestimation of the local precipitation areas. In order to solve the problem of overestimating the precipitation intensity, we used the IDW technique that employs the same input stations as those used in the PRISM regression (PRISM_IDW). A precipitation-masking algorithm that selectively masks the precipitation estimation grid points was additionally applied to the PRISM_IDW results (PRISM_MSK). For 6 months from March to August 2012, daily precipitation data were produced in a horizontal resolution of 1 km based on the above two experiments and PRISM_ORG. Afterwards, each experiment was evaluated for improvements. The monthly root mean squared errors (RMSEs) of PRISM_IDW and PRISM_MSK were reduced by 0.83 mm/day and 0.86 mm/day, respectively, compared to PRISM_ORG. 相似文献
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Jinling PIAO Wen CHEN Ke WEI Yong LIU Hans-F. GRAF Joong-Bae AHN Alexander POGORELTSEV 《大气科学进展》2017,34(4):456-468
A decadal change in summer rainfall in the Asian inland plateau(AIP) region is identified around 1999. This decadal change is characterized by an abrupt decrease in summer rainfall of about 15.7% of the climatological average amount,leading to prolonged drought in the Asian inland plateau region. Both the surface air temperature and potential evapotranspiration in the AIP show a significant increase, while the soil moisture exhibits a decrease, after the late 1990s. Furthermore,the normalized difference vegetation index shows an apparent decreasing trend during 1999–2007. Three different drought indices—the standardized precipitation index, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, and the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index—present pronounced climate anomalies during 1999–2007, indicating dramatic drought exacerbation in the region after the late 1990s. This decadal change in the summer rainfall may be attributable to a wave-like teleconnection pattern from Western Europe to Asia. A set of model sensitivity experiments suggests that the summer warming sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic could induce this teleconnection pattern over Eurasia, resulting in recent drought in the AIP region. 相似文献
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Joong-Bae Ahn Sera Jo Myoung-Seok Suh Dong-Hyun Cha Dong-Kyou Lee Song-You Hong Seung-Ki Min Seong-Chan Park Hyun-Suk Kang Kyo-Moon Shim 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(2):223-236
The change of extreme precipitation is assessed with the HadGEM2-AO - 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) chain, which is a national downscaling project undertaken cooperatively by several South Korean institutes aimed at producing regional climate change projection with fine resolution (12.5 km) around the Korean Peninsula. The downscaling domain, resolution and lateral boundary conditions are held the same among the 5 RCMs to minimize the uncertainties from model configuration. Climatological changes reveal a statistically significant increase in the mid-21st century (2046- 2070; Fut1) and the late-21st century (2076-2100; Fut2) precipitation properties related to extreme precipitation, such as precipitation intensity and average of upper 5 percentile daily precipitation, with respect to the reference period (1981-2005). Changes depending on the intensity categories also present a clear trend of decreasing light rain and increasing heavy rain. In accordance with these results, the change of 1-in-50 year maximum precipitation intensity over South Korea is estimated by the GEV method. The result suggests that the 50-year return value (RV50) will change from -32.69% to 72.7% and from -31.6% to 96.32% in Fut1 and from -31.97% to 86.25% and from -19.45% to 134.88% in Fut2 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, at the 90% confidence level. This study suggests that multi-RCMs can be used to reduce uncertainties and assess the future change of extreme precipitation more reliably. Moreover, future projection of the regional climate change contains uncertainties evoked from not only driving GCM but also RCM. Therefore, multi-GCM and multi-RCM studies are expected to provide more robust projection. 相似文献
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Myoung-Seok Suh Seok-Geun Oh Young-Suk Lee Joong-Bae Ahn Dong-Hyun Cha Dong-Kyou Lee Song-You Hong Seung-Ki Min Seong-Chan Park Hyun-Suk Kang 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(2):151-169
We projected surface air temperature changes over South Korea during the mid (2026-2050) and late (2076-2100) 21st century against the current climate (1981-2005) using the simulation results from five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, coupled with the Atmosphere- Ocean (HadGEM2-AO), and two ensemble methods (equal weighted averaging, weighted averaging based on Taylor’s skill score) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In general, the five RCM ensembles captured the spatial and seasonal variations, and probability distribution of temperature over South Korea reasonably compared to observation. They particularly showed a good performance in simulating annual temperature range compared to HadGEM2-AO. In future simulation, the temperature over South Korea will increase significantly for all scenarios and seasons. Stronger warming trends are projected in the late 21st century than in the mid-21st century, in particular under RCP8.5. The five RCM ensembles projected that temperature changes for the mid/late 21st century relative to the current climate are +1.54°C/+1.92°C for RCP2.6, +1.68°C/+2.91°C for RCP4.5, +1.17°C/+3.11°C for RCP6.0, and +1.75°C/+4.73°C for RCP8.5. Compared to the temperature projection of HadGEM2-AO, the five RCM ensembles projected smaller increases in temperature for all RCP scenarios and seasons. The inter-RCM spread is proportional to the simulation period (i.e., larger in the late-21st than mid-21st century) and significantly greater (about four times) in winter than summer for all RCP scenarios. Therefore, the modeled predictions of temperature increases during the late 21st century, particularly for winter temperatures, should be used with caution. 相似文献
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The 2018 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games will be held in Pyeongchang, Korea, during February and March. We examined the near surface winds and wind gusts along the sloping surface at two outdoor venues in Pyeongchang during February and March using surface wind data. The outdoor venues are located in a complex, mountainous terrain, and hence the near-surface winds form intricate patterns due to the interplay between large-scale and locally forced winds. During February and March, the dominant wind at the ridge level is westerly; however, a significant wind direction change is observed along the sloping surface at the venues. The winds on the sloping surface are also influenced by thermal forcing,showing increased upslope flow during daytime. When neutral air flows over the hill, the windward and leeward flows show a significantly different behavior. A higher correlation of the wind speed between upper-and lower-level stations is shown in the windward region compared with the leeward region. The strong synoptic wind, small width of the ridge, and steep leeward ridge slope angle provide favorable conditions for flow separation at the leeward foot of the ridge. The gust factor increases with decreasing surface elevation and is larger during daytime than nighttime. A significantly large gust factor is also observed in the leeward region. 相似文献
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Im Eun-Soon Choi Yeon-Woo Ahn Joong-Bae 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(3-4):1241-1254
This study assesses the hydroclimatic response to global warming over East Asia from multi-model ensemble regional projections. Four different regional climate models (RCMs), namely, WRF, HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, and GRIMs, are used for dynamical downscaling of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2–Atmosphere and Ocean (HadGEM2-AO) global projections forced by the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Annual mean precipitation, hydroclimatic intensity index (HY-INT), and wet and dry extreme indices are analyzed to identify the robust behavior of hydroclimatic change in response to enhanced emission scenarios using high-resolution (12.5 km) and long-term (1981–2100) daily precipitation. Ensemble projections exhibit increased hydroclimatic intensity across the entire domain and under both the RCP scenarios. However, a geographical pattern with predominantly intensified HY-INT does not fully emerge in the mean precipitation change because HY-INT is tied to the changes in the precipitation characteristics rather than to those in the precipitation amount. All projections show an enhancement of high intensity precipitation and a reduction of weak intensity precipitation, which lead to a possible shift in hydroclimatic regime prone to an increase of both wet and dry extremes. In general, projections forced by the RCP8.5 scenario tend to produce a much stronger response than do those by the RCP4.5 scenario. However, the temperature increase under the RCP4.5 scenario is sufficiently large to induce significant changes in hydroclimatic intensity, despite the relatively uncertain change in mean precipitation. Likewise, the forced responses of HY-INT and the two extreme indices are more robust than that of mean precipitation, in terms of the statistical significance and model agreement.
相似文献9.
We present an analysis of a high resolution multi-decadal simulation of recent climate (1971–2000) over the Korean Peninsula
with a regional climate model (RegCM3) using a one-way double-nested system. Mean climate state as well as frequency and intensity
of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales, with focus on surface air temperature and
precipitation. The mother intermediate resolution model domain encompasses the eastern regions of Asia at 60 km grid spacing
while the high resolution nested domain covers the Korean Peninsula at 20 km grid spacing. The simulation spans the 30-year
period of January 1971 through December 2000, and initial and lateral boundary conditions for the mother domain are provided
from ECHO-G fields based on the IPCC SRES B2 scenario. The model shows a good performance in reproducing the climatological
and regional characteristics of surface variables, although some persistent biases are present. Main results are as follows:
(1) The RegCM3 successfully simulates the fine-scale structure of the temperature field due to topographic forcing but it
shows a systematic cold bias mostly due to an underestimate of maximum temperature. (2) The frequency distribution of simulated
daily mean temperature agrees well with the observed seasonal and spatial patterns. In the summer season, however, daily variability
is underestimated. (3) The RegCM3 simulation adequately captures the seasonal evolution of precipitation associated to the
East Asia monsoon. In particular, the simulated winter precipitation is remarkably good, clearly showing typical precipitation
patterns that occur on the northwestern areas of Japan during the winter monsoon. Although summer precipitation is underestimated,
area-averaged time series of precipitation over Korea show that the RegCM3 agrees better with observations than ECHO-G both
in terms of seasonal evolution and precipitation amounts. (4) Heavy rainfall phenomena exceeding 300 mm/day are simulated
only at the high resolution of the double nested domain. (5) The model shows a tendency to overestimate the number of precipitation
days and to underestimate the precipitation intensities. (6) A CSEOF analysis reveals that the model captures the strength
of the annual cycle and the surface warming trend throughout the simulated period. 相似文献
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A new algorithm for the detection of fog/stratus over the ocean from the GMS-5 infrared (IR) channel data is presented. The new algorithm uses a clear-sky radiance composite map (CSCM) to compare the hourly observations of the IR radiance. The feasibility of the simple comparison is justified by the theoretical simulations of the fog effect on the measured radiance using a radiative transfer model. The simulation results show that the presence of fog can be detected provided the visibility is worse than 1 km and the background clear-sky radiances are accurate enough with known uncertainties. For the current study, an accurate CSCM is constructed using a modified spatial and temporal coherence method, which takes advantage of the high temporal resolution of the GMS-5 observations. The new algorithm is applied for the period of 10-12 May 1999, when heavy sea fog formed near the southwest coast of the Korean Peninsula. Comparisons of the fog/stratus index, defined as the difference between the measured and clear-sky brightness temperature, from the new algorithm to the results from other methods, such as the dual channel difference of NOAA/AVHRR and the earth albedo method, show a good agreement. The fog/stratus index also compares favorably with the ground observations of visibility and relative humidity. The general characteristics of the fog/stratus index and visibility are relatively well matched, although the relationship among the absolute values, the fog/stratus index, visibility, and relative humidity, varies with time. This variation is thought to be due to the variation of the atmospheric conditions and the characteristics of fog/stratus, which affect the derived fog/stratus index. 相似文献