Reducing uncertainty in stochastic streamflow generation and reservoir sizing by combining observed,reconstructed and projected streamflow     

Jason?PatskoskiEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  A.?Sankarasubramanian 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(4):1065-1083

Reservoir sizing is one of the most important aspects of water resources engineering as the storage in a reservoir must be sufficient to supply water during extended droughts. Typically, observed streamflow is used to stochastically generate multiple realizations of streamflow to estimate the required storage based on the Sequent Peak Algorithm (SQP). The main limitation in this approach is that the parameters of the stochastic model are purely derived from the observed record (limited to less than 80 years of data) which does not have information related to prehistoric droughts. Further, reservoir sizing is typically estimated to meet future increase in water demand, and there is no guarantee that future streamflow over the planning period will be representative of past streamflow records. In this context, reconstructed streamflow records, usually estimated based on tree ring chronologies, provide better estimates of prehistoric droughts, and future streamflow records over the planning period could be obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) which provide 30 year near-term climate change projections. In this study, we developed paleo streamflow records and future streamflow records for 30 years are obtained by forcing the projected precipitation and temperature from the GCMs over a lumped watershed model. We propose combining observed, reconstructed and projected streamflows to generate synthetic streamflow records using a Bayesian framework that provides the posterior distribution of reservoir storage estimates. The performance of the Bayesian framework is compared to a traditional stochastic streamflow generation approach. Findings based on the split-sample validation show that the Bayesian approach yielded generated streamflow traces more representative of future streamflow conditions than the traditional stochastic approach thereby, reducing uncertainty on storage estimates corresponding to higher reliabilities. Potential strategies for improving future streamflow projections and its utility in reservoir sizing and capacity expansion projects are also discussed.  相似文献   

Quantitative assessment of inundation risks from physical contributors associated with future storm surges: a case study of Typhoon Maemi (2003)     

Hwang  Sooncheol  Son  Sangyoung  Lee  Chilwoo  Yoon  Hyun-Doug 《Natural Hazards》2020,104(2):1389-1411

Natural Hazards - Future storm-induced inundation risks were assessed by performing storm surge modeling based on Typhoon Maemi (2003) under the generic climate change scenarios proposed by IPCC...  相似文献   

The Kellwasser events in the Upper Devonian Frasnian to Famennian transition in the Toc Tat Formation,northern Vietnam     

Toshifumi Komatsu  Ryota Urakawa  Toshitaka Inada  Kazuki Yamauchi  Takumi Maekawa  Reishi Takashima  Mark Williams  Phong D. Nguyen  Hung D. Doan  Minh T. Nguyen  Shuji Niko  Gengo Tanaka  Tatsuhiko Yamaguchi 《Island Arc》2019,28(1)

Upper Devonian carbonates of the Toc Tat Formation in the Si Phai Pass area of Dong Van District, northern Vietnam were deposited in carbonate platform, slope, and basin environments. These carbonates yield abundant conodonts indicative of the Palmatolepis nasuta, Pa. linguiformis and Pa. triangularis zones, the Frasnian–Famennian stage boundary being identified by the first occurrence of Pa. triangularis. Two positive carbon isotope excursions are recognized, the lower excursion peaking in the interval of the lower to middle Pa. nasuta Zone, whilst the upper excursion peaks just above the local Frasnian–Famennian boundary. Based on the biostratigraphy, these excursions equate to the Lower and Upper Kellwasser events. Locally, tentaculitoid taxa (Nowakia, Styliolina, Homoctenus, and Metastyliolina?) are abundant in the interval of the Pa. nasuta Zone, but show a drastic decline in abundance before the Lower Kellwasser Event, and only two taxa survived into the Famennian.  相似文献   

Characterization of Frequency and Aggregation of the Antarctic Krill (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Euphausia superba</Emphasis>) Using Acoustics     

Seok-Gwan?Choi  Eun-A?Yoon  Doo-Hae?An  Sangdeuk?Chung  Jaebong?Lee  Kyounghoon?LeeEmail author 《Ocean Science Journal》2018,53(4):667-677

In this study, the dB difference and characteristics of krill swarms inhabiting Subarea 48.1, which includes the west and south of the South Shetland Island and the Elephant Island peripheries, were estimated to distinguish Antarctic krill, using acoustics. From April 13 to 24, 2016, acoustic data were collected along 24 survey lines using the frequencies 38 and 120 kHz, and middle trawling was performed at 7 stations. Using the difference between the dB values of two volume backscattering strength (Sv) frequencies (38 and 120 kHz), a clear acoustic distinction could be made between Antarctic krill (4.9 to 12.0 dB) and fish (?4.0 to ?0.2 dB). The distributions and mean Sv of krill swarms in the Elephant Island peripheries and south of South Shetland Island were higher than those in the west of South Shetland Island. The mean length/ height ratio of krill swarms in the west of the South Shetland Island (64.5) was higher than that in the south (35.9) and the Elephant Island peripheries (33.8), with the length of the aggregations exceeding their height. Most krill swarms were distributed between the surface layer (less than 10 m below sea level) and within 200 m of water depth. These results are expected to serve as baseline data for evaluating krill density and biomass by distinguishing them from fish, using acoustics.  相似文献   

Assessing conservation practices in Amalacaxco Gorge (Izta-Popo National Park,Central Mexico) using fallout ~(137)Cs and Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL)     

MU?OZ-SALINAS E  CASTILLO M 《山地科学学报》2018,(3)

This study aims to assess conservation practices in Izta-Popo National Park(Central Mexico) by evaluating the mechanisms of sediment transfer. We applied a methodology based on fallout ~(137)Cs and optically stimulated luminescence(OSL) analysis. This was tested in the upper catchment of Amalacaxco Gorge, selected for being one of the sectors of the park in which man-made actions have been implemented in last decades to favor forest growth in the alpine grassland and to reduce the effect of water runoff. We quantified the ~(137)Cs activity using gamma and beta spectrometry of fine sediment grains extracted from the surface of parcels of 0.4 m2 in areas of natural forest, natural alpine grassland, alpine grassland with conservation practices, ravines and trails. In general, ~(137)Cs values increases as local slope decreases as it was expected. The natural forest is the most stable area in terms of soil erosion and sediment accumulation and, mean ~(137)Cs activity was taken as reference to assess cumulative zones, with higher ~(137)Cs values and erosive, with lower. We found that trails are accumulative surfaces but in other areas, erosion predominates. Man-made ditches, trenches and afforestation in the alpine grassland have higher ~(137)Cs values than thenatural grassland, which indicates that conservation practices are limiting the sediment transfer from hillslopes to channels, however, soil retention is less than in the natural grassland. Additionally, we evaluated the luminescence(OSL) values obtained from samples extracted from the sediment transported in ravines that are cutting into different sectors of the study area to assess the grade of resetting of fluvial materials. These luminescence results indicated that the sediment transported in ravines that are cutting into the natural forest and alpine grassland is bleached more efficiently than the sediment transported in the alpine grassland with conservation practices. Results of fallout ~(137)Cs and luminescence strongly suggest that man-made actions in this part of the Izta-Popo National Park are dramatically modifying the natural mechanisms of sediment transfer and favoring soil erosion. We conclude that made ditches, trenches and afforestation are not an effective conservation practice in Amalacaxco Gorge because they are promoting soil erosion instead of reducing it.  相似文献   

Features in REE and Methane Anomalies Distribution in the East China Sea Water Column: a Comparison with the South China Sea     

Le Duc Luong  Shakirov  Renat B.  Hoang  Nguyen  Shinjo  Ryuichi  Obzhirov  Anatoly  Syrbu  Nadezhda  Shakirova  Maria 《Water Resources》2019,46(5):807-816

Water Resources - This paper presents review of dissolved Rare Earth Elements (REE) and methane anomalies distribution in the East China Sea water column. In general, the REE concentrations of the...  相似文献   

准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷西斜坡三叠系百口泉组扇三角洲优质储集层预测          下载免费PDF全文

桑林翔  刘军  王贵文  王苏天  李全  张云龙 《古地理学报》2020,22(6):1053-1064

针对准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷西斜坡风南地区三叠系百口泉组扇三角洲砂岩物性空间变化大、优质储集层(孔隙度大于7.4%,渗透率大于0.05×10^-3μm²)预测难的问题,在沉积岩石学、地震沉积学以及地震反演和解释理论指导下,综合利用测井、岩心和三维地震等资料开展了高精度层序地层划分、沉积微相描述和优质储集层地震反演研究。建立了风南井区四级层序地层格架,明确了扇三角洲多期水进水退的充填过程,指出SSQ3和SSQ5是优质储集层的发育层系;识别出扇三角洲平原分流河道、河道间和扇三角洲前缘水下分流水道、河口坝、席状砂等沉积微相,指出扇三角洲平原是优质储集层发育相带;通过应用高分辨层序地层纵向边界和沉积相横向边界约束,进行分层相控叠后地震波阻抗反演,提升储集层预测精度,在SSQ3和SSQ5预测5个优质储集层发育区,提出3口井的井位建议,钻探均获工业油流。  相似文献   

Responses of chemically active and naturally fractured shale under time‐dependent mechanical loading and ionic solution exposure          下载免费PDF全文

Chao Liu  Son K. Hoang  Younane N. Abousleiman 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2018,42(1):34-69

In this paper, the analytical dual‐porosity dual‐permeability poromechanics solution for saturated cylinders is extended to account for electrokinetic effects and material transverse isotropy, which simulate the responses of chemically active naturally fractured shale under time‐dependent mechanical loading and ionic solution exposure. The solution addresses the stresses, fracture pore pressure, matrix pore pressure, fluid fluxes, ion concentration evolution, and displacements due to the applied stress, pore pressure, and solute concentration difference between the sample and the circulation fluid. The presented solution will not only help validate numerical simulations but also assist in calibrating and interpreting laboratory results on dual‐porosity dual‐permeability shale. It is recommended that the analytical solutions of radial and axial displacements be used to match the corresponding laboratory‐recorded data to determine shale dual permeability and chemo‐electrical parameters including membrane coefficient, ions diffusion coefficients, and electro‐osmotic permeability.  相似文献   

Analysis of seafloor backscatter strength dependence on the survey azimuth using multibeam echosounder data     

Xavier?LurtonEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Dimitrios?Eleftherakis  Jean-Marie?Augustin 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2018,39(1-2):183-203

The sediment backscatter strength measured by multibeam echosounders is a key feature for seafloor mapping either qualitative (image mosaics) or quantitative (extraction of classifying features). An important phenomenon, often underestimated, is the dependence of the backscatter level on the azimuth angle imposed by the survey line directions: strong level differences at varying azimuth can be observed in case of organized roughness of the seabed, usually caused by tide currents over sandy sediments. This paper presents a number of experimental results obtained from shallow-water cruises using a 300-kHz multibeam echosounder and specially dedicated to the study of this azimuthal effect, with a specific configuration of the survey strategy involving a systematic coverage of reference areas following “compass rose” patterns. The results show for some areas a very strong dependence of the backscatter level, up to about 10-dB differences at intermediate oblique angles, although the presence of these ripples cannot be observed directly—neither from the bathymetry data nor from the sonar image, due to the insufficient resolution capability of the sonar. An elementary modeling of backscattering from rippled interfaces explains and comforts these observations. The consequences of this backscatter dependence upon survey azimuth on the current strategies of backscatter data acquisition and exploitation are discussed.  相似文献   

Fine-scale Microbial Communities Associated with Manganese Nodules in Deep-sea Sediment of the Korea Deep Ocean Study Area in the Northeast Equatorial Pacific     

Hyeyoun Cho  Kyeong-Hong Kim  Seung Kyu Son  Jung-Ho Hyun 《Ocean Science Journal》2018,53(2):337-353

Despite its potential significance for industrial utilization, any activities associated with the mining of manganese (Mn) nodules might have substantial impacts on benthic ecosystems. Because microorganisms respond quickly to changing environmental conditions, a study of microbial communities provides a relevant proxy to assess possible changes in benthic ecosystems associated with mining activities. We investigated fine-scale microbial community composition and diversity inside and on the surface of Mn nodules and in nearby deep-sea sediments in the Korea Deep Ocean Study (KODOS) area located in the Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone (CCFZ) of the northeast equatorial Pacific. Although microbial cell density was lower within nodules (3.21 × 10⁶ cells g^-1) than in sediment (2.14 × 10⁸ cells g^-1), nodules provided a unique habitat for microorganisms. Manganese-oxidizing bacteria including Hyphomicrobium and Aurantimonas in Alphaproteobacteria and Marinobacter in Gammaproteobacteria were abundant in nodules, which implied that these bacteria play a significant role in nodule formation. In contrast, Idiomarina in Gammaproteobacteria and Erythrobacter and Sulfitobacter in Alphaproteobacteria were abundant in sediments. Meanwhile, Thaumarchaeota, a phylum that consists of ammonia-oxidizing chemolithoautotrophs, were the predominant archaeal group both in nodules and sediment. Overall, microbial communities in Mn nodules were unique compared to those observed in sediments. Furthermore, the phylogenetic composition of microorganisms in the KODOS area was distinguishable from that in the nodule provinces claimed by China and Germany in the CCFZ and nodule fields in the central South Pacific Gyre, respectively.  相似文献