Disaggregating radar-derived rainfall measurements in East Azarbaijan,Iran, using a spatial random-cascade model     

Fouladi Osgouei  Hojjatollah  Zarghami  Mahdi  Ashouri  Hamed 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(1-2):427-435

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The availability of spatial, high-resolution rainfall data is one of the most essential needs in the study of water resources. These data are extremely...  相似文献   

Stochastic-fuzzy multi criteria decision making for robust water resources management   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

Mahdi Zarghami  Ferenc Szidarovszky 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(3):329-339

All realistic Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problems in water resources management face various kinds of uncertainty. In this study the evaluations of the alternatives with respect to the criteria will be assumed to be stochastic. Fuzzy linguistic quantifiers will be used to obtain the uncertain optimism degree of the Decision Maker (DM). A new approach for stochastic-fuzzy modeling of MCDM problems will be then introduced by merging the stochastic and fuzzy approaches into the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) operator. The results of the new approach, entitled SFOWA, give the expected value and the variance of the combined goodness measure for each alternative, which are essential for robust decision making. In order to combine these two characteristics, a composite goodness measure will be defined. By using this measure the model will give more sensitive decisions to the stakeholders whose optimism degrees are different than that of the decision maker. The methodology will be illustrated by using a water resources management problem in the Central Tisza River in Hungary. Finally, SFOWA will be compared to other methods known from the literature to show its suitability for MCDM problems under uncertainty.  相似文献   

Reservoir operation using system dynamics under climate change impacts: a case study of Yamchi reservoir,Iran     

Mahdi Zarghami  Mohammad Reza Fotookian  Nasim Safari  Aydin Aslanzadeh 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(16):678

This paper proposes a decision support system for Yamchi reservoir operation in semi-arid region of Iran. The paper consists of the following steps: Firstly, the potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow are predicted. The study then presents the projections of future changes in temperature and precipitation under A2 scenario using the LARS-WG downscaling model and under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) in the northwestern of Iran. To do so, a general circulation model of HadCM3 is downscaled by using the LARS-WG model. As a result, the average temperature, for the horizon 2030 (2011–2030), will increase by 0.77 °C and precipitation will decrease by 11 mm. Secondly, the downscaled variables are used as input to the artificial neural network to investigate the possible impact of climate change on the runoffs. Thirdly, the system dynamics model is employed to model different scenarios for reservoir operation using the Vensim software. System dynamics is an effective approach for understanding the behavior of complex systems. Simulation results demonstrate that the water shortage in different sectors (including agriculture, domestic, industry, and environmental users) will be enormously increased in the case of business-as-usual strategy. In this research, by providing innovative management strategies, including deficit irrigation, the vulnerability of reservoir operation is reduced. The methodology is evaluated by using different modeling tests which then motivates using the methodology for other arid/semi-arid regions.  相似文献