Influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the long-term record of floods over Bangladesh     

Wahiduzzaman  Md  Cheung  Kevin  Tang  Shaolei  Luo  Jing-Jia 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,147(1-2):173-184

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The present study analyzed a long-term record of major floods over Bangladesh under the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Bangladesh...  相似文献   

Effects of convective available potential energy,temperature and humidity on the variability of thunderstorm frequency over Bangladesh     

Wahiduzzaman  Md  Ali  Md. Arfan  Luo  Jing-Jia  Wang  Yu  Uddin  Md. Jalal  Shahid  Shamsuddin  Islam  A. R. M. Towfiqul  Mondal  Sanjit Kumar  Siddiki  Ubaydur Rahaman  Bilal  Muhammad  Qiu  Zhongfeng  Dambul  Ramzah  Eibek  Kutubuddin  Haque  Md. Emdadul 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,147(1-2):325-346

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The present study examines the effects of convective available potential energy (CAPE), temperature and humidity on the spatiotemporal variation of...  相似文献   

Modeling of tropical cyclone activity over the North Indian Ocean using generalised additive model and machine learning techniques: role of Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation     

Wahiduzzaman  Md  Luo  Jing-Jia 《Natural Hazards》2022,111(2):1801-1811

Natural Hazards - This study investigates the contribution of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) to the tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and assesses...  相似文献   

Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean region: the role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation     

Md Wahiduzzaman  Eric C. J. Oliver  Simon J. Wotherspoon  Jing-Jia Luo 《Climate Dynamics》2020,54(3):1571-1589

In this study, we have investigated the contribution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to the North Indian Ocean (NIO) tropical cyclone (TC) activity and seasonal predictability. A statistical seasonal prediction model was developed for the NIO region tropical cyclone genesis, trajectories and landfalls using the Southern Oscillation index (SOI: as a metric of ENSO) as a predictor. The forecast model utilised kernel density estimation (KDE), a generalised additive model (GAM), Euler integration, and a country mask. TCs from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre were analysed over the 35-year period from 1979 to 2013. KDE was used to model the distribution of cyclone genesis points and the cyclone tracks were estimated using the GAM, with velocities fit as smooth functions of location according to ENSO phase and TC season. The best predictor lead time scales for TC forecast potential were assessed from 1 to 6 months. We found that the SOI (as a proxy for ENSO) is a good predictor of TC behaviour 2-months in advance (70% skill). Two hindcast validation methods were applied to assess the reliability of the model. The model was found to be skillful in hindcasting NIO region TC activity for the pre and post monsoon season. The distribution of TC genesis, movement and landfall probabilities over the study period, as well as the hindcast probabilities of TC landfall during ENSO events, matched well against observations over most of the study domain. Overall, we found that the phase of ENSO has the potential to improve NIO region TC seasonal forecast skill by about 15% over climatological persistence.  相似文献   

North Atlantic forcing of autumn drought in Southwest China          下载免费PDF全文

Chaoxia Yuan  Wei Zhang  Yahan Zhong  Xinyu Lu  Jingchan Liu  Md Wahiduzzaman 《大气和海洋科学快报》2022,15(1):76-80

干旱持续时间长,因此往往和缓慢变化的海温异常相关.本文利用观测降水和NCEP-DOE再分析资料,探讨了北大西洋中高纬地区东北-西南走向的偶极子海温异常对我国西南地区秋季干旱的影响.结果 显示该偶极子海温异常可激发向东南方向传播的Rossby波,在印度北部和青藏高原西部引起正压气旋性环流和上升运动异常,并在我国西南地区引...  相似文献