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Can near-term public support of renewable energy technologies contain the increase of mitigation costs due to delays of implementing emission caps at the global level? To answer this question we design a set of first and second best scenarios to analyze the impact of early deployment of renewable energy technologies on welfare and emission timing to achieve atmospheric carbon stabilization by 2100. We use the global multiregional energy?Ceconomy?Cclimate hybrid model REMIND-R as a tool for this analysis. An important design feature of the policy scenarios is the timing of climate policy. Immediate climate policy contains the mitigation costs at less than 1% even if the CO2 concentration target is 410?ppm by 2100. Delayed climate policy increases the costs significantly because the absence of a strong carbon price signal continues the carbon intensive growth path. The additional costs can be decreased by early technology policies supporting renewable energy technologies because emissions grow less, alternative energy technologies are increased in capacity and their costs are reduced through learning by doing. The effects of early technology policy are different in scenarios with immediate carbon pricing. In the case of delayed climate policy, the emission path can be brought closer to the first-best solution, whereas in the case of immediate climate policy additional technology policy would lead to deviations from the optimal emission path. Hence, technology policy in the delayed climate policy case reduces costs, but in the case of immediate climate policy they increase. However, the near-term emission reductions are smaller in the case of delayed climate policies. At the regional level the effects on mitigation costs are heterogeneously distributed. For the USA and Europe early technology policy has a positive welfare effect for immediate and delayed climate policies. In contrast, India looses in both cases. China loses in the case of immediate climate policy, but profits in the delayed case. Early support of renewable energy technologies devalues the stock of emission allowances, and this effect is considerable for delayed climate policies. In combination with the initial allocation rule of contraction and convergence a relatively well-endowed country like India loses and potential importers like the EU gain from early renewable deployment. 相似文献
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Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Marcello Vichi Elisa Manzini Pier Giuseppe Fogli Andrea Alessandri Lavinia Patara Enrico Scoccimarro Simona Masina Antonio Navarra 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(9-10):1929-1947
Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric ??target?? concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the projected concentration pathways of aerosol in the next decades control the evolution of surface ocean biogeochemistry in the second half of this century more than the specific pathways of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. 相似文献
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Fabrizio Messina Michela Todaro Gianpiero Buscarino Lavinia Vaccaro Marco Cannas Franco M. Gelardi 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2016,43(3):171-179
We studied the photoluminescence properties of a sample of SiO2-clathrate Melanophlogite, a crystalline microporous material which is found in nature as a rare mineral. Upon β irradiation, the material displays an intense light emission under near-UV illumination. We studied in detail this optical activity by steady-state and time-resolved photoluminescence measurements as a function of temperature. The spectroscopic properties we find can be ascribed to a population of quasi-free molecules trapped within each of the two different types of cage available in the structure of this clathrate, although the spectroscopic properties of the guest molecules are affected by their interactions with the host matrix. Based on the available data, we attribute the observed photoluminescence to trapped S2 molecules, emitting from their excited 3Σ u ? or 3Π u electronic states, depending on the cage they are trapped in and on temperature. Our results have an impact on the fundamental understanding of host–guest interactions characteristic of microporous systems such as clathrates. Indeed, the data highlight that even a relatively weak coupling between quasi-free S2 molecules and the two types of cages provided by the Melanophlogite host has a surprisingly complex influence on the optical properties of the guest. 相似文献
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Nico?BauerEmail author Ioanna?Mouratiadou Gunnar?Luderer Lavinia?Baumstark Robert?J.?Brecha Ottmar?Edenhofer Elmar?Kriegler 《Climatic change》2016,135(1):69-83
We analyze the dynamics of global fossil resource markets under different assumptions for the supply of fossil fuel resources, development pathways for energy demand, and climate policy settings. Resource markets, in particular the oil market, are characterized by a large discrepancy between costs of resource extraction and commodity prices on international markets. We explain this observation in terms of (a) the intertemporal scarcity rent, (b) regional price differentials arising from trade and transport costs, (c) heterogeneity and inertia in the extraction sector. These effects are captured by the REMIND model. We use the model to explore economic effects of changes in coal, oil and gas markets induced by climate-change mitigation policies. A large share of fossil fuel reserves and resources will be used in the absence of climate policy leading to atmospheric GHG concentrations well beyond a level of 550 ppm CO2-eq. This result holds independently of different assumptions about energy demand and fossil fuel availability. Achieving ambitious climate targets will drastically reduce fossil fuel consumption, in particular the consumption of coal. Conventional oil and gas as well as non-conventional oil reserves are still exhausted. We find the net present value of fossil fuel rent until 2100 at 30tril.US$ with a large share of oil and a small share of coal. This is reduced by 9 and 12tril.US$ to achieve climate stabilization at 550 and 450 ppm CO2-eq, respectively. This loss is, however, overcompensated by revenues from carbon pricing that are 21 and 32tril.US$, respectively. The overcompensation also holds under variations of energy demand and fossil fuel supply. 相似文献
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Giovanni Chiodini Stefano Caliro Giorgio Caramanna Domenico Granieri Carmine Minopoli Roberto Moretti Lavinia Perotta Guido Ventura 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2006,163(4):759-780
The marine sector surrounding Panarea Island (Aeolian Islands, South Italy) is affected by widespread submarine emissions
of CO2 -rich gases and thermal water discharges which have been known since the Roman Age. On November 3rd, 2002 an anomalous degassing event affected the area, probably in response to a submarine explosion. The concentrations of
minor reactive gases (CO, CH4 and H2) of samples collected in November and December, 2002 show drastic compositional changes when compared to previous samples
collected from the same area in the 1980s. In particular the samples collected after the November 3rd phenomenon display relative increases in H2 and CO and a strong decrease in the CH4 contents, while other gas species show no significant change. The interaction of the original gas with seawater explains
the variable contents of CO2, H2S, N2, Ar and He which characterize the different samples, but cannot explain the large variations of CO, CH4 and H2 which are instead compatible with changes in the redox, temperature and pressure conditions of the system. Two models, both
implying an increasing input of magmatic fluids are compatible with the observed variations of minor reactive species. In
the first one, the input of magmatic fluids drives the hydrothermal system towards atypical (more oxidizing) redox conditions,
slowly pressurizing the system up to a critical state. In the second one, the hydrothermal system is flashed by the rising
high-T volcanic fluid, suddenly released by a magmatic body at depth. The two models have different implications for volcanic
surveillance and risk assessment: In the first case, the November 3rd event may represent both the culmination of a relatively slow process which caused the overpressurization of the hydrothermal
system and the beginning of a new phase of quiescence. The possible evolution of the second model is unforeseeable because
it is mainly related to the thermal, baric and compositional state of the deep magmatic system that is poorly known. 相似文献
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Christopher P. Bobko Benjamin Gathier J. Alberto Ortega Franz‐Josef Ulm Lavinia Borges Younane N. Abousleiman 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2011,35(17):1854-1876
An inverse micromechanics approach allows interpretation of nanoindentation results to deliver cohesive‐frictional strength behavior of the porous clay binder phase in shale. A recently developed strength homogenization model, using the Linear Comparison Composite approach, considers porous clay as a granular material with a cohesive‐frictional solid phase. This strength homogenization model is employed in a Limit Analysis Solver to study indentation hardness responses and develop scaling relationships for indentation hardness with clay packing density. Using an inverse approach for nanoindentation on a variety of shale materials gives estimates of packing density distributions within each shale and demonstrates that there exists shale‐independent scaling relations of the cohesion and of the friction coefficient that vary with clay packing density. It is observed that the friction coefficient, which may be interpreted as a degree of pressure‐sensitivity in strength, tends to zero as clay packing density increases to one. In contrast, cohesion reaches its highest value as clay packing density increases to one. The physical origins of these phenomena are discussed, and related to fractal packing of these nanogranular materials. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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