Investigating potential future changes in surface water flooding hazard and impact     

Alison C. Rudd  Alison L. Kay  Steven C. Wells  Timothy Aldridge  Steven J. Cole  Elizabeth J. Kendon  Elizabeth J. Stewart 《水文研究》2020,34(1):139-149

Surface water flooding (SWF) is a recurrent hazard that affects lives and livelihoods. Climate change is projected to change the frequency of extreme rainfall events that can lead to SWF. Increasingly, data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are being used to investigate the potential water-related impacts of climate change; such assessments often focus on broad-scale fluvial flooding and the use of coarse resolution (>12 km) RCMs. However, high-resolution (<4 km) convection-permitting RCMs are now becoming available that allow impact assessments of more localised SWF to be made. At the same time, there has been an increasing demand for more robust and timely real-time forecast and alert information on SWF. In the UK, a real-time SWF Hazard Impact Model framework has been developed. The system uses 1-km gridded surface runoff estimates from a hydrological model to simulate the SWF hazard. These are linked to detailed inundation model outputs through an Impact Library to assess impacts on property, people, transport, and infrastructure for four severity levels. Here, a set of high-resolution (1.5 km and 12 km) RCM data has been used as input to a grid-based hydrological model over southern Britain to simulate Current (1996–2009) and Future (~2100s; RCP8.5) surface runoff. Counts of threshold-exceedance for surface runoff and precipitation (at 1-, 3- and 6-hr durations) are analysed. Results show that the percentage increases in surface runoff extremes, are less than those of precipitation extremes. The higher-resolution RCM simulates the largest percentage increases, which occur in winter, and the winter exceedance counts are greater than summer exceedance counts. For property impacts, the largest percentage increases are also in winter; however, it is the 12-km RCM output that leads to the largest percentage increase in impacts. The added-value of high-resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling is from capturing the more intense convective storms in surface runoff estimates.  相似文献   

Provenance of chalk tesserae from Brading Roman Villa, Isle of Wight, UK     

Alison Tasker  Ian P. Wilkinson  Mark Williams 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2011,122(5):933-937

Thin section petrographical analysis of chalk tesserae at Brading Roman Villa, Isle of Wight, England, identifies a range of planktonic foraminifera and the calcareous algal cyst Pithonella that identify the Late Cenomanian Rotalipora cushmani Biozone (BGS Foraminiferal Biozones 4iii to 7). The local chalk crop to the north of the villa includes rocks of R. cushmani Biozone age, and indicates a likely local, rather than long distance, source for the tesserae. Microfossils provide a powerful tool for identifying the provenance of artefacts in Roman Britain.  相似文献   

Hydroxyl stretching in phyllosilicates at high pressures and temperatures: an infrared spectroscopic study     

Alison R. Pawley  Raymond L. Jones 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2011,38(10):753-765

The hydroxyl stretching frequencies of four phyllosilicates have been measured at high pressures and temperatures using an externally heated diamond-anvil cell and synchrotron infrared spectroscopy. Spectra were measured up to 26, 31, 21 and 8 GPa at room temperature for samples of talc, pyrophyllite, muscovite and 10-Å phase, respectively. Spectra were also measured in the range 273–500 K at ambient pressure for all samples and at 8–9 GPa for talc and pyrophyllite. The frequency of the Mg₃OH band in talc increases with pressure due to the absence of hydrogen bonding. The different orientation of the hydroxyl group in pyrophyllite and muscovite leads to hydrogen bonding and a decrease in the frequency of the Al₂OH band with pressure. 10-Å phase is approximately equivalent to talc with the addition of interlayer H₂O. In a spectrum of a sample synthesised for 143 h, two hydroxyl stretching bands are clearly resolved on compression. One is the same as the Mg₃OH band in talc, indicating the presence of intra-layer hydroxyl in a talc-like environment with no hydrogen bonding. The other, which separates from the talc-like band at 1 GPa, is associated with intra-layer hydroxyl that is hydrogen bonded to interlayer H₂O. There are equivalent bands in high-pressure spectra of a sample of deuterated 10-Å phase, synthesised for 400 h. This sample shows a greater extent of hydrogen bonding at ambient pressure than the 143 h sample. For all of the phases studied, increasing temperature leads to a decrease in frequency for every hydroxyl stretching vibration, both at low and high pressures. The shifts in frequency with temperature are an order of magnitude greater than the shifts with pressure when normalised to previously measured structural parameters.  相似文献   

Market access,population density,and socioeconomic development explain diversity and functional group biomass of coral reef fish assemblages     

Tom D. Brewer  Joshua E. Cinner  Rebecca Fisher  Alison Green  Shaun K. Wilson 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(2):399-406

There is overwhelming evidence that many local-scale human activities (e.g. fishing) have a deleterious effect on coral reef fish assemblages. Our understanding of how broad social phenomena (e.g. socioeconomic development) affect the diversity and function of coral reef fish assemblages however, is still poor. Here, we use structural equation models to reveal how human population density, socioeconomic development, and market access affect fishing pressure and coral cover to, in turn, explain the diversity and biomass of key functional groups of reef fish assemblages within Solomon Islands. Fishing pressure is predominantly driven by both market access and local population density, and has a clear negative effect on the diversity and function of coral reef fishes. The strong positive effect of market access on fishing pressure makes clear the importance of understanding social-ecological linkages in the context of increasingly connected societies. This study highlights the need to address broad social phenomena rather than focusing on proximate threats such as fishing pressure, to ensure the continued flow of coral reef goods and services in this time of rapid global social and environmental change.  相似文献   

The multiple chronological techniques applied to the Lake Suigetsu SG06 sediment core,central Japan     

Richard A. Staff  Takeshi Nakagawa  Gordon Schlolaut  Michael H. Marshall  Achim Brauer  Henry F. Lamb  Christopher Bronk Ramsey  Charlotte L. Bryant  Fiona Brock  Hiroyuki Kitagawa  Johannes van der Plicht  Rebecca L. Payne  Victoria C. Smith  Darren F. Mark  Alison Macleod  Simon P. E. Blockley  Jean‐Luc Schwenninger  Pavel E. Tarasov  Tsuyoshi Haraguchi  Katsuya Gotanda  Hitoshi Yonenobu  Yusuke Yokoyama  Suigetsu Project Members 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2013,42(2):259-266

The varved sediment of Lake Suigetsu (central Japan) provides a valuable opportunity to obtain high‐resolution, multi‐proxy palaeoenvironmental data across the last glacial/interglacial cycle. In order to maximize the potential of this archive, a well‐constrained chronology is required. This paper outlines the multiple geochronological techniques being applied – namely varve counting, radiocarbon dating, tephrochronology (including argon–argon dating) and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) – and the approaches by which these techniques are being integrated to form a single, coherent, robust chronology. Importantly, we also describe here the linkage of the floating Lake Suigetsu (SG06) varve chronology and the absolute (IntCal09 tree‐ring) time scale, as derived using radiocarbon data from the uppermost (non‐varved) portion of the core. This tie‐point, defined as a distinct (flood) marker horizon in SG06 (event layer B‐07–08 at 1397.4 cm composite depth), is thus derived to be 11 255 to 11 222 IntCal09 cal. years BP (68.2% probability range).  相似文献   

A 2000‐year lipid biomarker record preserved in a stalagmite from north‐west Scotland     

Alison J. Blyth  Andy Baker  Louise E. Thomas  Peter Van Calsteren 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(3):326-334

Previous studies on lipid biomarkers preserved in Chinese stalagmites have indicated that ratios of low‐molecular‐weight (LMW) to high‐molecular‐weight (HMW) n‐alkanes, n‐alkan‐2‐ones, n‐alkanols and n‐alkanoic acids can be used as an index of vegetation versus microbial organic matter input to the system and, by extension, a marker of climatic changes, with increases in the proportion of LMW compounds coinciding with colder periods. Here we test whether this hypothesis is equally applicable to a different geographical region (north‐west Scotland), by examining a stalagmite record of the past 200 years, and a wider range of lipid markers. We also test the applicability of other lipid proxies in this context, including the use of n‐alkane ratios, to interpret vegetation changes, and unsaturated alkanoic acid ratios as climatic indicators. The results show that lipid proxies preserved in stalagmites, and especially those related to vegetation, are potentially extremely useful in palaeoenvironmental research. Of particular value is the use of C₂₇/C₃₁ n‐alkane ratios as a proxy for vegetation change, clearly indicating variations between herbaceous and arboreal cover. This proxy has now been successfully applied to samples from diverse environments, and can be considered sufficiently robust to be of use in analysing future stalagmite records. It will be of particular value in areas where reliable pollen records are not available, as is often the case with deeper cave deposits. However, the division between LMW and HMW aliphatic compounds is not a clear‐cut case of microbial versus plant activity, with the changes in LMW compounds relating more closely to those in their HMW analogues than in specific bacterial biomarkers. The use of unsaturated alkanoic acid ratios here gives conflicting results, with the observed variation through time depending on the isomer measured. The discrepancies between the findings of this study and previous work are likely to be due to the varying controls on the lipids (original organic matter input, and compound degradation), which in turn will be affected by whether the main climatic limiting factor on the soil is temperature or precipitation. This suggests that lipid proxies preserved in stalagmites must be interpreted with care, particularly in the case of bacterial compounds which may be derived from within the cave or from the soil. However, many of these issues can be resolved by the use of multi‐proxy studies. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Analysis of the Characteristics of Low-Latitude GPS Amplitude Scintillation Measured During Solar Maximum Conditions and Implications for Receiver Performance   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alison de Oliveira Moraes  Fabiano da Silveira Rodrigues  Waldecir Jo?o Perrella  Eurico Rodrigues de Paula 《Surveys in Geophysics》2012,33(5):1107-1131

Ionospheric scintillations are fluctuations in the phase and/or amplitude of trans-ionospheric radio signals caused by electron density irregularities in the ionosphere. A better understanding of the scintillation pattern is important to make a better assessment of GPS receiver performance, for instance. Additionally, scintillation can be used as a tool for remote sensing of ionospheric irregularities. Therefore, the study of ionospheric scintillation has both scientific as well as technological implications. In the past few years, there has been a significant advance in the methods for analysis of scintillation and in our understanding of the impact of scintillation on GPS receiver performance. In this work, we revisit some of the existing methods of analysis of scintillation, propose an alternative approach, and apply these techniques in a comprehensive study of the characteristics of amplitude scintillation. This comprehensive study made use of 32?days of high-rate (50?Hz) measurements made by a GPS-based scintillation monitor located in S?o José dos Campos, Brazil (23.2°S, 45.9°W, ?17.5° dip latitude) near the Equatorial Anomaly during high solar flux conditions. The variability of the decorrelation time (τ₀) of scintillation patterns is presented as a function of scintillation severity index (S ₄). We found that the values of τ₀ tend to decrease with the increase of S ₄, confirming the results of previous studies. In addition, we found that, at least for the measurements made during this campaign, averaged values of τ₀ (for fixed S ₄ index values) did not vary much as a function of local time. Our results also indicate a significant impact of τ₀ in the GPS carrier loop performance for S ₄?≥?0.7. An alternative way to compute the probability of cycle slip that takes into account the fading duration time is also presented. The results of this approach show a 38% probability of cycle slips during strong scintillation scenarios (S ₄ close to 1 and τ₀ near 0.2?s). Finally, we present results of an analysis of the individual amplitude fades observed in our set of measurements. This analysis suggests that users operating GPS receivers with C/N ₀ thresholds around 30?dB-Hz and above can be affected significantly by low-latitude scintillation.  相似文献   

The Marine Planning Framework for South Australia: A new ecosystem-based zoning policy for marine management     

Val Day  Rosemary PaxinosJon Emmett  Alison WrightMeg Goecker 《Marine Policy》2008

The Marine Planning Framework for South Australia is a new large-scale, ecosystem-based zoning policy for management of development and use in the marine environment. Utilising the Geographic Information System (GIS), the model establishes four ecologically rated zones, derived from known ecological criteria. A series of goals, objectives and strategies represent the desired outcomes for each of the ecologically rated zones. A Performance Assessment System (PAS) will subsequently evaluate the success of the marine plans. Implementation will be supported by a collaborative whole-of-government approach. Marine plans will facilitate the delivery of long-term protection to the marine environment as a whole ecosystem, whilst enabling a broad range of activities to occur in a sustainable manner.  相似文献   

Petrological imaging of an active pluton beneath Cerro Uturuncu,Bolivia     

Duncan D. Muir  Jon D. Blundy  Michael C. Hutchinson  Alison C. Rust 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,167(3):1-25

Uturuncu is a dormant volcano in the Altiplano of SW Bolivia. A present day ~70 km diameter interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) anomaly roughly centred on Uturuncu’s edifice is believed to be a result of magma intrusion into an active crustal pluton. Past activity at the volcano, spanning 0.89 to 0.27 Ma, is exclusively effusive and almost all lavas and domes are dacitic with phenocrysts of plagioclase, orthopyroxene, biotite, ilmenite and Ti-magnetite plus or minus quartz, and microlites of plagioclase and orthopyroxene set in rhyolitic groundmass glass. Plagioclase-hosted melt inclusions (MI) are rhyolitic with major element compositions that are similar to groundmass glasses. H₂O concentrations plotted versus incompatible elements for individual samples describe a trend typical of near-isobaric, volatile-saturated crystallisation. At 870 °C, the average magma temperature calculated from Fe–Ti oxides, the average H₂O of 3.2 ± 0.7 wt% and CO₂ typically <160 ppm equate to MI trapping pressures of 50–120 MPa, approximately 2–4.5 km below surface. Such shallow storage precludes the role of dacite magma emplacement into pre-eruptive storage regions as being the cause of the observed InSAR anomaly. Storage pressures, whole-rock (WR) chemistry and phase assemblage are remarkably consistent across the eruptive history of the volcano, although magmatic temperatures calculated from Fe–Ti oxide geothermometry, zircon saturation thermometry using MI and orthopyroxene-melt thermometry range from 760 to 925 °C at NNO ± 1 log. This large temperature range is similar to that of saturation temperatures of observed phases in experimental data on Uturuncu dacites. The variation in calculated temperatures is attributed to piecemeal construction of the active pluton by successive inputs of new magma into a growing volume of plutonic mush. Fluctuating temperatures within the mush can account for sieve-textured cores and complex zoning in plagioclase phenocrysts, resorption of quartz and biotite phenocrysts and apatite microlites. That Fe–Ti oxide temperatures vary by ~50–100 °C in a single thin section indicates that magmas were not homogenised effectively prior to eruption. Phenocryst contents do not correlate with calculated magmatic temperatures, consistent with crystal entrainment from the mush during magma ascent and eruption. Microlites grew during ascent from the magma storage region. Variability in the proportion of microlites is attributed to differing ascent and effusion rates with faster rates in general for lavas >0.5 Ma compared to those <0.5 Ma. High microlite contents of domes indicate that effusion rates were probably slowest in dome-forming eruptions. Linear trends in WR major and trace element chemistries, highly variable, bimodal mineral compositions, and the presence of mafic enclaves in lavas demonstrate that intrusion of more mafic magmas into the evolving, shallow plutonic mush also occurred further amplifying local temperature fluctuations. Crystallisation and resorption of accessory phases, particularly ilmenite and apatite, can be detected in MI and groundmass glass trace element covariation trends, which are oblique to WRs. Marked variability of Ba, Sr and La in MI can be attributed to temperature-controlled, localised crystallisation of plagioclase, orthopyroxene and biotite within the evolving mush.  相似文献   

The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: the environmental dependence of galaxy star formation rates near clusters     

Ian Lewis  Michael Balogh  Roberto De Propris  Warrick Couch  Richard Bower  Alison Offer  Joss Bland-Hawthorn  Ivan K. Baldry  Carlton Baugh  Terry Bridges  Russell Cannon  Shaun Cole  Matthew Colless  Chris Collins  Nicholas Cross  Gavin Dalton  Simon P. Driver  George Efstathiou  Richard S. Ellis  Carlos S. Frenk  Karl Glazebrook  Edward Hawkins  Carole Jackson  Ofer Lahav  Stuart Lumsden  Steve Maddox  Darren Madgwick  Peder Norberg  John A. Peacock  Will Percival  Bruce A. Peterson  Will Sutherland  Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,334(3):673-683

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