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中国地球气候系统模式的发展及其模拟和预估 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
周天军 陈梓明 邹立维 陈晓龙 俞永强 王斌 包庆 鲍颖 曹剑 何编 胡帅 李立娟 李建 林岩銮 马利斌 乔方利 容新尧 宋振亚 唐彦丽 吴波 吴统文 辛晓歌 张贺 张明华 《气象学报》2020,78(3):332-350
地球气候系统模式是开展多学科、多圈层集成研究的重要平台,其发展是国际地学领域特别是全球变化领域竞争的前沿。中国的地球气候系统模式研发工作始于20世纪80年代,最近10年得到快速发展。研发格局上已经形成中国科学院、有关部委和高校三足鼎立的局面。文中在简要回顾中国地球气候系统模式早期发展历史的基础上,总结了中国参加第6次耦合模式比较计划的9个地球气候系统模式的技术特点,初步评估了中国4个模式对全球和东亚气候模拟的基本性能,分析了其在4种共享社会经济路径情景下对全球降水与温度的预估变化及其与平衡态气候敏感度的联系。最后,结合国际态势,从发展的角度提出未来中国气候模式研发工作需要加强的8个方向。 相似文献
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He Yujun Wang Bin Huang Wenyu Xu Shiming Wang Yong Liu Li Li Lijuan Liu Juanjuan Yu Yongqiang Lin Yanluan Huang Xiaomeng Peng Yiran 《Climate Dynamics》2020,54(7):3541-3559
Climate Dynamics - A new coupled data assimilation (CDA) system based on dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational data assimilation (DRP-4DVar) for decadal predictions is developed... 相似文献
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In recent decades, a greening tendency due to increased vegetation has been noted around the Taklimakan Desert(TD), but the impact of such a change on the local hydrological cycle remains uncertain. Here, we investigate the response of the local hydrological cycle and atmospheric circulation to a green TD in summer using a pair of global climate model(Community Earth System Model version 1.2.1) simulations. With enough irrigation to support vegetation growth in the TD, the modeling suggests first, that significant increases in local precipitation are attributed to enhanced local recycling of water, and second, that there is a corresponding decrease of local surface temperatures. On the other hand, irrigation and vegetation growth in this low-lying desert have negligible impacts on the large-scale circulation and thus the moisture convergence for enhanced precipitation. It is also found that the green TD can only be sustained by a large amount of irrigation water supply since only about one-third of the deployed water can be "recycled " locally. Considering this,devising a way to encapsulate the irrigated water within the desert to ensure more efficient water recycling is key for maintaining a sustainable, greening TD. 相似文献
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Hao Mingju Huang Jianbin Luo Yong Chen Xin Lin Yanluan Zhao Zongci Xu Ying 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,132(3-4):1073-1088
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Much uncertainty exists in reproducing Arctic temperature using different general circulation models (GCMs). Therefore, evaluating the performance of GCMs in... 相似文献
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数值预报是研究地球系统的重要工具,有助于加深科学家对大气、海洋、气候和环境等复杂系统之间相互作用和变化过程的理解,在防灾减灾、气候变化和环境治理等方面发挥着不可或缺的作用。随着模式复杂度和分辨率的提高,传统数值模式在气候变化研究和气候预测方面取得了迅速的进展,但也面临一些挑战,需要得到数据同化、集合耦合、高性能计算和不确定性分析等多方面的支持。而近年来,“AI+气象”的交叉研究在气象领域引起了广泛关注。基于多种深度学习架构的人工智能大模型,依托强大的计算资源和海量的数据进行训练,能够以新的科学范式进行高效数值预报。气象大模型不断涌现,一些科技公司如华为、英伟达、DeepMind、谷歌、微软等,以及国内外高校如清华大学、复旦大学、密歇根大学、莱斯大学等发布了多个涵盖临近预报、短时预报、中期预报和延伸期预报等不同领域的气象大模型。这标志着人工智能与气象领域的交叉融合已经达到新的高度。尽管气象大模型在现阶段取得了较大突破,但其发展仍然面临弱可解释性、泛化能力不足、极端事件预报强度偏低、智能预报结果过平滑、深度学习框架能力需要拓展等诸多挑战。 相似文献
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Tianjun Zhou Ziming Chen Liwei Zou Xiaolong Chen Yongqiang Yu Bin Wang Qing Bao Ying Bao Jian Cao Bian He Shuai Hu Lijuan Li Jian Li Yanluan Lin Libin Ma Fangli Qiao Xinyao Rong Zhenya Song Yanli Tang Bo Wu Tongwen Wu Xiaoge Xin He Zhang Minghua Zhang 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2020,34(1):1-19
The Earth-Climate System Model (ECSM) is an important platform for multi-disciplinary and multi-sphere integration research, and its development is at the frontier of international geosciences, especially in the field of global change. The research and development (R&D) of ECSM in China began in the 1980s and have achieved great progress. In China, ECSMs are now mainly developed at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, ministries, and universities. Following a brief review of the development history of Chinese ECSMs, this paper summarized the technical characteristics of nine Chinese ECSMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and preliminarily assessed the basic performances of four Chinese models in simulating the global climate and the climate in East Asia. The projected changes of global precipitation and surface air temperature and the associated relationship with the equilibrium climate sensitivity under four shared socioeconomic path scenarios were also discussed. Finally, combined with the international situation, from the perspective of further improvement, eight directions were proposed for the future development of Chinese ECSMs. 相似文献
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