排序方式： 共有29条查询结果，搜索用时 18 毫秒
1.
Jalal Samia Arnaud Temme Arnold K. Bregt Jakob Wallinga John Stuiver Fausto Guzzetti Francesca Ardizzone Mauro Rossi 《Landslides》2018,15(11):2129-2144
Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling. 相似文献
2.
Developing,choosing and using landscape evolution models to inform field‐based landscape reconstruction studies 
下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 A.J.A.M. Temme J. Armitage M. Attal Wouter van Gorp T.J. Coulthard J.M. Schoorl 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(13):2167-2183
Landscape evolution models (LEMs) are an increasingly popular resource for geomorphologists as they can operate as virtual laboratories where the implications of hypotheses about processes over human to geological timescales can be visualized at spatial scales from catchments to mountain ranges. Hypothetical studies for idealized landscapes have dominated, although model testing in real landscapes has also been undertaken. So far however, numerical landscape evolution models have rarely been used to aid field‐based reconstructions of the geomorphic evolution of actual landscapes. To help make this use more common, we review numerical landscape evolution models from the point of view of model use in field reconstruction studies. We first give a broad overview of the main assumptions and choices made in many LEMs to help prospective users select models appropriate to their field situation. We then summarize for various timescales which data are typically available and which models are appropriate. Finally, we provide guidance on how to set up a model study as a function of available data and the type of research question. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
Rens J. H. Masselink Tobias Heckmann Arnaud J. A. M. Temme Niels S. Anders Harm P. A. Gooren Saskia D. Keesstra 《水文研究》2017,31(1):207-220
Hydrological connectivity describes the physical coupling (linkages) of different elements within a landscape regarding (sub‐) surface flows. A firm understanding of hydrological connectivity is important for catchment management applications, for example, habitat and species protection, and for flood resistance and resilience improvement. Thinking about (geomorphological) systems as networks can lead to new insights, which has also been recognized within the scientific community, seeing the recent increase in the use of network (graph) theory within the geosciences. Network theory supports the analysis and understanding of complex systems by providing data structures for modelling objects and their linkages, and a versatile toolbox to quantitatively appraise network structure and properties. The objective of this study was to characterize and quantify overland flow connectivity dynamics on hillslopes in a humid sub‐Mediterranean environment by using a combination of high‐resolution digital‐terrain models, overland flow sensors and a network approach. Results showed that there are significant differences between overland flow connectivity on agricultural areas and semi‐natural shrubs areas. Significant positive correlations between connectivity and precipitation characteristics were found. Significant negative correlations between connectivity and soil moisture were found, most likely because of soil water repellency and/or soil surface crusting. The combination of structural networks and dynamic networks for determining potential connectivity and actual connectivity proved a powerful tool for analysing overland flow connectivity. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
5.
Abstract Starting from the nonlinear shallow water equations of a homogeneous rotating fluid we derive the equation describing the evolution of vorticity by a fluctuating bottom topography of small amplitude, using a multiple scale expansion in a small parameter, which is the topographic length scale relative to the tidal wave length. The exact response functions of residual vorticity for a sinusoidal bottom topography are compared with those obtained by a primitive perturbation series and by harmonic truncation, showing the former to be invalid for small topographic length scales and the latter to be only a fair approximation for vorticity produced by planetary vortex stretching. In deriving the exact shape of the horizontal residual velocity profile at a step-like break in the bottom topography, it is shown that the Lagrangian profile only exists in a strip having the width of the amplitude of the tidal excursion at both sides of the break, and that it vanishes outside that interval. Moreover, in the limit of small amplitude topography at least, it vanishes altogether for the generation mechanism by means of planetary vortex stretching. The Eulerian profile is shown to extend over twice the interval of the Lagrangian profile both for production by vortex stretching and by differential bottom friction. These finite intervals over which the residual velocity profiles exist for a step-like topography are not reproduced by harmonic truncation of the basic equation. This method gives exponentially decaying profiles, indicating spurious horizontal diffusion of vorticity. In terms of orders of magnitude, the method of harmonic truncation is reliable for residual velocity produced by vortex stretching but it overestimates the residual velocity produced by differential bottom friction by a factor 2. 相似文献
6.
Landscapes evolve in complex, non‐linear ways over Quaternary timespans. Integrated geomorphological field studies usually yield plausible hypotheses about timing and impact of process activity. Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) have the potential to test and falsify these landscape evolution hypotheses. Despite this potential, LEMs have mainly been used with hypothetical data and rarely to simulate the evolution of an actual landscape. In this paper, we use a LEM (LAPSUS: LandscApe ProcesS modelling at mUlti dimensions and scaleS) to explore if it is possible to test and falsify conclusions of an earlier field study on 50 ka landscape evolution in Okhombe Valley, KwaZulu Natal, South Africa. In this LEM, five landscape processes interact without supervision: water driven erosion and deposition, creep, solifluction, biological weathering and frost weathering. Calibration matched model results to three types of qualitative fieldwork observations: individual process activity over time, relative process activity over time and net landscape changes over time. Results demonstrate that landscape evolution of the Okhombe valley can be plausibly simulated. A particularly interesting and persistent feature of model results are erosional and depositional phases that lag climatic drivers both by decades, and by several ka within a few hundred meters. The longer lag has not been reported for this spatial scale before and may be an effect of slow landscape‐soil‐vegetation feedbacks. The combined modelling and fieldwork results allow a more complete understanding of these responses to climate change and can fill in hiatuses in the stratigraphical record. Suggestions are made for methodological adaptations for future LEM studies. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
Do landslides follow landslides? Insights in path dependency from a multi-temporal landslide inventory 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Jalal Samia Arnaud Temme Arnold Bregt Jakob Wallinga Fausto Guzzetti Francesca Ardizzone Mauro Rossi 《Landslides》2017,14(2):547-558
Landslides are a major category of natural disasters, causing loss of lives, livelihoods and property. The critical roles played by triggering (such as extreme rainfall and earthquakes), and intrinsic factors (such as slope steepness, soil properties and lithology) have previously successfully been recognized and quantified using a variety of qualitative, quantitative and hybrid methods in a wide range of study sites. However, available data typically do not allow to investigate the effect that earlier landslides have on intrinsic factors and hence on follow-up landslides. Therefore, existing methods cannot account for the potentially complex susceptibility changes caused by landslide events. In this study, we used a substantially different alternative approach to shed light on the potential effect of earlier landslides using a multi-temporal dataset of landslide occurrence containing 17 time slices. Spatial overlap and the time interval between landslides play key roles in our work. We quantified the degree to which landslides preferentially occur in locations where landslides occurred previously, how long such an effect is noticeable, and how landslides are spatially associated over time. We also investigated whether overlap with previous landslides causes differences in landslide geometric properties. We found that overlap among landslides demonstrates a clear legacy effect (path dependency) that has influence on the landslide affected area. Landslides appear to cause greater susceptibility for follow-up landslides over a period of about 10 years. Follow-up landslides are on average larger and rounder than landslides that do not follow earlier slides. The effect of earlier landslides on follow-up landslides has implications for understanding of the landslides evolution and the assessment of landslide susceptibility. 相似文献
8.
Validating gap-filling of Landsat ETM+ satellite images in the Golestan Province,Iran 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
M. Mohammdy H. R. Moradi H. Zeinivand A. J. A. M. Temme H. R. Pourghasemi H. Alizadeh 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2014,7(9):3633-3638
The Landsat series of satellites provides a valuable data source for land surface mapping and monitoring. Unfortunately, the scan line corrector (SLC) of the Landsat7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+) sensor failed on May 13, 2003. This problem resulted in about 22 % of the pixels per scene not being scanned and has seriously limited the scientific applications of ETM+ data. A number of methods have been developed to fill the gaps in the incorrect images. Most of these methods have problems in heterogeneous landscapes. We applied and validated a simple and effective gap-fill algorithm developed by the US Geological Survey to a study area in the Golestan Province in the north of Iran. This algorithm operates under the assumption that the same-class neighboring pixels around the unscanned pixels have similar spectral characteristics, and that these neighboring and unscanned pixels share patterns of spectral differences between dates. For validation, unsupervised land use classification was performed on both gap-filled SLC-off data and the original “sound” data set. Classification results and accuracies were very comparable. 相似文献
9.
Mohammady Majid Moradi Hamid Reza Zeinivand Hossein Temme A.J.A.M. Yazdani Mohammad Reza Pourghasemi Hamid Reza 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,133(1-2):459-471
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Land use change is an important determinant of hydrological processes and is known to affect hydrological parameters such as runoff volume, flood frequency,... 相似文献
10.